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Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Birge, John R. & Hortaçsu, Ali & Mercadal, Ignacia & Pavlin, J. Michael, 2018. "Limits to arbitrage in electricity markets: A case study of MISO," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 518-533.
  2. repec:dui:wpaper:1502 is not listed on IDEAS
  3. Gianfreda, Angelica & Grossi, Luigi, 2012. "Forecasting Italian electricity zonal prices with exogenous variables," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 34(6), pages 2228-2239.
  4. Uddin, Gazi Salah & Tang, Ou & Sahamkhadam, Maziar & Taghizadeh-Hesary, Farhad & Yahya, Muhammad & Cerin, Pontus & Rehme, Jakob, 2021. "Analysis of Forecasting Models in an Electricity Market under Volatility," ADBI Working Papers 1212, Asian Development Bank Institute.
  5. Mesbaholdin Salami & Farzad Movahedi Sobhani & Mohammad Sadegh Ghazizadeh, 2018. "Short-Term Forecasting of Electricity Supply and Demand by Using the Wavelet-PSO-NNs-SO Technique for Searching in Big Data of Iran’s Electricity Market," Data, MDPI, vol. 3(4), pages 1-26, October.
  6. Sinha, Pankaj & Mathur, Kritika, 2016. "Empirical Analysis of Developments in the Day Ahead Electricity Markets in India," MPRA Paper 72969, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  7. Antonio Naimoli & Giuseppe Storti, 2021. "Forecasting Volatility and Tail Risk in Electricity Markets," JRFM, MDPI, vol. 14(7), pages 1-17, June.
  8. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert & Sven Husmann, 2014. "Efficient Modeling and Forecasting of the Electricity Spot Price," Papers 1402.7027, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2014.
  9. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Modelling oil price and exchange rate co-movements," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 34(3), pages 419-440.
  10. Ioannidis, Filippos & Kosmidou, Kyriaki & Savva, Christos & Theodossiou, Panayiotis, 2021. "Electricity pricing using a periodic GARCH model with conditional skewness and kurtosis components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(C).
  11. Pao, H.T., 2009. "Forecasting energy consumption in Taiwan using hybrid nonlinear models," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 34(10), pages 1438-1446.
  12. Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2022. "Modeling Electricity Price Dynamics Using Flexible Distributions," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 10(10), pages 1-15, May.
  13. Simon Pezzutto & Gianluca Grilli & Stefano Zambotti & Stefan Dunjic, 2018. "Forecasting Electricity Market Price for End Users in EU28 until 2020—Main Factors of Influence," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(6), pages 1-18, June.
  14. Jo-Hui & Chen & Sabbor Hussain, 2022. "Jump Dynamics and Leverage Effect: Evidences from Energy Exchange Traded Fund (ETFs)," Journal of Applied Finance & Banking, SCIENPRESS Ltd, vol. 12(6), pages 1-7.
  15. Erdogdu, Erkan, 2016. "Asymmetric volatility in European day-ahead power markets: A comparative microeconomic analysis," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 398-409.
  16. Ciarreta, Aitor & Pizarro-Irizar, Cristina & Zarraga, Ainhoa, 2020. "Renewable energy regulation and structural breaks: An empirical analysis of Spanish electricity price volatility," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 88(C).
  17. Wild, Phillip & Hinich, Melvin J. & Foster, John, 2010. "Are daily and weekly load and spot price dynamics in Australia's National Electricity Market governed by episodic nonlinearity?," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1082-1091, September.
  18. repec:ipg:wpaper:2014-561 is not listed on IDEAS
  19. Möst, Dominik & Keles, Dogan, 2010. "A survey of stochastic modelling approaches for liberalised electricity markets," European Journal of Operational Research, Elsevier, vol. 207(2), pages 543-556, December.
  20. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick, 2016. "Electricity price forecasting using sale and purchase curves: The X-Model," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 59(C), pages 435-454.
  21. Qu, Hui & Duan, Qingling & Niu, Mengyi, 2018. "Modeling the volatility of realized volatility to improve volatility forecasts in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 767-776.
  22. Narayan, Paresh Kumar & Popp, Stephan, 2009. "Can the electricity market be characterised by asymmetric behaviour?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4364-4372, November.
  23. Pourghorban, Mojtaba & Mamipour, Siab, 2020. "Modeling and Forecasting the Electricity Price in Iran Using Wavelet-Based GARCH Model," MPRA Paper 115042, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  24. Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing, 2013. "Applying ARMA–GARCH approaches to forecasting short-term electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-166.
  25. Florian Ziel & Rick Steinert, 2015. "Electricity Price Forecasting using Sale and Purchase Curves: The X-Model," Papers 1509.00372, arXiv.org, revised Aug 2016.
  26. Zhao, Geya & Xue, Minggao & Cheng, Li, 2023. "A new hybrid model for multi-step WTI futures price forecasting based on self-attention mechanism and spatial–temporal graph neural network," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 85(PB).
  27. Pao, Hsiao-Tien & Fu, Hsin-Chia & Tseng, Cheng-Lung, 2012. "Forecasting of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and economic growth in China using an improved grey model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 40(1), pages 400-409.
  28. Petrella, Andrea & Sapio, Alessandro, 2012. "Assessing the impact of forward trading, retail liberalization, and white certificates on the Italian wholesale electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 40(C), pages 307-317.
  29. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Konstandatos, Otto & Rai, Alan, 2021. "Wind generation and the dynamics of electricity prices in Australia," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(C).
  30. Mirakyan, Atom & Meyer-Renschhausen, Martin & Koch, Andreas, 2017. "Composite forecasting approach, application for next-day electricity price forecasting," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 66(C), pages 228-237.
  31. Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
  32. S. Vijayalakshmi & G. P. Girish, 2015. "Artificial Neural Networks for Spot Electricity Price Forecasting: A Review," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 5(4), pages 1092-1097.
  33. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli, 2017. "International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 403-428, March.
  34. Pellegrini, Santiago & Ruiz, Esther & Espasa, Antoni, 2011. "Prediction intervals in conditionally heteroscedastic time series with stochastic components," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 308-319, April.
  35. Loi, Tian Sheng Allan & Ng, Jia Le, 2018. "Anticipating electricity prices for future needs – Implications for liberalised retail markets," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 212(C), pages 244-264.
  36. Andrea Petrella & Sandro Sapio, 2010. "No PUN intended: A time series analysis of the Italian day-ahead electricity prices," RSCAS Working Papers 2010/03, European University Institute.
  37. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Camadan, Ercument & Erten, Ibrahim Etem & Zhang, Alex Hongliang, 2023. "Market failure or politics? Understanding the motives behind regulatory actions to address surging electricity prices," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 180(C).
  38. repec:dui:wpaper:1318 is not listed on IDEAS
  39. Shuyu Li & Rongrong Li, 2017. "Comparison of Forecasting Energy Consumption in Shandong, China Using the ARIMA Model, GM Model, and ARIMA-GM Model," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 9(7), pages 1-19, July.
  40. Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
  41. Qu, Hui & Chen, Wei & Niu, Mengyi & Li, Xindan, 2016. "Forecasting realized volatility in electricity markets using logistic smooth transition heterogeneous autoregressive models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 68-76.
  42. Redl, Christian & Haas, Reinhard & Huber, Claus & Böhm, Bernhard, 2009. "Price formation in electricity forward markets and the relevance of systematic forecast errors," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 356-364, May.
  43. Wang, Jianzhou & Zhu, Suling & Zhang, Wenyu & Lu, Haiyan, 2010. "Combined modeling for electric load forecasting with adaptive particle swarm optimization," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 35(4), pages 1671-1678.
  44. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a safe haven or a hedge for the US dollar? Implications for risk management," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(8), pages 2665-2676.
  45. Alvarez-Ramirez, Jose & Escarela-Perez, Rafael, 2010. "Time-dependent correlations in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 269-277, March.
  46. Reboredo, Juan C., 2011. "How do crude oil prices co-move?: A copula approach," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(5), pages 948-955, September.
  47. Reboredo, Juan C., 2012. "Do food and oil prices co-move?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 456-467.
  48. Christian Redl & Derek Bunn, 2013. "Determinants of the premium in forward contracts," Journal of Regulatory Economics, Springer, vol. 43(1), pages 90-111, January.
  49. Tripathi Manas & Kumar Saurabh & Inani Sarveshwar Kumar, 2021. "Exchange Rate Forecasting Using Ensemble Modeling for Better Policy Implications," Journal of Time Series Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 13(1), pages 43-71, January.
  50. Godin, Frédéric & Ibrahim, Zinatu, 2021. "An analysis of electricity congestion price patterns in North America," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
  51. Mwampashi, Muthe Mathias & Nikitopoulos, Christina Sklibosios & Rai, Alan & Konstandatos, Otto, 2022. "Large-scale and rooftop solar generation in the NEM: A tale of two renewables strategies," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 115(C).
  52. Debnath, Kumar Biswajit & Mourshed, Monjur, 2018. "Forecasting methods in energy planning models," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 88(C), pages 297-325.
  53. Vivek Raj Rastogi & Joydip Dhar, 2012. "Effect of increasing the forecast horizon on correlation between forecasted returns and actual returns: an empirical analysis," International Journal of Accounting and Finance, Inderscience Enterprises Ltd, vol. 3(3), pages 193-206.
  54. Hammoudeh, Shawkat & Nguyen, Duc Khuong & Reboredo, Juan Carlos & Wen, Xiaoqian, 2014. "Dependence of stock and commodity futures markets in China: Implications for portfolio investment," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 21(C), pages 183-200.
  55. Aryanpur, Vahid & Fattahi, Mahshid & Mamipour, Siab & Ghahremani, Mahsa & Gallachóir, Brian Ó & Bazilian, Morgan D. & Glynn, James, 2022. "How energy subsidy reform can drive the Iranian power sector towards a low-carbon future," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 169(C).
  56. Jasiński, Tomasz, 2020. "Use of new variables based on air temperature for forecasting day-ahead spot electricity prices using deep neural networks: A new approach," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 213(C).
  57. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2020. "Variable renewable energy technologies in the Turkish electricity market: Quantile regression analysis of the merit-order effect," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 144(C).
  58. García-Martos, Carolina & Rodríguez, Julio & Sánchez, María Jesús, 2011. "Forecasting electricity prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(6), pages 1227-1239.
  59. Engelen, Steve & Norouzzadeh, Payam & Dullaert, Wout & Rahmani, Bahareh, 2011. "Multifractal features of spot rates in the Liquid Petroleum Gas shipping market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 88-98, January.
  60. Janczura, Joanna & Weron, Rafal, 2010. "An empirical comparison of alternate regime-switching models for electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1059-1073, September.
  61. Reboredo, Juan C., 2013. "Is gold a hedge or safe haven against oil price movements?," Resources Policy, Elsevier, vol. 38(2), pages 130-137.
  62. Pape, Christian & Hagemann, Simon & Weber, Christoph, 2016. "Are fundamentals enough? Explaining price variations in the German day-ahead and intraday power market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 376-387.
  63. Ziel, Florian & Steinert, Rick & Husmann, Sven, 2015. "Efficient modeling and forecasting of electricity spot prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 47(C), pages 98-111.
  64. Jun Maekawa & Bui Hien Hai & Sarana Shinkuma & Koji Shimada, 2018. "The Effect of Renewable Energy Generation on the Electric Power Spot Price of the Japan Electric Power Exchange," Energies, MDPI, vol. 11(9), pages 1-16, August.
  65. Papaioannou, George P. & Dikaiakos, Christos & Dagoumas, Athanasios S. & Dramountanis, Anargyros & Papaioannou, Panagiotis G., 2018. "Detecting the impact of fundamentals and regulatory reforms on the Greek wholesale electricity market using a SARMAX/GARCH model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 142(C), pages 1083-1103.
  66. He, Kaijian & Yu, Lean & Tang, Ling, 2015. "Electricity price forecasting with a BED (Bivariate EMD Denoising) methodology," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 91(C), pages 601-609.
  67. Bello, Antonio & Reneses, Javier & Muñoz, Antonio & Delgadillo, Andrés, 2016. "Probabilistic forecasting of hourly electricity prices in the medium-term using spatial interpolation techniques," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(3), pages 966-980.
  68. Sirin, Selahattin Murat & Yilmaz, Berna N., 2021. "The impact of variable renewable energy technologies on electricity markets: An analysis of the Turkish balancing market," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 151(C).
  69. Neenu C & T Mohamed Nishad, 2022. "Asymmetric Volatility and Leverage Effect in Stock Market: A Bibliometric Review," The Review of Finance and Banking, Academia de Studii Economice din Bucuresti, Romania / Facultatea de Finante, Asigurari, Banci si Burse de Valori / Catedra de Finante, vol. 14(1), pages 21-34, June.
  70. Souhir Ben Amor & Heni Boubaker & Lotfi Belkacem, 2022. "Predictive Accuracy of a Hybrid Generalized Long Memory Model for Short Term Electricity Price Forecasting," Papers 2204.09568, arXiv.org.
  71. Loutia, Amine & Mellios, Constantin & Andriosopoulos, Kostas, 2016. "Do OPEC announcements influence oil prices?," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 90(C), pages 262-272.
  72. Andrea Cervone & Ezio Santini & Sabrina Teodori & Donatella Zaccagnini Romito, 2014. "Electricity Price Forecast: a Comparison of Different Models to Evaluate the Single National Price in the Italian Energy Exchange Market," International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Econjournals, vol. 4(4), pages 744-758.
  73. Balli, Hatice Ozer & Tsui, Wai Hong Kan & Balli, Faruk, 2019. "Modelling the volatility of international visitor arrivals to New Zealand," Journal of Air Transport Management, Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 204-214.
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