Anticipating electricity prices for future needs – Implications for liberalised retail markets
Author
Abstract
Suggested Citation
DOI: 10.1016/j.apenergy.2017.11.092
Download full text from publisher
As the access to this document is restricted, you may want to search for a different version of it.
References listed on IDEAS
- Ediger, Volkan S. & Akar, Sertac, 2007. "ARIMA forecasting of primary energy demand by fuel in Turkey," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 1701-1708, March.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 1998.
"Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes,"
Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 66(1), pages 47-78, January.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P. & Bai, J., 1995. "Estimating and Testing Linear Models with Multiple Structural Changes," Cahiers de recherche 9552, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Tashpulatov, Sherzod N., 2013.
"Estimating the volatility of electricity prices: The case of the England and Wales wholesale electricity market,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 81-90.
- Sherzod N. Tashpulatov, 2011. "Estimating the Volatility of Electricity Prices: The Case of the England and Wales Wholesale Electricity Market," CERGE-EI Working Papers wp439, The Center for Economic Research and Graduate Education - Economics Institute, Prague.
- Nelson, Daniel B, 1991. "Conditional Heteroskedasticity in Asset Returns: A New Approach," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 59(2), pages 347-370, March.
- Bowden, Nicholas & Payne, James E., 2008. "Short term forecasting of electricity prices for MISO hubs: Evidence from ARIMA-EGARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3186-3197, November.
- Pircalabu, A. & Benth, F.E., 2017. "A regime-switching copula approach to modeling day-ahead prices in coupled electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 68(C), pages 283-302.
- Maslyuk, Svetlana & Smyth, Russell, 2008.
"Unit root properties of crude oil spot and futures prices,"
Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 36(7), pages 2591-2600, July.
- Svetlana Maslyuk & Russell Smyth, 2007. "Unit Root Properties of Crude Oil Spot and Futures Prices," Monash Economics Working Papers 40-07, Monash University, Department of Economics.
- Nils-Henrik M. von der Fehr & Petter Vegard Hansen, 2010.
"Electricity Retailing in Norway,"
The Energy Journal, , vol. 31(1), pages 25-46, January.
- Nils-Henrik M. von der Fehr & Petter Vegard Hansen, 2010. "Electricity Retailing in Norway," The Energy Journal, International Association for Energy Economics, vol. 0(Number 1), pages 25-46.
- von der Fehr, Nils-Henrik M. & Hansen, Petter Vegard, 2008. "Electricity Retailing in Norway," Memorandum 02/2009, Oslo University, Department of Economics.
- Nils-Henrik M. Von Der Fehr & Petter Vegard Hansen, 2009. "Electricity Retailing in Norway," EUI-RSCAS Working Papers 4, European University Institute (EUI), Robert Schuman Centre of Advanced Studies (RSCAS).
- Nils-Henrik M. Von Der Fehr & Petter Vegard Hansen, 2009. "Electricity Retailing in Norway," RSCAS Working Papers 2009/04, European University Institute.
- Ding, Zhuanxin & Granger, Clive W. J. & Engle, Robert F., 1993. "A long memory property of stock market returns and a new model," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 1(1), pages 83-106, June.
- Perron, Pierre, 1997.
"Further evidence on breaking trend functions in macroeconomic variables,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 80(2), pages 355-385, October.
- Perron, P., 1990. "Further Evidence On Breaking Trend Functions In Macroeconomics Variables," Papers 350, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Perron, P., 1994. "Further Evidence on Breaking Trend Functions in Macroeconomic Variables," Cahiers de recherche 9421, Centre interuniversitaire de recherche en économie quantitative, CIREQ.
- Joanna Janczura & Rafał Weron, 2012.
"Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices,"
AStA Advances in Statistical Analysis, Springer;German Statistical Society, vol. 96(3), pages 385-407, July.
- Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Lisi, Francesco & Nan, Fany, 2014. "Component estimation for electricity prices: Procedures and comparisons," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 143-159.
- Bollerslev, Tim, 1986.
"Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity,"
Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
- Tim Bollerslev, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," EERI Research Paper Series EERI RP 1986/01, Economics and Econometrics Research Institute (EERI), Brussels.
- Peter Reinhard Hansen & Zhuo Huang & Howard Howan Shek, 2012. "Realized GARCH: a joint model for returns and realized measures of volatility," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 27(6), pages 877-906, September.
- Loi, Tian Sheng Allan & Loo, Soh Leng, 2016. "The impact of Singapore’s residential electricity conservation efforts and the way forward. Insights from the bounds testing approach," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 98(C), pages 735-743.
- Afanasyev, Dmitriy O. & Fedorova, Elena A., 2016. "The long-term trends on the electricity markets: Comparison of empirical mode and wavelet decompositions," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 432-442.
- Weron, Rafal & Janczura, Joanna, 2010.
"Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity wholesale market prices,"
MPRA Paper
26628, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Joanna Janczura & Rafal Weron, 2011. "Efficient estimation of Markov regime-switching models: An application to electricity spot prices," HSC Research Reports HSC/11/02, Hugo Steinhaus Center, Wroclaw University of Technology.
- Simonato, Jean-Guy, 1992. "Estimation of GARCH process in the presence of structural change," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 40(2), pages 155-158, October.
- Huang, Zhuo & Liu, Hao & Wang, Tianyi, 2016. "Modeling long memory volatility using realized measures of volatility: A realized HAR GARCH model," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 52(PB), pages 812-821.
- Fulvio Corsi, 2009. "A Simple Approximate Long-Memory Model of Realized Volatility," Journal of Financial Econometrics, Oxford University Press, vol. 7(2), pages 174-196, Spring.
- Engle, Robert F & Lilien, David M & Robins, Russell P, 1987. "Estimating Time Varying Risk Premia in the Term Structure: The Arch-M Model," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 55(2), pages 391-407, March.
- Jushan Bai & Pierre Perron, 2003.
"Computation and analysis of multiple structural change models,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(1), pages 1-22.
- BAI, Jushan & PERRON, Pierre, 1998. "Computation and Analysis of Multiple Structural-Change Models," Cahiers de recherche 9807, Universite de Montreal, Departement de sciences economiques.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "MULTIPLEBREAKS: RATS procedure to perform multiple structural change analysis," Statistical Software Components RTS00138, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "RATS programs to replicate examples of Bai-Perron procedure," Statistical Software Components RTZ00008, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Tom Doan, "undated". "BAIPERRON: RATS procedure to perform Bai-Perron Test for Multiple Structural Changes," Statistical Software Components RTS00013, Boston College Department of Economics.
- Liu, Heping & Shi, Jing, 2013. "Applying ARMA–GARCH approaches to forecasting short-term electricity prices," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 152-166.
- Perron, Pierre & Vogelsang, Timothy J, 1992.
"Nonstationarity and Level Shifts with an Application to Purchasing Power Parity,"
Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(3), pages 301-320, July.
- Vogelsang, T.I. & Perron, P., 1991. "Nonstationary and Level Shifts With An Application To Purchasing Power Parity," Papers 359, Princeton, Department of Economics - Econometric Research Program.
- Lee, Chien-Chiang & Lee, Jun-De, 2009. "Energy prices, multiple structural breaks, and efficient market hypothesis," Applied Energy, Elsevier, vol. 86(4), pages 466-479, April.
- Junsoo Lee & Mark C. Strazicich, 2003. "Minimum Lagrange Multiplier Unit Root Test with Two Structural Breaks," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 85(4), pages 1082-1089, November.
- Sébastien Laurent, 2004. "Analytical Derivates of the APARCH Model," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 24(1), pages 51-57, August.
- Kristiansen, Tarjei, 2012. "Forecasting Nord Pool day-ahead prices with an autoregressive model," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 328-332.
- Galetovic, Alexander & Muñoz, Cristián M., 2011. "Regulated electricity retailing in Chile," Energy Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(10), pages 6453-6465, October.
- Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
- Manner, Hans & Türk, Dennis & Eichler, Michael, 2016. "Modeling and forecasting multivariate electricity price spikes," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 255-265.
Citations
Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
Cited by:
- Huang, Pei & Sun, Yongjun, 2019. "A robust control of nZEBs for performance optimization at cluster level under demand prediction uncertainty," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 215-227.
- Sulaima, Mohamad Fani & Dahlan, Nofri Yenita & Yasin, Zuhaila Mat & Rosli, Marlinda Mohd & Omar, Zulkiflee & Hassan, Mohammad Yusri, 2019. "A review of electricity pricing in peninsular Malaysia: Empirical investigation about the appropriateness of Enhanced Time of Use (ETOU) electricity tariff," Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, Elsevier, vol. 110(C), pages 348-367.
- Macedo, Daniela Pereira & Marques, António Cardoso & Damette, Olivier, 2021.
"The Merit-Order Effect on the Swedish bidding zone with the highest electricity flow in the Elspot market,"
Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(C).
- Daniela Pereira Macedo & António Cardoso Marques & Olivier Damette, 2021. "The Merit-Order Effect on the Swedish bidding zone with the highest electricity flow in the Elspot market," Post-Print hal-03726391, HAL.
- Liu, Luyao & Bai, Feifei & Su, Chenyu & Ma, Cuiping & Yan, Ruifeng & Li, Hailong & Sun, Qie & Wennersten, Ronald, 2022. "Forecasting the occurrence of extreme electricity prices using a multivariate logistic regression model," Energy, Elsevier, vol. 247(C).
Most related items
These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.- John D. Levendis, 2018. "Time Series Econometrics," Springer Texts in Business and Economics, Springer, number 978-3-319-98282-3, April.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Menelaos Karanasos & Stavroula Yfanti, 2019. "Macro-Financial Linkages in the High-Frequency Domain: The Effects of Uncertainty on Realized Volatility," CESifo Working Paper Series 8000, CESifo.
- Frömmel, Michael & Han, Xing & Kratochvil, Stepan, 2014. "Modeling the daily electricity price volatility with realized measures," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(C), pages 492-502.
- Papantonis, Ioannis & Rompolis, Leonidas & Tzavalis, Elias, 2023. "Improving variance forecasts: The role of Realized Variance features," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 39(3), pages 1221-1237.
- Noguera, José, 2013. "Oil prices: Breaks and trends," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 37(C), pages 60-67.
- Hiroyuki Kawakatsu, 2022. "Modeling Realized Variance with Realized Quarticity," Stats, MDPI, vol. 5(3), pages 1-25, September.
- Caporale, Guglielmo Maria & Kontonikas, Alexandros, 2009.
"The Euro and inflation uncertainty in the European Monetary Union,"
Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(6), pages 954-971, October.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro And Inflation Uncertainty In The European Monetary Union," Economics and Finance Discussion Papers 06-01, Economics and Finance Section, School of Social Sciences, Brunel University.
- Guglielmo Maria, Caporale & Alexandros , Kontonikas, 2007. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CELPE Discussion Papers 101, CELPE - CEnter for Labor and Political Economics, University of Salerno, Italy.
- Guglielmo Maria Caporale & Alexandros Kontonikas, 2006. "The Euro and Inflation Uncertainty in the European Monetary Union," CESifo Working Paper Series 1842, CESifo.
- Abderrazak Ben Maatoug & Rim Lamouchi & Russell Davidson & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2018.
"Modelling Foreign Exchange Realized Volatility Using High Frequency Data: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks,"
Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, Central European Journal of Economic Modelling and Econometrics, vol. 10(1), pages 1-25, March.
- Abderrazak Ben Maatoug & Rim Lamouchi & Russell Davidson & Ibrahim Fatnassi, 2018. "Modelling Foreign Exchange Realized Volatility Using High Frequency Data: Long Memory versus Structural Breaks," Post-Print hal-01982032, HAL.
- Mohammadi, Hassan & Su, Lixian, 2010. "International evidence on crude oil price dynamics: Applications of ARIMA-GARCH models," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 32(5), pages 1001-1008, September.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2014.
"Output Growth and its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation,"
Southern Economic Journal, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 80(3), pages 728-751, January.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working Papers 1205, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2012. "Output Growth and Its Volatility: The Gold Standard through the Great Moderation," Working papers 2012-11, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- Paniagua, Jordi & Sapena, Juan & Tamarit, Cecilio, 2017. "Sovereign debt spreads in EMU: The time-varying role of fundamentals and market distrust," Journal of Financial Stability, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 187-206.
- Fang, WenShwo & Miller, Stephen M., 2009.
"Modeling the volatility of real GDP growth: The case of Japan revisited,"
Japan and the World Economy, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 312-324, August.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2008. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working papers 2008-47, University of Connecticut, Department of Economics.
- WenShwo Fang & Stephen M. Miller, 2009. "Modeling the Volatility of Real GDP Growth: The Case of Japan Revisited," Working Papers 0904, University of Nevada, Las Vegas , Department of Economics.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000.
"Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance,"
Cambridge Books,
Cambridge University Press, number 9780521779654, September.
- Franses,Philip Hans & Dijk,Dick van, 2000. "Non-Linear Time Series Models in Empirical Finance," Cambridge Books, Cambridge University Press, number 9780521770415, October.
- Srikanta Kundu & Nityananda Sarkar, 2016. "Is the Effect of Risk on Stock Returns Different in Up and Down Markets? A Multi-Country Study," International Econometric Review (IER), Econometric Research Association, vol. 8(2), pages 53-71, September.
- Chen Liu & Chao Wang & Minh-Ngoc Tran & Robert Kohn, 2023. "Deep Learning Enhanced Realized GARCH," Papers 2302.08002, arXiv.org, revised Oct 2023.
- Vacca, Gianmarco & Zoia, Maria Grazia & Bagnato, Luca, 2022. "Forecasting in GARCH models with polynomially modified innovations," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 38(1), pages 117-141.
- Vasudeva N. R. Murthy & Natalya Ketenci, 2017. "Is technology still a major driver of health expenditure in the United States? Evidence from cointegration analysis with multiple structural breaks," International Journal of Health Economics and Management, Springer, vol. 17(1), pages 29-50, March.
- Qu, Hui & Duan, Qingling & Niu, Mengyi, 2018. "Modeling the volatility of realized volatility to improve volatility forecasts in electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(C), pages 767-776.
- Trucíos, Carlos, 2019. "Forecasting Bitcoin risk measures: A robust approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 35(3), pages 836-847.
- Dakpogan, Arnaud & Smit, Eon, 2018. "The effect of electricity losses on GDP in Benin," MPRA Paper 89545, University Library of Munich, Germany.
More about this item
Keywords
Electricity price forecasting; Retail competition; Welfare implications; Retail tariffs; Singapore electricity market; ARIMA and GARCH modelling;All these keywords.
Statistics
Access and download statisticsCorrections
All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:eee:appene:v:212:y:2018:i:c:p:244-264. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Catherine Liu (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.elsevier.com/wps/find/journaldescription.cws_home/405891/description#description .
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.