IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/a/inm/ormnsc/v68y2022i6p4151-4172.html
   My bibliography  Save this article

Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information

Author

Listed:
  • Guillermo Baquero

    (European School of Management and Technology, 10178 Berlin, Germany)

  • Marno Verbeek

    (Department of Finance, Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University, 3000 DR Rotterdam, Netherlands)

Abstract

Cash flows to hedge funds are highly sensitive to performance streaks, a streak being defined as subsequent quarters during which a fund performs above or below a benchmark, even after controlling for a wide range of common performance measures. At the same time, streaks have limited predictive power regarding future fund performance. This suggests investors weigh information suboptimally, and their decisions are driven too strongly by a belief in continuation of good performance, consistent with the “hot hand fallacy.” The hedge funds that investors choose to invest in do not perform significantly better than those they divest from. These findings are consistent with overreaction to certain types of information and do not support the notion that sophisticated investors have superior information or superior information processing abilities.

Suggested Citation

  • Guillermo Baquero & Marno Verbeek, 2022. "Hedge Fund Flows and Performance Streaks: How Investors Weigh Information," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(6), pages 4151-4172, June.
    • Handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:6:p:4151-4172
    DOI: 10.1287/mnsc.2021.4067
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4067
    Download Restriction: no
    File URL: https://libkey.io/10.1287/mnsc.2021.4067?utm_source=ideas
    LibKey link: if access is restricted and if your library uses this service, LibKey will redirect you to where you can use your library subscription to access this item
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Li, Haitao & Zhang, Xiaoyan & Zhao, Rui, 2011. "Investing in Talents: Manager Characteristics and Hedge Fund Performances," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 46(1), pages 59-82, February.
    2. Jongha Lim & Berk A. Sensoy & Michael S. Weisbach, 2016. "Indirect Incentives of Hedge Fund Managers," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 71(2), pages 871-918, April.
    3. Ippolito, Richard A, 1992. "Consumer Reaction to Measures of Poor Quality: Evidence from the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Law and Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 35(1), pages 45-70, April.
    4. Thompson, Samuel B., 2011. "Simple formulas for standard errors that cluster by both firm and time," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(1), pages 1-10, January.
    5. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann & Bing Liang & Christopher Schwarz, 2008. "Mandatory Disclosure and Operational Risk: Evidence from Hedge Fund Registration," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(6), pages 2785-2815, December.
    6. Georg Weizsacker, 2010. "Do We Follow Others When We Should? A Simple Test of Rational Expectations," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 100(5), pages 2340-2360, December.
    7. repec:bla:jfinan:v:53:y:1998:i:5:p:1589-1622 is not listed on IDEAS
    8. Ramadorai, Tarun, 2013. "Capacity constraints, investor information, and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(2), pages 401-416.
    9. William Fung & David A. Hsieh & Narayan Y. Naik & Tarun Ramadorai, 2008. "Hedge Funds: Performance, Risk, and Capital Formation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 63(4), pages 1777-1803, August.
    10. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(3), pages 963-999, June.
    11. Matthew Rabin, 2002. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816.
    12. Jonathan B. Berk & Richard C. Green, 2004. "Mutual Fund Flows and Performance in Rational Markets," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 112(6), pages 1269-1295, December.
    13. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 291-307, September.
    14. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    15. Ravi Jagannathan & Alexey Malakhov & Dmitry Novikov, 2010. "Do Hot Hands Exist among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 65(1), pages 217-255, February.
    16. Agarwal, Vikas & Daniel, Naveen D. & Naik, Narayan Y., 2009. "Role of managerial incentives and discretion in hedge fund performance," CFR Working Papers 04-04, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. Brown, Stephen & Goetzmann, William & Liang, Bing & Schwarz, Christopher, 2012. "Trust and delegation," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 103(2), pages 221-234.
    18. Barberis, Nicholas & Shleifer, Andrei & Vishny, Robert, 1998. "A model of investor sentiment," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 49(3), pages 307-343, September.
    19. Aragon, George O., 2007. "Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 33-58, January.
    20. Dichev, Ilia D. & Yu, Gwen, 2011. "Higher risk, lower returns: What hedge fund investors really earn," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 100(2), pages 248-263, May.
    21. Robin Greenwood & Andrei Shleifer, 2014. "Expectations of Returns and Expected Returns," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 27(3), pages 714-746.
    22. Nicolas P.B. Bollen & Veronika K. Pool, 2009. "Do Hedge Fund Managers Misreport Returns? Evidence from the Pooled Distribution," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2257-2288, October.
    23. Camerer, Colin F, 1989. "Does the Basketball Market Believe in the 'Hot Hand'?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 79(5), pages 1257-1261, December.
    24. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, June.
    25. Sheridan Titman & Cristian Tiu, 2011. "Do the Best Hedge Funds Hedge?," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 24(1), pages 123-168.
    26. Andrew J. Patton & Tarun Ramadorai & Michael Streatfield, 2015. "Change You Can Believe In? Hedge Fund Data Revisions: Erratum," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 70(4), pages 1862-1862, August.
    27. Matthew Rabin & Dimitri Vayanos, 2010. "The Gambler's and Hot-Hand Fallacies: Theory and Applications," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 77(2), pages 730-778.
    28. Elena Asparouhova & Michael Hertzel & Michael Lemmon, 2009. "Inference from Streaks in Random Outcomes: Experimental Evidence on Beliefs in Regime Shifting and the Law of Small Numbers," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 55(11), pages 1766-1782, November.
    29. De Bondt, Werner P. M., 1993. "Betting on trends: Intuitive forecasts of financial risk and return," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 9(3), pages 355-371, November.
    30. Bailey, Warren & Kumar, Alok & Ng, David, 2011. "Behavioral biases of mutual fund investors," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 102(1), pages 1-27, October.
    31. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 309-326, September.
    32. Pagan, Adrian, 1984. "Econometric Issues in the Analysis of Regressions with Generated Regressors," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 25(1), pages 221-247, February.
    33. William N. Goetzmann & Jonathan E. Ingersoll & Stephen A. Ross, 2003. "High‐Water Marks and Hedge Fund Management Contracts," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 58(4), pages 1685-1718, August.
    34. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(3), pages 493-517, September.
    35. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew W. & Makarov, Igor, 2004. "An econometric model of serial correlation and illiquidity in hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(3), pages 529-609, December.
    36. Brown, Stephen J & Goetzmann, William N & Ibbotson, Roger G, 1999. "Offshore Hedge Funds: Survival and Performance, 1989-95," The Journal of Business, University of Chicago Press, vol. 72(1), pages 91-117, January.
    37. Aiken, Adam L. & Clifford, Christopher P. & Ellis, Jesse A., 2015. "Hedge funds and discretionary liquidity restrictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 197-218.
    38. William N. Goetzmann & Nadav Peles, 1997. "Cognitive Dissonance And Mutual Fund Investors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 145-158, June.
    39. Vikas Agarwal & Naveen D. Daniel & Narayan Y. Naik, 2009. "Role of Managerial Incentives and Discretion in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 64(5), pages 2221-2256, October.
    40. Newey, Whitney K., 1984. "A method of moments interpretation of sequential estimators," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 14(2-3), pages 201-206.
    41. Wegener, Christian & von Nitzsch, Rüdiger & Cengiz, Cetin, 2010. "An advanced perspective on the predictability in hedge fund returns," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 34(11), pages 2694-2708, November.
    42. Mitchell A. Petersen, 2009. "Estimating Standard Errors in Finance Panel Data Sets: Comparing Approaches," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 22(1), pages 435-480, January.
    43. Francesco A. Franzoni & Martin C. Schmalz, 2013. "Fund Flows and Market States," Swiss Finance Institute Research Paper Series 13-41, Swiss Finance Institute, revised Jun 2017.
    44. Jenke Ter Horst & Marno Verbeek, 2007. "Fund Liquidation, Self-selection, and Look-ahead Bias in the Hedge Fund Industry," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 11(4), pages 605-632.
    45. Narayan Y. Naik & Tarun Ramadorai & Maria Stromqvist, 2007. "Capacity Constraints and Hedge Fund Strategy Returns," European Financial Management, European Financial Management Association, vol. 13(2), pages 239-256, March.
    46. Carpenter, Jennifer N. & Lynch, Anthony W., 1999. "Survivorship bias and attrition effects in measures of performance persistence," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 54(3), pages 337-374, December.
    47. Guercio, Diane Del & Tkac, Paula A., 2002. "The Determinants of the Flow of Funds of Managed Portfolios: Mutual Funds vs. Pension Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 37(4), pages 523-557, December.
    48. Stephen J. Brown & William N. Goetzmann & James Park, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
    49. Ozik, Gideon & Sadka, Ronnie, 2015. "Skin in the Game versus Skimming the Game: Governance, Share Restrictions, and Insider Flows," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 50(6), pages 1293-1319, December.
    50. Jennifer Huang & Kelsey D. Wei & Hong Yan, 2007. "Participation Costs and the Sensitivity of Fund Flows to Past Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 62(3), pages 1273-1311, June.
    51. Adam L. Aiken & Christopher P. Clifford & Jesse Ellis, 2013. "Out of the Dark: Hedge Fund Reporting Biases and Commercial Databases," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 26(1), pages 208-243.
    52. Avramov, Doron & Barras, Laurent & Kosowski, Robert, 2013. "Hedge Fund Return Predictability Under the Magnifying Glass," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(4), pages 1057-1083, August.
    53. repec:oup:rfinst:v:26:y::i:1:p:208-243 is not listed on IDEAS
    54. Francesco Franzoni & Martin C. Schmalz, 2017. "Fund Flows and Market States," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 30(8), pages 2621-2673.
    55. Aggarwal, Rajesh K. & Jorion, Philippe, 2010. "The performance of emerging hedge funds and managers," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 96(2), pages 238-256, May.
    56. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-341.
    57. William N. Goetzmann & Nadav Peles, 1997. "Cognitive Dissonance And Mutual Fund Investors," Journal of Financial Research, Southern Finance Association;Southwestern Finance Association, vol. 20(2), pages 145-158, June.
    58. Vikas Agarwal & Vyacheslav Fos & Wei Jiang, 2013. "Inferring Reporting-Related Biases in Hedge Fund Databases from Hedge Fund Equity Holdings," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 59(6), pages 1271-1289, June.
    59. Roger K. Loh & Mitch Warachka, 2012. "Streaks in Earnings Surprises and the Cross-Section of Stock Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 58(7), pages 1305-1321, July.
    60. Itzhak Ben-David & Francesco Franzoni & Rabih Moussawi, 2012. "Hedge Fund Stock Trading in the Financial Crisis of 2007--2009," The Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 25(1), pages 1-54.
    61. Gregory R. Durham & Michael G. Hertzel & J. Spencer Martin, 2005. "The Market Impact of Trends and Sequences in Performance: New Evidence," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 60(5), pages 2551-2569, October.
    62. Liang, Bing & Park, Hyuna, 2010. "Predicting Hedge Fund Failure: A Comparison of Risk Measures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(1), pages 199-222, February.
    63. George Aragon & Bing Liang & Hyuna Park, 2014. "Onshore and Offshore Hedge Funds: Are They Twins?," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 60(1), pages 74-91, January.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Aiken, Adam L. & Kang, Minjeong, 2023. "Hedge fund manager timing and selectivity skill over time. A holdings-based estimate," Finance Research Letters, Elsevier, vol. 58(PB).

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrew W. Lo & Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry in Transition," Annual Review of Financial Economics, Annual Reviews, vol. 7(1), pages 483-577, December.
    2. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, T. Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2018. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 127(3), pages 417-434.
    3. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Leverage and Alpha: The Case of Funds of Hedge Funds," Working Papers CEB 13-033, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, Tracy Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2017. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," CFR Working Papers 15-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR), revised 2017.
    5. Fan Yang & Tomas Havranek & Zuzana Irsova & Jiri Novak, 2022. "Hedge Fund Performance: A Quantitative Survey," Working Papers IES 2022/15, Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, Institute of Economic Studies, revised Jun 2022.
    6. Russell Jame, 2018. "Liquidity Provision and the Cross Section of Hedge Fund Returns," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 64(7), pages 3288-3312, July.
    7. Judy Qiu & Leilei Tang & Ingo Walter, 2018. "Hedge fund incentives, management commitment and survivorship," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 115-142, May.
    8. Benoît Dewaele, 2013. "Portfolio Optimization for Hedge Funds through Time-Varying Coefficients," Working Papers CEB 13-032, ULB -- Universite Libre de Bruxelles.
    9. Hwang, Inchang & Xu, Simon & In, Francis & Kim, Tong Suk, 2017. "Systemic risk and cross-sectional hedge fund returns," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 42(C), pages 109-130.
    10. George J. Jiang & Bing Liang & Huacheng Zhang, 2022. "Hedge Fund Manager Skill and Style-Shifting," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 68(3), pages 2284-2307, March.
    11. Kosowski, Robert & Joenväärä, Juha & Kaupila, Mikko & Tolonen, Pekka, 2019. "Hedge Fund Performance: Are Stylized Facts Sensitive to Which Database One Uses?," CEPR Discussion Papers 13618, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    12. Hao Liang & Lin Sun & Melvyn Teo, 2022. "Responsible Hedge Funds [Role of managerial incentives and discretion in hedge fund performance]," Review of Finance, European Finance Association, vol. 26(6), pages 1585-1633.
    13. Dai, Na & Nahata, Rajarishi & Brauner, Aaron, 2022. "Does individualism matter for hedge funds? A cross-country examination," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
    14. Arpit Gupta & Kunal Sachdeva, 2019. "Skin or Skim? Inside Investment and Hedge Fund Performance," NBER Working Papers 26113, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    15. Sun, Lin & Teo, Melvyn, 2019. "Public hedge funds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 131(1), pages 44-60.
    16. Viet Do & Robert Faff & Paul Lajbcygier & Madhu Veeraraghavan & Mikhail Tupitsyn, 2016. "Factors affecting the birth and fund flows of CTAs," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 41(2), pages 324-352, May.
    17. Mathias S. Kruttli & Phillip J. Monin & Sumudu W. Watugala, 2017. "Investor Concentration, Flows, and Cash Holdings : Evidence from Hedge Funds," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2017-121, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    18. Ling, Yun & Satchell, Stephen & Yao, Juan, 2023. "Decreasing returns to scale and skill in hedge funds," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 156(C).
    19. Wenbo Wu & Jiaqi Chen & Zhibin (Ben) Yang & Michael L. Tindall, 2021. "A Cross-Sectional Machine Learning Approach for Hedge Fund Return Prediction and Selection," Management Science, INFORMS, vol. 67(7), pages 4577-4601, July.
    20. Joenväärä, Juha & Kosowski, Robert & Tolonen, Pekka, 2019. "The Effect of Investment Constraints on Hedge Fund Investor Returns," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 54(4), pages 1539-1571, August.

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inm:ormnsc:v:68:y:2022:i:6:p:4151-4172. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Chris Asher (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/inforea.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.