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The hot hand and the cold hand in professional golf

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  • Livingston, Jeffrey A.

Abstract

Previous studies have shown that people believe in the existence of the “hot hand” effect: recent good performances make one more confident and lead to more good performances. However, economists have found little evidence that such an effect is present. Motivated by models of momentum from psychology, this study examines hole-by-hole performances of four types of professional golfers, which is perhaps the ideal environment to evaluate whether such an effect exists. The results show that evidence consistent with the existence of hot hand and cold hand can be masked by looking only at overall mean impacts because the existence and magnitude of the effects can vary with the player's experience.

Suggested Citation

  • Livingston, Jeffrey A., 2012. "The hot hand and the cold hand in professional golf," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 81(1), pages 172-184.
    • Handle: RePEc:eee:jeborg:v:81:y:2012:i:1:p:172-184
    DOI: 10.1016/j.jebo.2011.10.001
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Evans, Andrew E. & Crosby, Paul, 2021. "Does a cool head beat a hot hand? Evidence from professional golf," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 97(C), pages 272-284.
    2. Jetter, Michael & Walker, Jay K., 2015. "Game, set, and match: Do women and men perform differently in competitive situations?," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 96-108.
    3. Cotton, Christopher & McIntyre, Frank & Price, Joseph, 2016. "Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: Analyzing performance streaks in youth golf," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274692, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    4. Robert Wrathall & Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru, 2020. "Do (Australian) jockeys have hot hands?," Australian Journal of Management, Australian School of Business, vol. 45(2), pages 223-239, May.
    5. Konstantinos Pelechrinis & Wayne Winston, 2022. "The hot hand in the wild," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 17(1), pages 1-12, January.
    6. Stephanie Parsons & Nicholas Rohde, 2015. "The hot hand fallacy re-examined: new evidence from the English Premier League," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 47(4), pages 346-357, January.
    7. Kniffin, Kevin M. & Mihalek, Vince, 2014. "Within-series momentum in hockey: No returns for running up the score," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 122(3), pages 400-402.
    8. Maria De Paola & Vincenzo Scoppa, 2015. "Gender Differences In Reaction To Psychological Pressure: Evidence From Tennis Players," Working Papers 201506, Università della Calabria, Dipartimento di Economia, Statistica e Finanza "Giovanni Anania" - DESF.
    9. Philippe Meier & Maximilian Rüdisser & Raphael Flepp & Egon Franck, 2019. "Investigating the conditions for psychological momentum in the field: Evidence from men’s professional tennis," Working Papers 383, University of Zurich, Department of Business Administration (IBW).
    10. Evans, Andrew E. & Crosby, Paul & Shin, Sunny Y., 2023. "Psychological momentum among non-experts: Evidence from club golfers," Journal of Behavioral and Experimental Economics (formerly The Journal of Socio-Economics), Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
    11. Finn Spilker, 2025. "Higher, Faster, Further: Performance Heterogeneity and Social Facilitation in Professional Track and Field," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(3), pages 268-289, April.
    12. Spilker Finn & Ötting Marius, 2024. "No cheering in the background? Individual performance in professional darts during COVID-19," Journal of Quantitative Analysis in Sports, De Gruyter, vol. 20(3), pages 219-234.
    13. Robin Maximilian Stetzka & Stefan Winter, 2023. "How rational is gambling?," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(4), pages 1432-1488, September.
    14. Rosenqvist, Olof & Skans, Oskar Nordström, 2015. "Confidence enhanced performance? – The causal effects of success on future performance in professional golf tournaments," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 117(C), pages 281-295.
    15. David R. Agrawal & Kenneth Tester, 2024. "State Taxation of Nonresident Income and the Location of Work," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 16(1), pages 447-481, February.
    16. Alexander Ahammer & Mario Lackner & Jasmin Voigt, 2017. "Does Confidence Enhance Performance? Causal Evidence from Professional Biathlon," CDL Aging, Health, Labor working papers 2017-18, The Christian Doppler (CD) Laboratory Aging, Health, and the Labor Market, Johannes Kepler University Linz, Austria.
    17. Cotton, Christopher S. & McIntyre, Frank & Nordstrom, Ardyn & Price, Joseph, 2019. "Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: An application to youth golf," Journal of Economic Psychology, Elsevier, vol. 75(PB).
    18. Rod Falvey & Gulasekaran Rajaguru & Robert Wrathall, 2025. "Do Jockeys “Look to†or “Rest on†Their Laurels After a Sequence of Winning Rides?," Journal of Sports Economics, , vol. 26(1), pages 78-114, January.
    19. Maximilian Späth & Daniel Goller, 2023. "Gender differences in investment reactions to irrelevant information," CEPA Discussion Papers 67, Center for Economic Policy Analysis.

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    Keywords

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    JEL classification:

    • D01 - Microeconomics - - General - - - Microeconomic Behavior: Underlying Principles
    • D81 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Criteria for Decision-Making under Risk and Uncertainty
    • D83 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Search; Learning; Information and Knowledge; Communication; Belief; Unawareness
    • D84 - Microeconomics - - Information, Knowledge, and Uncertainty - - - Expectations; Speculations

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