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Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices

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  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh
  • Roman Kräussl
  • Joshua Pollet

Abstract

We estimate the risk and expected returns of private equity investments based on the market prices of exchange-traded funds of funds that invest in unlisted private equity funds. Our results indicate that the market expects unlisted private equity funds to earn abnormal returns of approximately 1% per year. We also find that the market expects listed private equity funds to earn zero or marginally negative abnormal returns net of fees. Both listed and unlisted private equity funds have market betas close to one and positive factor loadings on the Fama-French SMB factor. Private equity fund returns are positively related to GDP growth and negatively related to the credit spread. In addition, we find that market returns of exchange traded funds of funds and listed private equity funds predict changes in self-reported book values of unlisted private equity funds.

Suggested Citation

  • Narasimhan Jegadeesh & Roman Kräussl & Joshua Pollet, 2009. "Risk and Expected Returns of Private Equity Investments: Evidence Based on Market Prices," NBER Working Papers 15335, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:15335
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Robert S. Harris & Tim Jenkinson & Steven N. Kaplan, 2014. "Private Equity Performance: What Do We Know?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 69(5), pages 1851-1882, October.
    2. Rin, Marco Da & Hellmann, Thomas & Puri, Manju, 2013. "A Survey of Venture Capital Research," Handbook of the Economics of Finance, Elsevier.
    3. repec:spr:jbecon:v:88:y:2018:i:3:d:10.1007_s11573-017-0874-4 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Morten Sorensen & Neng Wang & Jinqiang Yang, 2014. "Valuing Private Equity," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(7), pages 1977-2021.
    5. Robinson, David T. & Sensoy, Berk A., 2016. "Cyclicality, performance measurement, and cash flow liquidity in private equity," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 521-543.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • G12 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Asset Pricing; Trading Volume; Bond Interest Rates
    • G24 - Financial Economics - - Financial Institutions and Services - - - Investment Banking; Venture Capital; Brokerage

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