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Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?

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  • Bali, Turan G.
  • Brown, Stephen J.
  • Caglayan, Mustafa Onur

Abstract

This paper investigates hedge funds' exposures to various financial and macroeconomic risk factors through alternative measures of factor betas and examines their performance in predicting the cross-sectional variation in hedge fund returns. Both parametric and non-parametric tests indicate a significantly positive (negative) link between default premium beta (inflation beta) and future hedge fund returns. The results are robust across different subsample periods and states of the economy, and after controlling for market, size, book-to-market, and momentum factors as well as the trend-following factors in stocks, short-term interest rates, currencies, bonds, and commodities. The paper also provides macro-level and micro-level explanations of our findings.

Suggested Citation

  • Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2011. "Do hedge funds' exposures to risk factors predict their future returns?," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 101(1), pages 36-68, July.
  • Handle: RePEc:eee:jfinec:v:101:y:2011:i:1:p:36-68
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Panopoulou, Ekaterini & Vrontos, Spyridon, 2015. "Hedge fund return predictability; To combine forecasts or combine information?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 56(C), pages 103-122.
    2. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa Onur, 2012. "Systematic risk and the cross section of hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 106(1), pages 114-131.
    3. repec:wsi:qjfxxx:v:07:y:2017:i:02:n:s2010139217500021 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Agarwal, Vikas & Green, Tracy Clifton & Ren, Honglin, 2017. "Alpha or beta in the eye of the beholder: What drives hedge fund flows?," CFR Working Papers 15-08, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    5. Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee & Andrew W. Lo, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry In Transition," NBER Working Papers 21449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    6. repec:eee:jfinec:v:127:y:2018:i:3:p:417-434 is not listed on IDEAS
    7. Jung-Min KIM, 2015. "Failure Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns," Working Papers 2015-13, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    8. Cakici, Nusret & Tang, Yi & Yan, An, 2016. "Do the size, value, and momentum factors drive stock returns in emerging markets?," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 69(C), pages 179-204.
    9. Huang, Ying Sophie & Chen, Carl R. & Kato, Isamu, 2017. "Different strokes by different folks: The dynamics of hedge fund systematic risk exposure and performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-388.
    10. repec:eee:glofin:v:33:y:2017:i:c:p:69-87 is not listed on IDEAS
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    13. Olmo, José & Sanso-Navarro, Marcos, 2012. "Forecasting the performance of hedge fund styles," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(8), pages 2351-2365.
    14. Su, Xuan-Qi, 2016. "Does systematic distress risk drive the investment growth anomaly?," The Quarterly Review of Economics and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 61(C), pages 240-248.
    15. Bali, Turan G. & Brown, Stephen J. & Caglayan, Mustafa O., 2014. "Macroeconomic risk and hedge fund returns," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 114(1), pages 1-19.
    16. Namvar, Ethan & Phillips, Blake & Pukthuanthong, Kuntara & Raghavendra Rau, P., 2016. "Do hedge funds dynamically manage systematic risk?," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 64(C), pages 1-15.
    17. Nucera, Federico & Valente, Giorgio, 2013. "Carry trades and the performance of currency hedge funds," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C), pages 407-425.
    18. Gökçen, Umut & Yalçın, Atakan, 2015. "The case against active pension funds: Evidence from the Turkish Private Pension System," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 23(C), pages 46-67.
    19. repec:eee:empfin:v:42:y:2017:i:c:p:109-130 is not listed on IDEAS
    20. Papageorgiou, Nicolas & Reeves, Jonathan J. & Xie, Xuan, 2016. "Betas and the myth of market neutrality," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(2), pages 548-558.
    21. repec:eee:joecas:v:11:y:2014:i:c:p:58-77 is not listed on IDEAS
    22. Huang, Shiyang & Qiu, Zhigang & Shang, Qi & Tang, Ke, 2013. "Asset pricing with heterogeneous beliefs and relative performance," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4107-4119.
    23. Horst, Jenke ter & Salganik, Galla, 2014. "Style chasing by hedge fund investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 29-42.

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