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Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices

Author

Listed:
  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Roman Kräussl
  • Joshua M. Pollet

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected return of private equity using market prices of publicly traded funds of funds holding unlisted private equity funds and of publicly traded private equity funds participating directly in private equity transactions. We find that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns between −0.5% and 2% per year. In addition, private equity has a market beta close to one and a positive beta on the SMB factor. These listed funds exhibit greater systematic risk than an index based on the self-reported net asset value of unlisted private equity funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua M. Pollet, 2015. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(12), pages 3269-3302.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:28:y:2015:i:12:p:3269-3302.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhv046
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    Cited by:

    1. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
    2. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    3. Agarwal, Vikas & Barber, Brad M. & Cheng, Si & Hameed, Allaudeen & Shanker, Harshini & Yasuda, Ayako, 2023. "Do investors overvalue startups? Evidence from the junior stakes of mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 23-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    4. Maurice McCourt, 2022. "Permanent private equity: Market performance and transactions," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 339-383, June.
    5. Boyer, Brian & Nadauld, Taylor D. & Vorkink, Keith P. & Weisbach, Michael S., 2018. "Private Equity Indices Based on Secondary Market Transactions," Working Paper Series 2018-21, Ohio State University, Charles A. Dice Center for Research in Financial Economics.
    6. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    7. Matthias Huss & Heinz Zimmermann, 2018. "The Pricing of Liquidity Risk in Buyout Funds – A Public Market Perspective," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 70(3), pages 285-312, July.
    8. Kräussl, Roman & Pollet, Joshua M. & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2023. "Closed-end funds and discount control mechanisms," CFS Working Paper Series 707, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    9. A. Dyck & L. Pomorski, 2016. "Investor Scale and Performance in Private Equity Investments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1081-1106.
    10. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan & Ruediger Stucke, 2020. "Has Persistence Persisted in Private Equity? Evidence from Buyout and Venture Capital Funds," NBER Working Papers 28109, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Prosper Lamothe-Fernández & Eduardo García-Argüelles & Sergio Manuel Fernández-Miguélez & Omar Hassani-Zerrouk, 2025. "Determining Drivers of Private Equity Return with Computational Approaches," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 65(1), pages 483-505, January.
    12. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2023. "Small Business Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Business Credit Card Securitization Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 389-425, February.
    13. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
    14. Godwin, Alexander, 2022. "Estimating illiquid asset class alpha and beta using secondary transaction prices," MPRA Paper 112510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    15. Vikas Agarwal & Brad Barber & Si Cheng & Allaudeen Hameed & Ayako Yasuda, 2023. "Private Company Valuations by Mutual Funds," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 27(2), pages 693-738.
    16. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Bircan, Cagatay & Biesinger, Markus, 2020. "Value Creation in Private Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    17. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2014. "Valuing Private Equity," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 1977-2021.
    18. Kallenos, Theodosis L. & Nishiotis, George P., 2023. "Market-based private equity returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 157(C).
    19. Douglas Cumming & Grant Fleming & Sofia A. Johan, 2011. "Institutional Investment in Listed Private Equity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(3), pages 594-618, June.
    20. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    21. Kurtović, Hrvoje & Markarian, Garen, 2024. "Tail risks and private equity performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C).

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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