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Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: Analyzing performance streaks in youth golf

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  • Cotton, Christopher
  • McIntyre, Frank
  • Price, Joseph

Abstract

This paper illustrates the problems that arise with traditional tests for the hot hand and proposes instead using a consistent dynamic panel data estimator, which corrects for these problems and is easy to implement. Applying this estimator to a large dataset of amateur, youth golfers, we find no evidence of either hot or cold hand effects. When we restrict attention to the most-amateur of the golfers in our data, we do see weak evidence of a small hot hand. Thus casual athletes may experience small hot hands, but the effect does not persist among more serious athletes. This may give insight into why the belief in the hot hand in professional sports exists, even when the evidence suggests otherwise.

Suggested Citation

  • Cotton, Christopher & McIntyre, Frank & Price, Joseph, 2016. "Correcting for bias in hot hand analysis: Analyzing performance streaks in youth golf," Queen's Economics Department Working Papers 274692, Queen's University - Department of Economics.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:quedwp:274692
    DOI: 10.22004/ag.econ.274692
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    JEL classification:

    • C1 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods and Methodology: General
    • H3 - Public Economics - - Fiscal Policies and Behavior of Economic Agents

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