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Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance

Author

Listed:
  • Baquero, G.
  • ter Horst, J.R.
  • Verbeek, M.J.C.M.

Abstract

Hedge funds databases are typically subject to high attrition rates because of fund termination and self-selection. Even when all funds are included up to their last available return, one cannot prevent that ex post conditioning biases a.ect standard estimates of performance persistence. In this paper we analyze the persistence in the performance of U.S. hedge funds taking into account look-ahead bias (multi-period sampling bias). To do so, we model attrition of hedge funds and analyze how it depends upon historical performance. Next, we use a weighting procedure that eliminates look-ahead bias in measures for performance persistence. The results show that the impact of look-ahead bias is quite severe, even though positive and negative survival-related biases are sometimes suggested to cancel out. At horizons of one and four quarters, we find clear evidence of positive persistence in hedge fund returns, also after correcting for investment style. At the two-year horizon, past winning funds tend to perform poorly in the future.

Suggested Citation

  • Baquero, G. & ter Horst, J.R. & Verbeek, M.J.C.M., 2002. "Survival, Look-Ahead Bias and the Persistence in Hedge Fund Performance," ERIM Report Series Research in Management ERS-2002-104-F&A, Erasmus Research Institute of Management (ERIM), ERIM is the joint research institute of the Rotterdam School of Management, Erasmus University and the Erasmus School of Economics (ESE) at Erasmus University Rotterdam.
    • Handle: RePEc:ems:eureri:255
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Stephen Brown & William Goetzmann, 2001. "Hedge Funds With Style," Yale School of Management Working Papers ysm21, Yale School of Management, revised 01 Apr 2008.
    2. Carl Ackermann & Richard McEnally & David Ravenscraft, 1999. "The Performance of Hedge Funds: Risk, Return, and Incentives," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 54(3), pages 833-874, June.
    3. Agarwal, Vikas & Naik, Narayan Y., 2000. "Multi-Period Performance Persistence Analysis of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 35(3), pages 327-342, September.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    hedge funds; individual profiles; investments; performance measurement; survival;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • G13 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - Contingent Pricing; Futures Pricing
    • G3 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance
    • G31 - Financial Economics - - Corporate Finance and Governance - - - Capital Budgeting; Fixed Investment and Inventory Studies
    • M - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics
    • M41 - Business Administration and Business Economics; Marketing; Accounting; Personnel Economics - - Accounting - - - Accounting

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