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Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments

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  • Thomas Stöckl
  • Jürgen Huber
  • Michael Kirchler
  • Florian Lindner

Abstract

In laboratory experiments we explore the effects of communication and group decision making on investment behavior and on subjects' proneness to behavioral biases. Most importantly, we show that communication and group decision making does not impact subjects' overall proneness to biases like gambler's fallacy and hot hand belief. However, groups decide differently than individuals as they rely significantly less on useless outside advice from 'experts' and choose the risk-free option less frequently. Finally, we document gender differences in investment behavior: groups of two female subjects choose the risk-free investment more often and are slightly more prone to the hot hand belief than groups of two male subjects.

Suggested Citation

  • Thomas Stöckl & Jürgen Huber & Michael Kirchler & Florian Lindner, 2013. "Hot Hand and Gambler's Fallacy in Teams: Evidence from Investment Experiments," Working Papers 2013-04, Faculty of Economics and Statistics, Universität Innsbruck.
    • Handle: RePEc:inn:wpaper:2013-04
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    2. Jimnee Deka & Meghna Sharma & Nishant Agarwal & Kamesh Tiwari, 2023. "Linking ESG-Investing Consciousness, Behavioral Biases, and Risk-Perception: Scale Validation with Specifics of Indian Retail Investors," European Journal of Business Science and Technology, Mendel University in Brno, Faculty of Business and Economics, vol. 9(1), pages 70-91.
    3. Sarantis Tsiaplias & Qi Zeng & Guay Lim, 2021. "Retail investor expectations and trading preferences," Melbourne Institute Working Paper Series wp2021n27, Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, The University of Melbourne.
    4. Pelster, Matthias, 2020. "The gambler’s and hot-hand fallacies: Empirical evidence from trading data," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 187(C).
    5. Ibrahim Filiz & Thomas Nahmer & Markus Spiwoks & Kilian Bizer, 2018. "Portfolio diversification: the influence of herding, status-quo bias, and the gambler’s fallacy," Financial Markets and Portfolio Management, Springer;Swiss Society for Financial Market Research, vol. 32(2), pages 167-205, May.
    6. Anufriev, Mikhail & Bao, Te & Sutan, Angela & Tuinstra, Jan, 2019. "Fee structure and mutual fund choice: An experiment," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 158(C), pages 449-474.
    7. Chiah, Mardy & Tian, Xiao & Zhong, Angel, 2022. "Lockdown and retail trading in the equity market," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Finance, Elsevier, vol. 33(C).
    8. Salhi Roumeissa, 2020. "Impact of Delay on Cost Overrun in Construction Projects in Algeria," European Journal of Interdisciplinary Studies Articles, Revistia Research and Publishing, vol. 6, January -.
    9. Maximilian Späth & Daniel Goller, 2023. "Gender differences in investment reactions to irrelevant information," CEPA Discussion Papers 67, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Hot hand belief; Gambler's fallacy; Experimental finance; Experts; Team decision making;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C91 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Individual Behavior
    • C92 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Design of Experiments - - - Laboratory, Group Behavior
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • G10 - Financial Economics - - General Financial Markets - - - General (includes Measurement and Data)

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