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International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure

Author

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  • Wai Hong Kan Tsui

    (Massey University, New Zealand; The Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong)

  • Faruk Balli

    (Massey University, New Zealand; University of Gediz, Turkey)

Abstract

An airport’s international passenger arrivals are susceptible to exogenous and endogenous factors (such as economic conditions, flight services, fluctuations and shocks). Accurate and reliable airport passenger demand forecasts are imperative for policymaking and planning by airport and airline management as well as by tourism authorities and operators. This article employs the Box–Jenkins SARIMA, SARIMAX and SARIMAX/EGARCH volatility models to forecast international passenger arrivals for the eight key Australian airports (Adelaide, Brisbane, Cairns, Darwin, Gold Coast, Melbourne, Perth and Sydney). Monthly international tourist arrivals between January 2006 and September 2012 are used for the empirical analysis. All the forecasting models are highly accurate with the lower values of mean absolute percentage error, mean absolute error and root mean squared error. The findings suggest that the international passenger arrivals of Australian airports are affected by positive and negative shocks and tourism marketing expenditure is also a significant factor influencing the majority of Australian airports’ international passenger arrivals.

Suggested Citation

  • Wai Hong Kan Tsui & Faruk Balli, 2017. "International arrivals forecasting for Australian airports and the impact of tourism marketing expenditure," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(2), pages 403-428, March.
    • Handle: RePEc:sae:toueco:v:23:y:2017:i:2:p:403-428
    DOI: 10.5367/te.2015.0507
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    3. Wai Hong Kan Tsui & David Tat Wei Tan & Song Shi, 2017. "Impacts of airport traffic volumes on house prices of New Zealand’s major regions: A panel data approach," Urban Studies, Urban Studies Journal Limited, vol. 54(12), pages 2800-2817, September.
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    6. Hong Tsui, Kan Wai, 2017. "Does a low-cost carrier lead the domestic tourism demand and growth of New Zealand?," Tourism Management, Elsevier, vol. 60(C), pages 390-403.
    7. Stavros A Kourtzidis & Panayiotis Tzeremes & Nickolaos G Tzeremes & Tomáš Heryán, 2018. "Integration of tourism markets in Australia," Tourism Economics, , vol. 24(7), pages 901-907, November.
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