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The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications

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Cited by:

  1. Jetter, Michael & Walker, Jay K., 2015. "Game, set, and match: Do women and men perform differently in competitive situations?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 96-108.
  2. Tortorice, Daniel L., 2018. "Equity return predictability, time varying volatility and learning about the permanence of shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 148(C), pages 315-343.
  3. Axel Stahmer, 2015. "Fund flows inducing mispricing of risk in competitive financial markets," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-15-04, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
  4. van Ours, Jan C & Van Tuijl, Martin, 2014. "In-season head-coach dismissals and the performance of professional football teams," CEPR Discussion Papers 10191, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  5. Mirko Kremer & Laurens Debo, 2016. "Inferring Quality from Wait Time," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 62(10), pages 3023-3038, October.
  6. Ran Spiegler, 2016. "Bayesian Networks and Boundedly Rational Expectations," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1243-1290.
  7. Bianchi, Milo & Jehiel, Philippe, 0. "Bundlers' dilemmas in financial markets with sampling investors," Theoretical Economics, Econometric Society.
  8. Daniel J. Benjamin, 2018. "Errors in Probabilistic Reasoning and Judgment Biases," NBER Working Papers 25200, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  9. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "Quicksand or Bedrock for Behavioral Economics? Assessing Foundational Empirical Questions," NBER Working Papers 23625, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  10. Daniel L. Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision Making Under the Gambler’s Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, Oxford University Press, vol. 131(3), pages 1181-1242.
  11. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2019. "A Bridge from Monty Hall to the Hot Hand: The Principle of Restricted Choice," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 33(3), pages 144-162, Summer.
  12. Jonathan Zinman & Victor Stango, 2019. "We Are All Behavioral, More or Less: Measuring and Using Consumer-Level Behavioral Sufficient Statistics," Working Papers 19-14, Federal Reserve Bank of Philadelphia, revised 22 Feb 2019.
  13. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2019. "Can households see into the future? Survey evidence from the Netherlands," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 164(C), pages 77-90.
  14. Nunnari, Salvatore & Zapal, Jan, 2016. "Gambler's fallacy and imperfect best response in legislative bargaining," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 275-294.
  15. Andrei Shleifer, 2012. "Psychologists at the Gate: A Review of Daniel Kahneman's Thinking, Fast and Slow," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 50(4), pages 1080-1091, December.
  16. Eduardo Pol & Steve Cook, 2015. "A theorem on the methodology of positive economics," Cogent Economics & Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 3(1), pages 1054142-105, December.
  17. Macera, Rosario, 2014. "Dynamic beliefs," Games and Economic Behavior, Elsevier, vol. 87(C), pages 1-18.
  18. Silvia Bou & Jordi Brandts & Magda Cayón & Pablo Guillén, 2016. "The price of luck: paying for the hot hand of others," Journal of the Economic Science Association, Springer;Economic Science Association, vol. 2(1), pages 60-72, May.
  19. Michael Bleaney & Spiros Bougheas & Zhiyong Li, 2014. "Do Psychological Fallacies Influence Trading in Financial Markets? Evidence from the Foreign Exchange Market," Discussion Papers 2014-17, The Centre for Decision Research and Experimental Economics, School of Economics, University of Nottingham.
  20. Jan C. van Ours & Martin A. van Tuijl, 2016. "In-Season Head-Coach Dismissals And The Performance Of Professional Football Teams," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(1), pages 591-604, January.
  21. Hirshleifer, David & Jian, Ming & Zhang, Huai, 2014. "Superstition and financial decision making," MPRA Paper 58620, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  22. Milo Bianchi & Philippe Jehiel, 2019. "Bundling, Belief Dispersion, and Mispricing in Financial Markets," PSE Working Papers halshs-02183306, HAL.
  23. He, Xue Dong & Xiao, Di, 2017. "Processing consistency in non-Bayesian inference," Journal of Mathematical Economics, Elsevier, vol. 70(C), pages 90-104.
  24. Daniel F. Stone & Jeremy Arkes, 2018. "March Madness? Underreaction To Hot And Cold Hands In Ncaa Basketball," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 56(3), pages 1724-1747, July.
  25. Ozkan Eren & Naci Mocan, 2016. "Emotional Judges and Unlucky Juveniles," NBER Working Papers 22611, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  26. Samuel M. Hartzmark & Kelly Shue, 2017. "A Tough Act to Follow: Contrast Effects In Financial Markets," NBER Working Papers 23883, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  27. Fernando Bonassi & Rafael Stern & Cláudia Peixoto & Sergio Wechsler, 2015. "Exchangeability and the law of maturity," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 78(4), pages 603-615, April.
  28. Daniel Chen & Tobias J. Moskowitz & Kelly Shue, 2016. "Decision-Making under the Gambler's Fallacy: Evidence from Asylum Judges, Loan Officers, and Baseball Umpires," NBER Working Papers 22026, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  29. Massenot, Baptiste & Pettinicchi, Yuri, 2018. "Can firms see into the future? Survey evidence from Germany," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 145(C), pages 66-79.
  30. Pinger, Pia & Schäfer, Sebastian & Schumacher, Heiner, 2018. "Locus of control and consistent investment choices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 66-75.
  31. Andrey Kudryavtsev & Gil Cohen & Shlomit Hon-Snir, 2013. "“Rational” or “Intuitive”: Are Behavioral Biases Correlated Across Stock Market Investors?," Contemporary Economics, University of Economics and Human Sciences in Warsaw., vol. 7(2), June.
  32. Luisa Herbst, 2016. "Who Pays to Win Again? The Joy of Winning in Contest Experiments," Working Papers tax-mpg-rps-2016-06, Max Planck Institute for Tax Law and Public Finance.
  33. Livingston, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The hot hand and the cold hand in professional golf," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 172-184.
  34. Neszveda, G., 2019. "Essays on behavioral finance," Other publications TiSEM 05059039-5236-42a3-be1b-3, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  35. Barron, Kai, 2016. "Belief updating: Does the 'good-news, bad-news' asymmetry extend to purely financial domains?," Discussion Papers, Research Unit: Economics of Change SP II 2016-309, WZB Berlin Social Science Center.
  36. Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2015. "Hedge fund flows and performance streaks: How investors weigh information," ESMT Research Working Papers ESMT-15-01, ESMT European School of Management and Technology.
  37. Pinger, Pia & Schäfer, Sebastian & Schumacher, Heiner, 2018. "Locus of control and consistent investment choices," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 75(C), pages 66-75.
  38. Erik Eyster & Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2019. "Financial Markets Where Traders Neglect the Informational Content of Prices," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 74(1), pages 371-399, February.
  39. Victor Stango & Joanne Yoong & Jonathan Zinman, 2017. "The Quest for Parsimony in Behavioral Economics: New Methods and Evidence on Three Fronts," NBER Working Papers 23057, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  40. Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July.
  41. Stöckl, Thomas & Huber, Jürgen & Kirchler, Michael & Lindner, Florian, 2015. "Hot hand and gambler's fallacy in teams: Evidence from investment experiments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 327-339.
  42. Shleifer, Andrei, 2012. "Psychologists at the Gate: Review of Daniel Kahneman’s Thinking, Fast and Slow," Scholarly Articles 10735580, Harvard University Department of Economics.
  43. Bianchi, Milo & Jehiel, Philippe, 2015. "Financial reporting and market efficiency with extrapolative investors," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 157(C), pages 842-878.
  44. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2014. "A Cold Shower for the Hot Hand Fallacy," Working Papers 518, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  45. Daniel J. Benjamin & Don A. Moore & Matthew Rabin, 2017. "Biased Beliefs About Random Samples: Evidence from Two Integrated Experiments," NBER Working Papers 23927, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  46. Stephanie Parsons & Nicholas Rohde, 2015. "The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 346-357, January.
  47. Joshua B. Miller & Adam Sanjurjo, 2015. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," Working Papers 548, IGIER (Innocenzo Gasparini Institute for Economic Research), Bocconi University.
  48. Yuan, Jia & Sun, Guang-Zhen & Siu, Ricardo, 2014. "The lure of illusory luck: How much are people willing to pay for random shocks," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 106(C), pages 269-280.
  49. Mirko Kremer & Brent Moritz & Enno Siemsen, 2011. "Demand Forecasting Behavior: System Neglect and Change Detection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 57(10), pages 1827-1843, October.
  50. Rosenqvist, Olof & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2015. "Confidence enhanced performance? – The causal effects of success on future performance in professional golf tournaments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 281-295.
  51. Miller, Joshua Benjamin & Sanjurjo, Adam, 2018. "Is it a Fallacy to Believe in the Hot Hand in the NBA Three-Point Contest?," OSF Preprints dmksp, Center for Open Science.
  52. Yanlong Sun & Hongbin Wang, 2010. "Gambler's fallacy, hot hand belief, and the time of patterns," Judgment and Decision Making, Society for Judgment and Decision Making, vol. 5(2), pages 124-132, April.
  53. Doidge, Mary & Feng, Hongli & Hennessy, David A., 2017. "A test of the gambler’s and hot hand fallacies in farmers’ weather and market predictions," 2017 Annual Meeting, July 30-August 1, Chicago, Illinois 258457, Agricultural and Applied Economics Association.
  54. Matthew Rabin, 2013. "Incorporating Limited Rationality into Economics," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 51(2), pages 528-543, June.
  55. Yosef Rinott & Maya Bar-Hillel, 2015. "Comments on a “Hot Hand” Paper by Miller and Sanjurjo (2015)," Discussion Paper Series dp688, The Federmann Center for the Study of Rationality, the Hebrew University, Jerusalem.
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