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Predicting Hedge Fund Failure: A Comparison of Risk Measures

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  • Liang, Bing
  • Park, Hyuna

Abstract

This paper compares downside risk measures that incorporate higher return moments with traditional risk measures such as standard deviation in predicting hedge fund failure. When controlling for investment strategies, performance, fund age, size, lockup, high-water mark, and leverage, we find that funds with larger downside risk have a higher hazard rate. However, standard deviation loses the explanatory power once the other explanatory variables are included in the hazard model. Further, we find that liquidation does not necessarily mean failure in the hedge fund industry. By reexamining the attrition rate, we show that the real failure rate of 3.1% is lower than the attrition rate of 8.7% on an annual basis during the period of 1995–2004.

Suggested Citation

  • Liang, Bing & Park, Hyuna, 2010. "Predicting Hedge Fund Failure: A Comparison of Risk Measures," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 45(01), pages 199-222, February.
  • Handle: RePEc:cup:jfinqa:v:45:y:2010:i:01:p:199-222_99
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    Cited by:

    1. Haghani, Shermineh, 2014. "Modeling hedge fund lifetimes: A dependent competing risks framework with latent exit types," Journal of Empirical Finance, Elsevier, vol. 28(C), pages 291-320.
    2. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "Bank regulation and stability: An examination of the Basel market risk framework," Discussion Papers 09/2012, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    3. Lee, Hee Soo & Kim, Tae Yoon, 2014. "Dynamic prediction of hedge fund survival in crisis-prone financial markets," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 57-67.
    4. Alexander, Gordon J. & Baptista, Alexandre M. & Yan, Shu, 2012. "When more is less: Using multiple constraints to reduce tail risk," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 36(10), pages 2693-2716.
    5. Jung-Min KIM, 2015. "Failure Risk and the Cross-Section of Hedge Fund Returns," Working Papers 2015-13, Economic Research Institute, Bank of Korea.
    6. Huang, Ying Sophie & Chen, Carl R. & Kato, Isamu, 2017. "Different strokes by different folks: The dynamics of hedge fund systematic risk exposure and performance," International Review of Economics & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 48(C), pages 367-388.
    7. Cogneau, Philippe & Hübner, Georges, 2015. "The prediction of fund failure through performance diagnostics," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 50(C), pages 224-241.
    8. Aiken, Adam L. & Clifford, Christopher P. & Ellis, Jesse A., 2015. "Hedge funds and discretionary liquidity restrictions," Journal of Financial Economics, Elsevier, vol. 116(1), pages 197-218.
    9. Szabolcs Blazsek & Anna Downarowicz, 2013. "Forecasting hedge fund volatility: a Markov regime-switching approach," The European Journal of Finance, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 19(4), pages 243-275, April.
    10. Hodder, James E. & Jackwerth, Jens Carsten & Kolokolova, Olga, 2014. "Recovering Delisting Returns of Hedge Funds," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 49(03), pages 797-815, June.
    11. Alexander Danilenko & Caroline van den Berg & Berta Macheve & L. Joe Moffitt, 2014. "The IBNET Water Supply and Sanitation Blue Book 2014 : The International Benchmarking Network for Water and Sanitation Utilities Databook," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 19811.
    12. Park, Hyuna, 2015. "Emerging market hedge funds in the United States," Emerging Markets Review, Elsevier, vol. 22(C), pages 25-42.
    13. Bussière, Matthieu & Hoerova, Marie & Klaus, Benjamin, 2015. "Commonality in hedge fund returns: Driving factors and implications," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 54(C), pages 266-280.
    14. Bollen, Nicolas P. B., 2013. "Zero-R 2Hedge Funds and Market Neutrality," Journal of Financial and Quantitative Analysis, Cambridge University Press, vol. 48(02), pages 519-547, April.
    15. Mila Getmansky & Peter A. Lee & Andrew W. Lo, 2015. "Hedge Funds: A Dynamic Industry In Transition," NBER Working Papers 21449, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    16. Agarwal, Vikas & Ruenzi, Stefan & Weigert, Florian, 2015. "Tail risk in hedge funds: A unique view from portfolio holdings," CFR Working Papers 15-07, University of Cologne, Centre for Financial Research (CFR).
    17. repec:eee:jfinec:v:125:y:2017:i:3:p:610-636 is not listed on IDEAS
    18. repec:pal:assmgt:v:18:y:2017:i:1:d:10.1057_s41260-016-0002-y is not listed on IDEAS

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