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Information aggregation and manipulation in an experimental market

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Cited by:

  1. Rajkamal Iyer & Asim Ijaz Khwaja & Erzo F. P. Luttmer & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Screening Peers Softly: Inferring the Quality of Small Borrowers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(6), pages 1554-1577, June.
  2. Julia Mortera & A. Philip Dawid, 2017. "A Note on Prediction Markets," Departmental Working Papers of Economics - University 'Roma Tre' 0215, Department of Economics - University Roma Tre.
  3. Paul Rhode & Koleman Strumpf, 2006. "Manipulating political stock markets: A field experiment and a century of observational data," Natural Field Experiments 00325, The Field Experiments Website.
  4. Paul J. Healy & Sera Linardi & J. Richard Lowery & John O. Ledyard, 2010. "Prediction Markets: Alternative Mechanisms for Complex Environments with Few Traders," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 56(11), pages 1977-1996, November.
  5. Florian Teschner & David Rothschild & Henner Gimpel, 2017. "Manipulation in Conditional Decision Markets," Group Decision and Negotiation, Springer, vol. 26(5), pages 953-971, September.
  6. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark Desantis & Kyle Hampton & Erik Kimbrough, 2019. "Reconsidering Rational Expectations and the Aggregation of Diverse Information in Laboratory Security Markets," Working Papers halshs-02146611, HAL.
  7. Snowberg, Erik & Wolfers, Justin & Zitzewitz, Eric, 2013. "Prediction Markets for Economic Forecasting," Handbook of Economic Forecasting, in: G. Elliott & C. Granger & A. Timmermann (ed.),Handbook of Economic Forecasting, edition 1, volume 2, chapter 0, pages 657-687, Elsevier.
  8. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Information Aggregation and the Cognitive Make-up of Traders," Working Papers 20-18, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  9. Deck, Cary & Lin, Shengle & Porter, David, 2013. "Affecting policy by manipulating prediction markets: Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 48-62.
  10. Bellenzier, Lucia & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Rotundo, Giulia, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 224-236.
  11. Corgnet, Brice & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2020. "The distribution of information and the price efficiency of markets," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 110(C).
  12. Bennouri, Moez & Gimpel, Henner & Robert, Jacques, 2011. "Measuring the impact of information aggregation mechanisms: An experimental investigation," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 78(3), pages 302-318, May.
  13. Choo, Lawrence & Kaplan, Todd R. & Zultan, Ro'i, 2019. "Manipulation and (mis)trust in prediction markets," FAU Discussion Papers in Economics 12/2019, Friedrich-Alexander University Erlangen-Nuremberg, Institute for Economics.
  14. Lawrence Choo & Todd R. Kaplan & Ro’i Zultan, 2019. "Information aggregation in Arrow–Debreu markets: an experiment," Experimental Economics, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 625-652, September.
  15. RYan Oprea & David Porter & Chris Hibbert & Robin Hanson & Dorina Tila, 2008. "Can Manipulators Mislead Prediction Market Observers?," Working Papers 08-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  16. Alfarano, Simone & Banal-Estanol, Albert & Camacho-Cuena, Eva & Iori, Giulia & Kapar, Burcu, 2020. "Centralized vs decentralized markets in the laboratory: The role of connectivity," MPRA Paper 99129, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  17. Veiga, Helena & Vorsatz, Marc, 2009. "Price manipulation in an experimental asset market," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 53(3), pages 327-342, April.
  18. Douglas Davis & Oleg Korenok & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2011. "An experimental analysis of contingent capital triggering mechanisms," Working Paper 11-01, Federal Reserve Bank of Richmond, revised 2011.
  19. Tālis J. Putniņš, 2012. "Market Manipulation: A Survey," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 26(5), pages 952-967, December.
  20. Brice Corgnet & Cary Deck & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2020. "Forecasting Skills in Experimental Markets: Illusion or Reality?," Working Papers 2020, Groupe d'Analyse et de Théorie Economique Lyon St-Étienne (GATE Lyon St-Étienne), Université de Lyon.
  21. John Dickhaut & Shengle Lin & David Porter & Vernon L. Smith, 2010. "Durability, Re-trading and Market Performance," Working Papers 10-01, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  22. John J. Nay & Martin Van der Linden & Jonathan M. Gilligan, 2016. "Betting and Belief: Prediction Markets and Attribution of Climate Change," Papers 1603.08961, arXiv.org, revised Jul 2016.
  23. Corgnet, Brice & Deck, Cary & DeSantis, Mark & Porter, David, 2018. "Information (non)aggregation in markets with costly signal acquisition," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 154(C), pages 286-320.
  24. Lionel Page & Robert T. Clemen, 2013. "Do Prediction Markets Produce Well‐Calibrated Probability Forecasts?-super-," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 123(568), pages 491-513, May.
  25. Jason Dana & Pavel Atanasov & Philip Tetlock & Barbara Mellers, 2019. "Are markets more accurate than polls? The surprising informational value of “just askingâ€," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 14(2), pages 135-147, March.
  26. Bo Cowgill & Eric Zitzewitz, 2015. "Corporate Prediction Markets: Evidence from Google, Ford, and Firm X," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 82(4), pages 1309-1341.
  27. Legge, Stefan & Schmid, Lukas, 2016. "Media attention and betting markets," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 304-333.
  28. Lian Jian & Rahul Sami, 2012. "Aggregation and Manipulation in Prediction Markets: Effects of Trading Mechanism and Information Distribution," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(1), pages 123-140, January.
  29. Scott Sumner, 2016. "Nudging the Fed Toward a Rules-Based Policy Regime," Cato Journal, Cato Journal, Cato Institute, vol. 36(2), pages 315-335, Spring/Su.
  30. Douglas Davis & Oleg Korenok & Edward Simpson Prescott, 2014. "An Experimental Analysis of Contingent Capital with Market‐Price Triggers," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 46(5), pages 999-1033, August.
  31. Sumner, Scott, 2015. "Nominal GDP futures targeting," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 17(C), pages 65-75.
  32. Jackson, Aaron L., 2010. "Policy futures markets with multiple goals," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 45-54, March.
  33. Peeters, R.J.A.P. & Wolk, K.L., 2014. "Eliciting and aggregating individual expectations: An experimental study," Research Memorandum 029, Maastricht University, Graduate School of Business and Economics (GSBE).
  34. Robin Hanson & Ryan Oprea, 2009. "A Manipulator Can Aid Prediction Market Accuracy," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 76(302), pages 304-314, April.
  35. Cary Deck & David Porter, 2013. "Prediction Markets In The Laboratory," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 27(3), pages 589-603, July.
  36. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 0. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-13.
  37. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2014. "Absatzprognosen: Eine empirische Bestandsaufnahme der unternehmerischen Praxis," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2014/04, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  38. Galanis, S. & Ioannou, C. & Kotronis, S., 2019. "Information Aggregation Under Ambiguity: Theory and Experimental Evidence," Working Papers 20/05, Department of Economics, City University London.
  39. Dorina Tila & David Porter, 2008. "Group Prediction in Information Markets With and Without Trading Information and Price Manipulation Incentives," Working Papers 08-06, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  40. Lionel Page & Christoph Siemroth, 2018. "How much information is incorporated in financial asset prices? Experimental Evidence," QuBE Working Papers 054, QUT Business School.
  41. Lin, Shengle & Rassenti, Stephen, 2012. "Are under- and over-reaction the same matter? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 39-61.
  42. Robin Hanson, 2006. "Designing real terrorism futures," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 128(1), pages 257-274, July.
  43. Vorsatz, Marc & Veiga, Helena, 2008. "Aggregation and dissemination of information in experimental asset markets in the presence of a manipulator," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS ws084110, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  44. Brice Corgnet & Mark DeSantis & David Porter, 2015. "Revisiting Information Aggregation in Asset Markets: Reflective Learning & Market Efficiency," Working Papers 15-15, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
  45. Riekhof, Hans-Christian & Riekhof, Marie-Catherine & Brinkhoff, Stefan, 2012. "Predictive Markets: Ein vielversprechender Weg zur Verbesserung der Prognosequalität im Unternehmen?," PFH Forschungspapiere/Research Papers 2012/07, PFH Private University of Applied Sciences, Göttingen.
  46. Tideman, T. Nicolaus & Plassmann, Florenz, 2010. "Pricing externalities," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 26(2), pages 176-184, June.
  47. Patrick Buckley & Fergal O’Brien, 2017. "The effect of malicious manipulations on prediction market accuracy," Information Systems Frontiers, Springer, vol. 19(3), pages 611-623, June.
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