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Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices

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  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Roman Kräussl
  • Joshua M. Pollet

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected return of private equity using market prices of publicly traded funds of funds holding unlisted private equity funds and of publicly traded private equity funds participating directly in private equity transactions. We find that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns between −0.5% and 2% per year. In addition, private equity has a market beta close to one and a positive beta on the SMB factor. These listed funds exhibit greater systematic risk than an index based on the self-reported net asset value of unlisted private equity funds.

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  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua M. Pollet, 2015. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 28(12), pages 3269-3302.
  • Handle: RePEc:oup:rfinst:v:28:y:2015:i:12:p:3269-3302.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.1093/rfs/hhv046
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    Cited by:

    1. Matthias Huss & Heinz Zimmermann, 2018. "The Pricing of Liquidity Risk in Buyout Funds – A Public Market Perspective," Schmalenbach Business Review, Springer;Schmalenbach-Gesellschaft, vol. 70(3), pages 285-312, July.
    2. Godwin, Alexander, 2022. "Estimating illiquid asset class alpha and beta using secondary transaction prices," MPRA Paper 112510, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Brian H. Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2023. "Discount‐Rate Risk in Private Equity: Evidence from Secondary Market Transactions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(2), pages 835-885, April.
    4. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan & Ruediger Stucke, 2020. "Has Persistence Persisted in Private Equity? Evidence from Buyout and Venture Capital Funds," Working Papers 2020-167, Becker Friedman Institute for Research In Economics.
    5. Ljungqvist, Alexander & Bircan, Cagatay & Biesinger, Markus, 2020. "Value Creation in Private Equity," CEPR Discussion Papers 14676, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    6. Kräussl, Roman & Pollet, Joshua M. & Stefanova, Denitsa, 2023. "Closed-end funds and discount control mechanisms," CFS Working Paper Series 707, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
    7. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
    8. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, in: G.M. Constantinides & M. Harris & R. M. Stulz (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Finance, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 573-648, Elsevier.
    9. Tereza Tykvová, 2018. "Venture capital and private equity financing: an overview of recent literature and an agenda for future research," Journal of Business Economics, Springer, vol. 88(3), pages 325-362, May.
    10. Brian Boyer & Taylor D. Nadauld & Keith P. Vorkink & Michael S. Weisbach, 2018. "Private Equity Indices Based on Secondary Market Transactions," NBER Working Papers 25207, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    11. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2014. "Valuing Private Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 1977-2021.
    12. Agarwal, Vikas & Barber, Brad M. & Cheng, Si & Hameed, Allaudeen & Shanker, Harshini & Yasuda, Ayako, 2023. "Do investors overvalue startups? Evidence from the junior stakes of mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 23-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    13. Agarwal, Vikas & Barber, Brad M. & Cheng, Si & Hameed, Allaudeen & Yasuda, Ayako, 2021. "Private company valuations by mutual funds," CFR Working Papers 21-09, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    14. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.
    15. Douglas Cumming & Grant Fleming & Sofia A. Johan, 2011. "Institutional Investment in Listed Private Equity," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 17(3), pages 594-618, June.
    16. A. Dyck & L. Pomorski, 2016. "Investor Scale and Performance in Private Equity Investments," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 20(3), pages 1081-1106.
    17. Maurice McCourt, 2022. "Permanent private equity: Market performance and transactions," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 45(2), pages 339-383, June.
    18. Matthias Fleckenstein & Francis A. Longstaff, 2023. "Small Business Equity Returns: Empirical Evidence from the Business Credit Card Securitization Market," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 78(1), pages 389-425, February.

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    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates

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