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Are under- and over-reaction the same matter? Experimental evidence

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  • Lin, Shengle
  • Rassenti, Stephen

Abstract

Many argue that under- and over-reaction in asset prices are caused by inherently different factors. We design an asset market where information arrives sequentially over time to investigate the sources of these phenomena. We find that prices react insufficiently to news surprises and under-reacting drifts outnumber over-reacting reversals substantially. Under-reaction decreases in magnitude when information announcement is perfectly public, but still persists. We reject behavioral explanations based on overconfidence and disposition effect. Contrary to common beliefs, over-reaction patterns are present in our results of predominant slow adjustment of prices to surprises. With the knowledge of intrinsic value, we find that the reversal phase in over-reaction patterns is simply a sluggish adjustment, too. We propose a price inertia theory of under- and over-reaction: when information arrives sequentially over time, the market is characterized by a slow convergence toward intrinsic value; when news surprises are of the same signs, prices falls behind newly updated intrinsic values, manifesting under-reacting drifts; when news surprises change signs, prices again do not adjust quick enough to catch up with the new intrinsic values, manifesting a temporal pattern of seemingly over-reacting reversals.

Suggested Citation

  • Lin, Shengle & Rassenti, Stephen, 2012. "Are under- and over-reaction the same matter? Experimental evidence," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 84(1), pages 39-61.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:84:y:2012:i:1:p:39-61
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2012.07.004
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    2. Lucia Bellenzier & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Documents de travail du Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne 15078, Université Panthéon-Sorbonne (Paris 1), Centre d'Economie de la Sorbonne.
    3. Bellenzier, Lucia & Vitting Andersen, Jørgen & Rotundo, Giulia, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 224-236.
    4. John Griffin, 2015. "Risk Premia and Knightian Uncertainty in an Experimental Market Featuring a Long-Lived Asset," Fordham Economics Discussion Paper Series dp2015-01er:dp2015-01, Fordham University, Department of Economics.
    5. Lucia Bellenzier & J{o}rgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2016. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Papers 1602.07452, arXiv.org.
    6. repec:hal:wpaper:hal-01215620 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Lucia Bellenzier & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2016. "Contagion in the World's Stock Exchanges Seen as a Set of Coupled Oscillators," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) hal-01215620, HAL.
    8. Lucia Bellenzier & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Post-Print halshs-01242303, HAL.
    9. Lucia Bellenzier & Jørgen Vitting Andersen & Giulia Rotundo, 2015. "Contagion in the world's stock exchanges seen as a set of coupled oscillators," Université Paris1 Panthéon-Sorbonne (Post-Print and Working Papers) halshs-01242303, HAL.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Experimental finance; Under-reaction; Over-reaction; Behavior; Price inertia; Risk aversion;

    JEL classification:

    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D82 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Asymmetric and Private Information; Mechanism Design
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G14 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Information and Market Efficiency; Event Studies; Insider Trading
    • D53 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Financial Markets
    • D52 - Microeconomics - - General Equilibrium and Disequilibrium - - - Incomplete Markets

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