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Advances in forecast evaluation

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Yin, Anwen, 2015. "Forecasting and model averaging with structural breaks," ISU General Staff Papers 201501010800005727, Iowa State University, Department of Economics.
  2. Galvão, Ana Beatriz, 2013. "Changes in predictive ability with mixed frequency data," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(3), pages 395-410.
  3. Anwen Yin, 2022. "Does the kitchen‐sink model work forecasting the equity premium?," International Review of Finance, International Review of Finance Ltd., vol. 22(1), pages 223-247, March.
  4. Shahzad Ahmad & Farooq Pasha, 2015. "A Pragmatic Model for Monetary Policy Analysis I: The Case of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 1-42.
  5. Tallman, Ellis W. & Zaman, Saeed, 2020. "Combining survey long-run forecasts and nowcasts with BVAR forecasts using relative entropy," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 36(2), pages 373-398.
  6. Ayse Kabukcuoglu & Enrique Martínez-García, 2016. "What Helps Forecast U.S. Inflation?—Mind the Gap!," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1615, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  7. Ahmed, Shamim & Tsvetanov, Daniel, 2016. "The predictive performance of commodity futures risk factors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 71(C), pages 20-36.
  8. Filip Stanek, 2021. "Optimal Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation under Stationarity," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp712, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
  9. Pincheira, Pablo M. & West, Kenneth D., 2016. "A comparison of some out-of-sample tests of predictability in iterated multi-step-ahead forecasts," Research in Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(2), pages 304-319.
  10. Baumeister, Christiane & Kilian, Lutz & Lee, Thomas K., 2014. "Are there gains from pooling real-time oil price forecasts?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 46(S1), pages 33-43.
  11. Sekkel, Rodrigo M., 2015. "Balance sheets of financial intermediaries: Do they forecast economic activity?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 263-275.
  12. Nicolas S. Magner & Nicolás Hardy & Tiago Ferreira & Jaime F. Lavin, 2023. "“Agree to Disagree”: Forecasting Stock Market Implied Volatility Using Financial Report Tone Disagreement Analysis," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 11(7), pages 1-16, March.
  13. Francesco Ravazzolo & Philip Rothman, 2013. "Oil and U.S. GDP: A Real-Time Out-of-Sample Examination," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 45(2-3), pages 449-463, March.
  14. Altug, Sumru & Çakmaklı, Cem, 2016. "Forecasting inflation using survey expectations and target inflation: Evidence for Brazil and Turkey," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 138-153.
  15. Tamás Kiss & Hoang Nguyen & Pär Österholm, 2021. "Modelling Returns in US Housing Prices—You’re the One for Me, Fat Tails," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(11), pages 1-17, October.
  16. Mayer, Walter J. & Liu, Feng & Dang, Xin, 2017. "Improving the power of the Diebold–Mariano–West test for least squares predictions," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(3), pages 618-626.
  17. Magdalena Grothe & Aidan Meyler, 2018. "Inflation Forecasts: Are Market-Based and Survey-Based Measures Informative?," International Journal of Financial Research, International Journal of Financial Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 9(1), pages 171-188, January.
  18. Boneva, Lena & Fawcett, Nicholas & Masolo, Riccardo M. & Waldron, Matt, 2019. "Forecasting the UK economy: Alternative forecasting methodologies and the role of off-model information," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(1), pages 100-120.
  19. Korobilis, Dimitris & Pettenuzzo, Davide, 2019. "Adaptive hierarchical priors for high-dimensional vector autoregressions," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 212(1), pages 241-271.
  20. Michael D. Bauer & Glenn D. Rudebusch, 2020. "Interest Rates under Falling Stars," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 110(5), pages 1316-1354, May.
  21. McGurk, Zachary, 2020. "US real estate inflation prediction: Exchange rates and net foreign assets," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 53-66.
  22. Muhammad Nadim Hanif & Muhammad Jahanzeb Malik, 2015. "Evaluating the Performance of Inflation Forecasting Models of Pakistan," SBP Research Bulletin, State Bank of Pakistan, Research Department, vol. 11, pages 43-78.
  23. Christiane Baumeister & Lutz Kilian & Thomas K. Lee, 2017. "Inside the Crystal Ball: New Approaches to Predicting the Gasoline Price at the Pump," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(2), pages 275-295, March.
  24. Fabian Krüger & Todd E. Clark & Francesco Ravazzolo, 2017. "Using Entropic Tilting to Combine BVAR Forecasts With External Nowcasts," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 35(3), pages 470-485, July.
  25. Brent Meyer & Saeed Zaman, 2019. "The usefulness of the median CPI in Bayesian VARs used for macroeconomic forecasting and policy," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 57(2), pages 603-630, August.
  26. Carriero, Andrea & Mumtaz, Haroon & Theophilopoulou, Angeliki, 2015. "Macroeconomic information, structural change, and the prediction of fiscal aggregates," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 31(2), pages 325-348.
  27. Coroneo, Laura & Iacone, Fabrizio & Paccagnini, Alessia & Santos Monteiro, Paulo, 2023. "Testing the predictive accuracy of COVID-19 forecasts," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 606-622.
  28. Pablo Pincheira & Nicolás Hardy & Felipe Muñoz, 2021. "“Go Wild for a While!”: A New Test for Forecast Evaluation in Nested Models," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(18), pages 1-28, September.
  29. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2020. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples using fixed‐smoothing asymptotics," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 35(4), pages 391-409, June.
  30. Jin, Sainan & Corradi, Valentina & Swanson, Norman R., 2017. "Robust Forecast Comparison," Econometric Theory, Cambridge University Press, vol. 33(6), pages 1306-1351, December.
  31. Arai, Natsuki, 2014. "Using forecast evaluation to improve the accuracy of the Greenbook forecast," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(1), pages 12-19.
  32. Michael Dotsey & Shigeru Fujita & Tom Stark, 2018. "Do Phillips Curves Conditionally Help to Forecast Inflation?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(4), pages 43-92, September.
  33. Duffee, Gregory, 2013. "Forecasting Interest Rates," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.), Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 385-426, Elsevier.
  34. Todd E. Clark & Taeyoung Doh, 2011. "A Bayesian evaluation of alternative models of trend inflation," Research Working Paper RWP 11-16, Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City.
  35. Brent Meyer & Guhan Venkatu, 2012. "Trimmed-mean inflation statistics: just hit the one in the middle," Working Papers (Old Series) 1217, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland.
  36. Petropoulos, Fotios & Apiletti, Daniele & Assimakopoulos, Vassilios & Babai, Mohamed Zied & Barrow, Devon K. & Ben Taieb, Souhaib & Bergmeir, Christoph & Bessa, Ricardo J. & Bijak, Jakub & Boylan, Joh, 2022. "Forecasting: theory and practice," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(3), pages 705-871.
    • Fotios Petropoulos & Daniele Apiletti & Vassilios Assimakopoulos & Mohamed Zied Babai & Devon K. Barrow & Souhaib Ben Taieb & Christoph Bergmeir & Ricardo J. Bessa & Jakub Bijak & John E. Boylan & Jet, 2020. "Forecasting: theory and practice," Papers 2012.03854, arXiv.org, revised Jan 2022.
  37. Catherine Doz & Laurent Ferrara & Pierre-Alain Pionnier, 2020. "Business cycle dynamics after the Great Recession: An extended Markov-Switching Dynamic Factor Model," OECD Statistics Working Papers 2020/01, OECD Publishing.
  38. Barbara Rossi & Atsushi Inoue, 2012. "Out-of-Sample Forecast Tests Robust to the Choice of Window Size," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 30(3), pages 432-453, April.
  39. Lafond, François & Bailey, Aimee Gotway & Bakker, Jan David & Rebois, Dylan & Zadourian, Rubina & McSharry, Patrick & Farmer, J. Doyne, 2018. "How well do experience curves predict technological progress? A method for making distributional forecasts," Technological Forecasting and Social Change, Elsevier, vol. 128(C), pages 104-117.
  40. Yin, Anwen, 2020. "Equity premium prediction and optimal portfolio decision with Bagging," The North American Journal of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C).
  41. Groen, Jan J.J. & Kapetanios, George, 2016. "Revisiting useful approaches to data-rich macroeconomic forecasting," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 100(C), pages 221-239.
  42. Fawcett, Nicholas & Koerber, Lena & Masolo, Riccardo & Waldron, Matthew, 2015. "Evaluating UK point and density forecasts from an estimated DSGE model: the role of off-model information over the financial crisis," Bank of England working papers 538, Bank of England.
  43. Jonathan H. Wright, 2015. "Comment," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 12-13, January.
  44. Carriero, Andrea & Galvão, Ana Beatriz & Kapetanios, George, 2019. "A comprehensive evaluation of macroeconomic forecasting methods," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1226-1239.
  45. Nima Nonejad, 2022. "New Findings Regarding the Out-of-Sample Predictive Impact of the Price of Crude Oil on the United States Industrial Production," Journal of Business Cycle Research, Springer;Centre for International Research on Economic Tendency Surveys (CIRET), vol. 18(1), pages 1-35, March.
  46. Gagnon, Marie-Hélène & Power, Gabriel J. & Toupin, Dominique, 2023. "The sum of all fears: Forecasting international returns using option-implied risk measures," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 146(C).
  47. Tunaru, Diana, 2017. "Gaussian estimation and forecasting of the U.K. yield curve with multi-factor continuous-time models," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 119-129.
  48. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Predicting the exchange rate path. The importance of using up-to-date observations in the forecasts," Discussion Papers 934, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  49. Costantini, Mauro & Kunst, Robert M., 2021. "On using predictive-ability tests in the selection of time-series prediction models: A Monte Carlo evaluation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(2), pages 445-460.
  50. Kurmaş Akdoğan, 2019. "Size and sign asymmetries in house price adjustments," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 51(48), pages 5268-5281, October.
  51. Mikio Ito & Akihiko Noda & Tatsuma Wada, 2021. "Time-Varying Comovement of Foreign Exchange Markets: A GLS-Based Time-Varying Model Approach," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 9(8), pages 1-13, April.
  52. repec:awi:wpaper:0632 is not listed on IDEAS
  53. Dur, Ayşe & Martínez García, Enrique, 2020. "Mind the gap!—A monetarist view of the open-economy Phillips curve," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 117(C).
  54. Peter Reinhard HANSEN & Allan TIMMERMANN, 2012. "Choice of Sample Split in Out-of-Sample Forecast Evaluation," Economics Working Papers ECO2012/10, European University Institute.
  55. Zhu, Yinchu & Timmermann, Allan, 2022. "Conditional rotation between forecasting models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 231(2), pages 329-347.
  56. Francis X. Diebold, 2015. "Comparing Predictive Accuracy, Twenty Years Later: A Personal Perspective on the Use and Abuse of Diebold-Mariano Tests," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(1), pages 1-1, January.
  57. Timmermann, Allan & Zhu, Yinchu, 2021. "Conditional Rotation Between Forecasting Models," CEPR Discussion Papers 15917, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  58. Michael W. McCracken, 2020. "Diverging Tests of Equal Predictive Ability," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 88(4), pages 1753-1754, July.
  59. Hinterlang, Natascha, 2019. "Predicting Monetary Policy Using Artificial Neural Networks," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203503, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  60. Krüger, Fabian & Nolte, Ingmar, 2016. "Disagreement versus uncertainty: Evidence from distribution forecasts," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(S), pages 172-186.
  61. Mandalinci, Zeyyad, 2017. "Forecasting inflation in emerging markets: An evaluation of alternative models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 1082-1104.
  62. Hutter, Christian, 2020. "A new indicator for nowcasting employment subject to social security contributions in Germany," Journal for Labour Market Research, Institut für Arbeitsmarkt- und Berufsforschung (IAB), Nürnberg [Institute for Employment Research, Nuremberg, Germany], vol. 54(1), pages 1-4.
  63. Medel, Carlos, 2015. "Inflation Dynamics and the Hybrid Neo Keynesian Phillips Curve: The Case of Chile," MPRA Paper 62609, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Ahmed, Shamim & Liu, Xiaoquan & Valente, Giorgio, 2016. "Can currency-based risk factors help forecast exchange rates?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 75-97.
  65. Hinterlang, Natascha, 2020. "Predicting monetary policy using artificial neural networks," Discussion Papers 44/2020, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  66. Michael P Clements & Ana Beatriz Galvao, 2017. "Data Revisions and Real-time Probabilistic Forecasting of Macroeconomic Variables," ICMA Centre Discussion Papers in Finance icma-dp2017-01, Henley Business School, University of Reading.
  67. Wada, Tatsuma, 2022. "Out-of-sample forecasting of foreign exchange rates: The band spectral regression and LASSO," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 128(C).
  68. Dimitrios P. Louzis, 2017. "Macroeconomic and credit forecasts during the Greek crisis using Bayesian VARs," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 53(2), pages 569-598, September.
  69. Guizzardi, Andrea & Stacchini, Annalisa, 2015. "Real-time forecasting regional tourism with business sentiment surveys," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 213-223.
  70. Harvey, David I. & Leybourne, Stephen J. & Whitehouse, Emily J., 2017. "Forecast evaluation tests and negative long-run variance estimates in small samples," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 33(4), pages 833-847.
  71. Chalmovianský, Jakub & Porqueddu, Mario & Sokol, Andrej, 2020. "Weigh(t)ing the basket: aggregate and component-based inflation forecasts for the euro area," Working Paper Series 2501, European Central Bank.
  72. Federico D'Amario & Milos Ciganovic, 2022. "Forecasting Cryptocurrencies Log-Returns: a LASSO-VAR and Sentiment Approach," Papers 2210.00883, arXiv.org.
  73. Petrella, Ivan & Antolin-Diaz, Juan & Drechsel, Thomas, 2021. "Advances in Nowcasting Economic Activity: Secular Trends, Large Shocks and New Data," CEPR Discussion Papers 15926, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  74. Valentina Corradi & Sainan Jin & Norman R. Swanson, 2023. "Robust forecast superiority testing with an application to assessing pools of expert forecasters," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 38(4), pages 596-622, June.
  75. Yin, Anwen, 2019. "Out-of-sample equity premium prediction in the presence of structural breaks," International Review of Financial Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 65(C).
  76. Håvard Hungnes, 2020. "Equal predictability test for multi-step-ahead system forecasts invariant to linear transformations," Discussion Papers 931, Statistics Norway, Research Department.
  77. Laura Coroneo & Fabrizio Iacone, 2015. "Comparing predictive accuracy in small samples," Discussion Papers 15/15, Department of Economics, University of York.
  78. Jiahan Li & Ilias Tsiakas & Wei Wang, 2015. "Predicting Exchange Rates Out of Sample: Can Economic Fundamentals Beat the Random Walk?," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 13(2), pages 293-341.
  79. Mathijs Cosemans & Rik Frehen & Peter C. Schotman & Rob Bauer, 2016. "Estimating Security Betas Using Prior Information Based on Firm Fundamentals," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 29(4), pages 1072-1112.
  80. Michael W. McCracken, 2020. "Tests of Conditional Predictive Ability: Existence, Size, and Power," Working Papers 2020-050, Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis.
  81. Gonzalo, Jesús & Pitarakis, Jean-Yves, 2020. "Out of sample predictability in predictive regressions with many predictor candidates," UC3M Working papers. Economics 31554, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Economía.
  82. Busetti, Fabio & Marcucci, Juri, 2013. "Comparing forecast accuracy: A Monte Carlo investigation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 29(1), pages 13-27.
  83. Brent Meyer & Murat Tasci, 2015. "Lessons for forecasting unemployment in the United States: use flow rates, mind the trend," FRB Atlanta Working Paper 2015-1, Federal Reserve Bank of Atlanta.
  84. Engelke, Carola & Heinisch, Katja & Schult, Christoph, 2019. "How forecast accuracy depends on conditioning assumptions," IWH Discussion Papers 18/2019, Halle Institute for Economic Research (IWH).
  85. Boot, Tom & Pick, Andreas, 2020. "Does modeling a structural break improve forecast accuracy?," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 215(1), pages 35-59.
  86. Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
  87. Catherine L. Kling & Raymond W. Arritt & Gray Calhoun & David A. Keiser, 2017. "Integrated Assessment Models of the Food, Energy, and Water Nexus: A Review and an Outline of Research Needs," Annual Review of Resource Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 9(1), pages 143-163, October.
  88. McKnight, Stephen & Mihailov, Alexander & Rumler, Fabio, 2020. "Inflation forecasting using the New Keynesian Phillips Curve with a time-varying trend," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 383-393.
  89. Nima Nonejad, 2020. "A detailed look at crude oil price volatility prediction using macroeconomic variables," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 39(7), pages 1119-1141, November.
  90. Dichtl, Hubert & Drobetz, Wolfgang & Neuhierl, Andreas & Wendt, Viktoria-Sophie, 2021. "Data snooping in equity premium prediction," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(1), pages 72-94.
  91. Clark, Todd E. & Doh, Taeyoung, 2014. "Evaluating alternative models of trend inflation," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 30(3), pages 426-448.
  92. Fabian Krüger & Sebastian Lerch & Thordis Thorarinsdottir & Tilmann Gneiting, 2021. "Predictive Inference Based on Markov Chain Monte Carlo Output," International Statistical Review, International Statistical Institute, vol. 89(2), pages 274-301, August.
  93. Petri Kuosmanen & Juuso Vataja, 2017. "The return of financial variables in forecasting GDP growth in the G-7," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 50(3), pages 259-277, August.
  94. Guizzardi, Andrea & Pons, Flavio Maria Emanuele & Angelini, Giovanni & Ranieri, Ercolino, 2021. "Big data from dynamic pricing: A smart approach to tourism demand forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 37(3), pages 1049-1060.
  95. Pincheira, Pablo & Hardy, Nicolas, 2022. "Correlation Based Tests of Predictability," MPRA Paper 112014, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  96. Anwen Yin, 2021. "Forecasting the Market Equity Premium: Does Nonlinearity Matter?," International Journal of Economics and Finance, Canadian Center of Science and Education, vol. 13(5), pages 1-9, May.
  97. Johanna F. Ziegel & Fabian Kruger & Alexander Jordan & Fernando Fasciati, 2017. "Murphy Diagrams: Forecast Evaluation of Expected Shortfall," Papers 1705.04537, arXiv.org.
  98. Mauersberger, Felix, 2019. "Thompson Sampling: Endogenously Random Behavior in Games and Markets," VfS Annual Conference 2019 (Leipzig): 30 Years after the Fall of the Berlin Wall - Democracy and Market Economy 203600, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  99. Jean-Yves Pitarakis, 2020. "A Novel Approach to Predictive Accuracy Testing in Nested Environments," Papers 2008.08387, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
  100. Jamali, Ibrahim & Yamani, Ehab, 2019. "Out-of-sample exchange rate predictability in emerging markets: Fundamentals versus technical analysis," Journal of International Financial Markets, Institutions and Money, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 241-263.
  101. Daniel Borup & Jonas N. Eriksen & Mads M. Kjær & Martin Thyrsgaard, 2020. "Predicting bond return predictability," CREATES Research Papers 2020-09, Department of Economics and Business Economics, Aarhus University.
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