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Forecasting electricity prices and their volatilities using Unobserved Components

Listed author(s):
  • García-Martos, Carolina
  • Rodríguez, Julio
  • Sánchez, María Jesús
Registered author(s):

    The liberalization of electricity markets more than ten years ago in the vast majority of developed countries has introduced the need of modelling and forecasting electricity prices and volatilities, both in the short and long term.

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    File URL: http://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/pii/S0140988311001356
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    Article provided by Elsevier in its journal Energy Economics.

    Volume (Year): 33 (2011)
    Issue (Month): 6 ()
    Pages: 1227-1239

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    Handle: RePEc:eee:eneeco:v:33:y:2011:i:6:p:1227-1239
    DOI: 10.1016/j.eneco.2011.07.005
    Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.elsevier.com/locate/eneco

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    2. Huisman, Ronald & Huurman, Christian & Mahieu, Ronald, 2007. "Hourly electricity prices in day-ahead markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 29(2), pages 240-248, March.
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    6. Vehvilainen, Iivo & Pyykkonen, Tuomas, 2005. "Stochastic factor model for electricity spot price--the case of the Nordic market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 27(2), pages 351-367, March.
    7. Durbin, James & Koopman, Siem Jan, 2012. "Time Series Analysis by State Space Methods," OUP Catalogue, Oxford University Press, edition 2, number 9780199641178, April.
    8. Harvey, Andrew & Ruiz, Esther & Sentana, Enrique, 1992. "Unobserved component time series models with Arch disturbances," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 52(1-2), pages 129-157.
    9. Geweke, John F & Singleton, Kenneth J, 1981. "Maximum Likelihood "Confirmatory" Factor Analysis of Economic Time Series," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 22(1), pages 37-54, February.
    10. Mario Forni & Marc Hallin & Marco Lippi & Lucrezia Reichlin, 2000. "The Generalized Dynamic-Factor Model: Identification And Estimation," The Review of Economics and Statistics, MIT Press, vol. 82(4), pages 540-554, November.
    11. Bollerslev, Tim, 1986. "Generalized autoregressive conditional heteroskedasticity," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 307-327, April.
    12. Connor, Gregory & Korajczyk, Robert A. & Linton, Oliver, 2006. "The common and specific components of dynamic volatility," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 132(1), pages 231-255, May.
    13. Ortega, Jose Antonio & Poncela, Pilar, 2005. "Joint forecasts of Southern European fertility rates with non-stationary dynamic factor models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 21(3), pages 539-550.
    14. Alejandro Rodriguez & Esther Ruiz, 2009. "Bootstrap prediction intervals in state-space models," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 30(2), pages 167-178, 03.
    15. Helen Higgs, 2009. "Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets," Discussion Papers in Economics economics:200904, Griffith University, Department of Accounting, Finance and Economics.
    16. Harvey, Andrew C & Koopman, Siem Jan, 1992. "Diagnostic Checking of Unobserved-Components Time Series Models," Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, American Statistical Association, vol. 10(4), pages 377-389, October.
    17. Higgs, Helen & Worthington, Andrew, 2008. "Stochastic price modeling of high volatility, mean-reverting, spike-prone commodities: The Australian wholesale spot electricity market," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 30(6), pages 3172-3185, November.
    18. Higgs, Helen, 2009. "Modelling price and volatility inter-relationships in the Australian wholesale spot electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 748-756, September.
    19. Alvaro Escribano & J. Ignacio Peña & Pablo Villaplana, 2011. "Modelling Electricity Prices: International Evidence," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 73(5), pages 622-650, October.
    20. King, Mervyn & Sentana, Enrique & Wadhwani, Sushil, 1994. "Volatility and Links between National Stock Markets," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(4), pages 901-933, July.
    21. Stock J.H. & Watson M.W., 2002. "Forecasting Using Principal Components From a Large Number of Predictors," Journal of the American Statistical Association, American Statistical Association, vol. 97, pages 1167-1179, December.
    22. Trapero, Juan R. & Pedregal, Diego J., 2009. "Frequency domain methods applied to forecasting electricity markets," Energy Economics, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 727-735, September.
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