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Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation

  • Ravi Jagannathan
  • Alexey Malakhov
  • Dmitry Novikov

We examine whether hot hands exist among hedge fund managers. In measuring performance persistence, we use hedge fund style benchmarks. This allows us to identify managers with valuable skills, and also to control for option-like features inherent in returns from hedge fund strategies. We take into account the possibility that reported asset values may be based on stale prices. We develop a statistical model that relates a hedge fund's performance to its decision to liquidate or close in order to infer the performance of a hedge fund that left the database. While we find significant performance persistence among superior funds we find little evidence of persistence among inferior funds.

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File URL: http://www.nber.org/papers/w12015.pdf
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Paper provided by National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc in its series NBER Working Papers with number 12015.

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Date of creation: Feb 2006
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Publication status: published as “Do Hot Hands Exist Among Hedge Fund Managers? An Empirical Evaluation.” forthcoming in Journal of Finance 2009
Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:12015
Note: AP
Contact details of provider: Postal: National Bureau of Economic Research, 1050 Massachusetts Avenue Cambridge, MA 02138, U.S.A.
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Web page: http://www.nber.org
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  1. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Investing in Equity Mutual Funds," CRSP working papers 532, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  2. Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
  3. Getmansky, Mila & Lo, Andrew & Makarov, Igor, 2003. "An Econometric Model of Serial Correlation and Illiquidity In Hedge Fund Returns," Working papers 4288-03, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Sloan School of Management.
  4. Liang, Bing, 2000. "Hedge Funds: The Living and the Dead," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 309-326, September.
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  6. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 327-342, September.
  7. Arik Ben Dor & Ravi Jagannathan, 2002. "Understanding Mutual Fund and Hedge Fund Styles Using Return Based Style Analysis," NBER Working Papers 9111, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  8. Stephen J. Brown, 2001. "Careers and Survival: Competition and Risk in the Hedge Fund and CTA Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 56(5), pages 1869-1886, October.
  9. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 2001. "The Risk in Hedge Fund Strategies: Theory and Evidence from Trend Followers," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 14(2), pages 313-41.
  10. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A., 2000. "Performance Characteristics of Hedge Funds and Commodity Funds: Natural vs. Spurious Biases," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(03), pages 291-307, September.
  11. Daniel Capocci, 2002. "An Analysis of Hedge Fund Performance," Finance 0210001, EconWPA.
  12. Capocci, Daniel & Hubner, Georges, 2004. "Analysis of hedge fund performance," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 11(1), pages 55-89, January.
  13. Luboš Pástor & Robert F. Stambaugh, . "Mutual Fund Performance and Seemingly Unrelated Assets.”," CRSP working papers 527, Center for Research in Security Prices, Graduate School of Business, University of Chicago.
  14. Baquero, Guillermo & ter Horst, Jenke & Verbeek, Marno, 2005. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias, and Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 40(03), pages 493-517, September.
  15. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2005. "Hedge Funds," Foundations and Trends(R) in Finance, now publishers, vol. 1(2), pages 103-169, November.
  16. Fama, Eugene F. & French, Kenneth R., 1993. "Common risk factors in the returns on stocks and bonds," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 33(1), pages 3-56, February.
  17. Fung, William & Hsieh, David A, 1997. "Empirical Characteristics of Dynamic Trading Strategies: The Case of Hedge Funds," Review of Financial Studies, Society for Financial Studies, vol. 10(2), pages 275-302.
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