Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments
In laboratory experiments we explore the effects of communication and group decision making on investment behavior and on subjects’ proneness to behavioral biases. Most importantly, we show that communication and group decision making does not impact subjects’ overall proneness to biases like gambler’s fallacy and hot hand belief. However, groups decide differently than individuals as they rely significantly less on useless outside advice from “experts” and choose the risk-free option less frequently. Finally, we document gender differences in investment behavior: groups of two female subjects choose the risk-free investment more often and are slightly more prone to the hot hand belief than groups of two male subjects.
|Date of creation:||Jan 2013|
|Date of revision:|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: |
Web page: http://www.uibk.ac.at/fakultaeten/volkswirtschaft_und_statistik/index.html.en
More information through EDIRC
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009.
"Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 72(3), pages 903-915, December.
- Dohmen, Thomas J. & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased probability judgment: Evidence of incidence and relationship to economic outcomes from a representative sample," Munich Reprints in Economics 20042, University of Munich, Department of Economics.
- Dohmen, Thomas & Falk, Armin & Huffman, David B. & Marklein, Felix & Sunde, Uwe, 2009. "Biased Probability Judgment: Evidence of Incidence and Relationship to Economic Outcomes from a Representative Sample," IZA Discussion Papers 4170, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Matthew Rabin, 2001.
"Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers,"
Method and Hist of Econ Thought
- Matthew Rabin, 2002. "Inference By Believers In The Law Of Small Numbers," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, MIT Press, vol. 117(3), pages 775-816, August.
- Matthew Rabin., 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Economics Working Papers E00-282, University of California at Berkeley.
- Rabin, Matthew, 2000. "Inference by Believers in the Law of Small Numbers," Department of Economics, Working Paper Series qt4sw8n41t, Department of Economics, Institute for Business and Economic Research, UC Berkeley.
- Bone, John & Hey, John & Suckling, John, 1999. "Are Groups More (or Less) Consistent Than Individuals?," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 18(1), pages 63-81, April.
- Suetens, Sigrid & Tyran, Jean-Robert, 2012.
"The gambler's fallacy and gender,"
Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization,
Elsevier, vol. 83(1), pages 118-124.
- Urs Fischbacher, 2007. "z-Tree: Zurich toolbox for ready-made economic experiments," Experimental Economics, Springer, vol. 10(2), pages 171-178, June.
- Carhart, Mark M, 1997. " On Persistence in Mutual Fund Performance," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 52(1), pages 57-82, March.
- Cheung, Stephen L. & Coleman, Andrew, 2011.
"League-Table Incentives and Price Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets,"
IZA Discussion Papers
5704, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Cheung, Stephen L. & Coleman, Andrew, 2012. "League-Table Incentives and Price Bubbles in Experimental Asset Markets," Working Papers 2012-13, University of Sydney, School of Economics.
- Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Thomas Stöckl, 2010. "The hot hand belief and the gambler’s fallacy in investment decisions under risk," Theory and Decision, Springer, vol. 68(4), pages 445-462, April.
- Blinder, Alan S & Morgan, John, 2005. "Are Two Heads Better than One? Monetary Policy by Committee," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 37(5), pages 789-811, October.
- Fahr, René & Irlenbusch, Bernd, 2011. "Who follows the crowd—Groups or individuals?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 80(1), pages 200-209.
- Roman M. Sheremeta & Jingjing Zhang, 2009.
"Can Groups Solve the Problem of Overbidding in Contests?,"
Department of Economics Working Papers
2009-05, McMaster University.
- Roman Sheremeta & Jingjing Zhang, 2010. "Can groups solve the problem of over-bidding in contests?," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 175-197, July.
- Sheremeta, Roman & Zhang, Jingjing, 2009. "Can Groups Solve the Problem of Over-Bidding in Contests?," MPRA Paper 49885, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Roman M. Sheremeta & Jingjing Zhang, 2009. "Can Groups Solve the Problem of Over-Bidding in Contests," Working Papers 09-09, Chapman University, Economic Science Institute.
- Chevalier, Judith & Ellison, Glenn, 1997.
"Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives,"
Journal of Political Economy,
University of Chicago Press, vol. 105(6), pages 1167-1200, December.
- Chevalier, J. & Ellison, G., 1996. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," Working papers 96-3, Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT), Department of Economics.
- Judith A. Chevalier & Glenn D. Ellison, 1995. "Risk Taking by Mutual Funds as a Response to Incentives," NBER Working Papers 5234, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Brown, Keith C & Harlow, W V & Starks, Laura T, 1996. " Of Tournaments and Temptations: An Analysis of Managerial Incentives in the Mutual Fund Industry," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 51(1), pages 85-110, March.
- Shapira, Zur & Venezia, Itzhak, 2001. "Patterns of behavior of professionally managed and independent investors," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 25(8), pages 1573-1587, August.
- Sutter, Matthias, 2007. "Are teams prone to myopic loss aversion? An experimental study on individual versus team investment behavior," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 97(2), pages 128-132, November.
- Marco Casari & Jingjing Zhang & Christine Jackson, 2010.
"When do groups perform better than individuals? A company takeover experiment,"
IEW - Working Papers
504, Institute for Empirical Research in Economics - University of Zurich, revised Apr 2012.
- M. Casari & J. Zhang & C. Jackson, 2011. "When Do Groups Perform Better than Individuals? A Company Takeover Experiment," Working Papers wp763, Dipartimento Scienze Economiche, Universita' di Bologna.
- Charness, Gary B & Karni, Edi, 2007.
"Individual and Group Decision Making Under Risk: An Experimental Study of Bayesian Updating and Violations of First-order Stochastic Dominance,"
University of California at Santa Barbara, Economics Working Paper Series
qt4gr7j8z8, Department of Economics, UC Santa Barbara.
- Gary Charness & Edi Karni & Dan Levin, 2007. "Individual and group decision making under risk: An experimental study of Bayesian updating and violations of first-order stochastic dominance," Journal of Risk and Uncertainty, Springer, vol. 35(2), pages 129-148, October.
- Terrance Odean, 1998. "Are Investors Reluctant to Realize Their Losses?," Journal of Finance, American Finance Association, vol. 53(5), pages 1775-1798, October.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-04. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Janette Walde)
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.