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Does Central Bank Communication really Lead to better Forecasts of Policy Decisions? New Evidence Based on a Taylor Rule Model for the ECB

Citations

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Cited by:

  1. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Siklos, Pierre L., 2013. "What's in a second opinion? Shadowing the ECB and the Bank of England," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 135-148.
  2. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
  3. Mario Gonzalez and Raul Cruz Tadle & Raul Cruz Tadle, 2022. "Monetary policy press releases: an international comparison," BIS Working Papers 1023, Bank for International Settlements.
  4. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2019. "Central bank tone and the dispersion of views within monetary policy committees," Sciences Po publications 2019 – 08, Sciences Po.
  5. Marc Anderes & Alexander Rathke & Sina Streicher & Jan-Egbert Sturm, 2021. "The role of ECB communication in guiding markets," Public Choice, Springer, vol. 186(3), pages 351-383, March.
  6. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2016. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on Policy Expectations," Working Papers hal-01394821, HAL.
  7. Paul Hubert, 2014. "Disentangling qualitative and quantitative central bank influence," Sciences Po publications 2014-23, Sciences Po.
  8. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2021. "Global and Local Components of Output Gaps," KOF Working papers 21-497, KOF Swiss Economic Institute, ETH Zurich.
  9. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Superstar Central Bankers," VfS Annual Conference 2014 (Hamburg): Evidence-based Economic Policy 100489, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
  10. Picault, Matthieu & Renault, Thomas, 2017. "Words are not all created equal: A new measure of ECB communication," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C), pages 136-156.
  11. Matthias Neuenkirch & Peter Tillmann, 2016. "Does A Good Central Banker Make A Difference?," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 54(3), pages 1541-1560, July.
  12. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20., Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research, revised Feb 2016.
  13. Stanislav Hába, 2016. "Verbální intervence ČNB: reaguje devizový kurz na slova bankovní rady? [Czech National Bank Verbal Interventions: Does the Exchange Rate React to Words from CNB Bank Board?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2016(4), pages 405-419.
  14. Shambaugh, George E. & Shen, Elaine B., 2018. "A clear advantage: The benefits of transparency to crisis recovery," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 391-416.
  15. Badinger, Harald & Nitsch, Volker, 2014. "National representation in supranational institutions: The case of the European Central Bank," Journal of Comparative Economics, Elsevier, vol. 42(1), pages 19-33.
  16. Jonne Lehtimäki & Marianne Palmu, 2022. "Who Should You Listen to in a Crisis? Differences in Communication of Central Bank Policymakers," Journal of Central Banking Theory and Practice, Central bank of Montenegro, vol. 11(3), pages 33-57.
  17. Paloviita, Maritta & Haavio, Markus & Jalasjoki, Pirkka & Kilponen, Juha, 2017. "What does “below, but close to, two percent” mean? Assessing the ECB’s reaction function with real time data," Research Discussion Papers 29/2017, Bank of Finland.
  18. Paul Hubert & Fabien Labondance, 2018. "The Effect of ECB Forward Guidance on the Term Structure of Interest Rates," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 14(5), pages 193-222, December.
  19. Donato Masciandaro & Oana Peia & Davide Romelli, 2022. "Central Bank Communication and Social Media: From Silence to Twitter," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 22187, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  20. Paul Hubert & Becky Maule, 2021. "Policy and Macro Signals from Central Bank Announcements," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 255-296, June.
  21. Sandra Schmidt & Dieter Nautz, 2012. "Central Bank Communication and the Perception of Monetary Policy by Financial Market Experts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 44(2‐3), pages 323-340, March.
  22. Cécile Bastidon, 2013. "Un modèle théorique d'intermédiation : transmission et gestion des chocs," Post-Print hal-00806524, HAL.
  23. Dräger, L. & Lamla, M.J. & Pfajfar, D., 2013. "Are Consumer Expectations Theory-Consistent? The Role of Macroeconomic Determinants and Central Bank Communication," Other publications TiSEM 4d696071-8776-4191-a84f-f, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
  24. Łyziak, Tomasz & Paloviita, Maritta, 2017. "Anchoring of inflation expectations in the euro area: Recent evidence based on survey data," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 52-73.
  25. Jung, Alexander & El-Shagi, Makram, 2015. "Has the publication of minutes helped markets to predict the monetary policy decisions of the Bank of England's MPC?," Working Paper Series 1808, European Central Bank.
  26. Neuenkirch, Matthias, 2013. "Monetary policy transmission in vector autoregressions: A new approach using central bank communication," Journal of Banking & Finance, Elsevier, vol. 37(11), pages 4278-4285.
  27. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2t6uivimtr9438i2qqu6kgfded is not listed on IDEAS
  28. Bennani, Hamza, 2018. "Media coverage and ECB policy-making: Evidence from an augmented Taylor rule," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 57(C), pages 26-38.
  29. Lamla, Michael J. & Vinogradov, Dmitri V., 2019. "Central bank announcements: Big news for little people?," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 108(C), pages 21-38.
  30. repec:fce:doctra:13-04 is not listed on IDEAS
  31. Paul Hubert, 2015. "ECB Projections as a Tool for Understanding Policy Decisions," Journal of Forecasting, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 34(7), pages 574-587, November.
  32. M.H. Middeldorp, 2011. "FOMC Communication Policy and the Accuracy of Fed Funds Futures," Working Papers 11-13, Utrecht School of Economics.
  33. Belke, Ansgar & Potrafke, Niklas, 2012. "Does government ideology matter in monetary policy? A panel data analysis for OECD countries," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 31(5), pages 1126-1139.
  34. Gabriel Caldas Montes & Rodolfo Tomás da Fonseca Nicolay, 2015. "Central bank’s perception on inflation and inflation expectations of experts," Journal of Economic Studies, Emerald Group Publishing Limited, vol. 42(6), pages 1142-1158, November.
  35. Maritta Paloviita & Markus Haavio & Pirkka Jalasjoki & Juha Kilponen, 2021. "What Does "Below, but Close to, 2 Percent" Mean? Assessing the ECB's Reaction Function with Real-Time Data," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(2), pages 125-169, June.
  36. Blix Grimaldi, Marianna, 2011. "Up for count? Central bank words and financial stress," Working Paper Series 252, Sveriges Riksbank (Central Bank of Sweden).
  37. Islas C., Alejandro & Cortez, Willy Walter, 2012. "Mexico: what is the impact of monetary policy on unemployment rates?," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  38. Hubert, Paul & Labondance, Fabien, 2021. "The signaling effects of central bank tone," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 133(C).
  39. Mikael Apel & Marianna Blix Grimaldi & Isaiah Hull, 2022. "How Much Information Do Monetary Policy Committees Disclose? Evidence from the FOMC's Minutes and Transcripts," Journal of Money, Credit and Banking, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 54(5), pages 1459-1490, August.
  40. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2020. "Interest rate setting and communication at the ECB," Working Paper Series 2443, European Central Bank.
  41. Pongsak Luangaram & Yuthana Sethapramote, 2016. "Central Bank Communication and Monetary Policy Effectiveness: Evidence from Thailand," PIER Discussion Papers 20, Puey Ungphakorn Institute for Economic Research.
  42. Jung, Alexander, 2016. "Have monetary data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Working Paper Series 1926, European Central Bank.
  43. Hubert Paul, 2017. "Qualitative and quantitative central bank communication and inflation expectations," The B.E. Journal of Macroeconomics, De Gruyter, vol. 17(1), pages 1-41, January.
  44. Selva Demiralp & Hakan Kara & Pýnar Özlü, 2011. "Monetary policy communication under inflation targeting: Do words speak louder than actions?," Koç University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum Working Papers 1128, Koc University-TUSIAD Economic Research Forum.
  45. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Central bank communication during normal and crisis time," Working Papers hal-03404315, HAL.
  46. Paweł Baranowski & Wirginia Doryń & Tomasz Łyziak & Ewa Stanisławska, 2020. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: empirical evidence on an inflation targeting economy," NBP Working Papers 326, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  47. Bluhm, Marcel, 2015. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 181-196.
  48. Alexander Jung, 2018. "Have money and credit data releases helped markets to predict the interest rate decisions of the European Central Bank?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 65(1), pages 39-67, February.
  49. Magdalena Szyszko & Aleksandra Rutkowska, 2022. "Do words transform into actions? The consistency of central banks’ communications and decisions," Equilibrium. Quarterly Journal of Economics and Economic Policy, Institute of Economic Research, vol. 17(1), pages 31-49, March.
  50. Caldas M., Gabriel, 2012. "Financial market reaction to central bank monetary policy communications under an inflation- targeting regime: the case of Brazil," Revista CEPAL, Naciones Unidas Comisión Económica para América Latina y el Caribe (CEPAL), August.
  51. Babatunde Samson Omotosho, 2020. "Central Bank Communication In Ghana: Insights From A Text Mining Analysis," Noble International Journal of Economics and Financial Research, Noble Academic Publsiher, vol. 5(1), pages 01-13, January.
  52. Mr. Ales Bulir & Mr. Martin Cihak & Mr. David-Jan Jansen, 2014. "Does the Clarity of Inflation Reports Affect Volatility in Financial Markets?," IMF Working Papers 2014/175, International Monetary Fund.
  53. Omotosho, Babatunde S., 2020. "Central Bank Communication during Economic Recessions: Evidence from Nigeria," MPRA Paper 99655, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  54. Harald Badinger & Volker Nitsch, 2011. "National Representation in Multinational Institutions: The Case of the European Central Bank," CESifo Working Paper Series 3573, CESifo.
  55. Hamza Bennani & Matthias Neuenkirch, 2017. "The (home) bias of European central bankers: new evidence based on speeches," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(11), pages 1114-1131, March.
  56. Bennani, Hamza & Fanta, Nicolas & Gertler, Pavel & Horvath, Roman, 2020. "Does central bank communication signal future monetary policy in a (post)-crisis era? The case of the ECB," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 104(C).
  57. Hou, Chenxue & Wang, Qijian, 2023. "CSRC oral communication and corporate disclosure," Journal of Corporate Finance, Elsevier, vol. 79(C).
  58. Ehrmann, Michael & Talmi, Jonathan, 2020. "Starting from a blank page? Semantic similarity in central bank communication and market volatility," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 111(C), pages 48-62.
  59. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2020. "Tweeting on Monetary Policy and Market Sentiments: The Central Bank Surprise Index," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 20134, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  60. Domenico Lombardi & Pierre L. Siklos & Samantha St. Amand, 2019. "Asset Price Spillovers from Unconventional Monetary Policy: A Global Empirical Perspective," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 15(2), pages 43-74, June.
  61. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy, Twitter and financial markets: evidence from social media traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  62. Christophe Blot & Paul Hubert, 2018. "Central bank communication during normal and crisis time," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/52p48pif509, Sciences Po.
  63. Omotosho, Babatunde S. & Tumala, Mohammed M., 2019. "A Text Mining Analysis of Central Bank Monetary Policy Communication in Nigeria," MPRA Paper 98850, University Library of Munich, Germany.
  64. Reid, Monique & Siklos, Pierre & Plessis, Stan Du, 2021. "What drives household inflation expectations in South Africa? Demographics and anchoring under inflation targeting," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 45(3).
  65. Rodolfo Tomás Da Fonseca Nicolay & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2014. "Comunicação Do Banco Central,Expectativas De Inflação E Profecia Auto-Realizável: Evidências Para Obrasil," Anais do XL Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 40th Brazilian Economics Meeting] 046, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  66. Valerio Astuti & Alessio Ciarlone & Alberto Coco, 2022. "The role of central bank communication in inflation-targeting Eastern European emerging economies," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1381, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.
  67. Aleš Bulíř & Martin Čihák & Kateřina Šmídková, 2013. "Writing Clearly: The ECB 's Monetary Policy Communication," German Economic Review, Verein für Socialpolitik, vol. 14(1), pages 50-72, February.
  68. Marozzi, Armando, 2021. "The ECB's tracker: nowcasting the press conferences of the ECB," Working Paper Series 2609, European Central Bank.
  69. Dräger, Lena & Lamla, Michael J. & Pfajfar, Damjan, 2016. "Are survey expectations theory-consistent? The role of central bank communication and news," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 85(C), pages 84-111.
  70. repec:zbw:bofrdp:2017_029 is not listed on IDEAS
  71. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli & Gaia Rubera, 2021. "Monetary policy and financial markets: evidence from Twitter traffic," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 21160, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  72. Cour-Thimann, Philippine & Jung, Alexander, 2021. "Interest-rate setting and communication at the ECB in its first twenty years," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 70(C).
  73. Chappell, Henry W. & McGregor, Rob Roy, 2018. "Committee decision-making at Sweden's Riksbank," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 53(C), pages 120-133.
  74. Ales Bulir & Martin Cihak & David-Jan Jansen, 2018. "Does the Clarity of Monetary Policy Reports Reduce Volatility in Financial Markets?," Czech Journal of Economics and Finance (Finance a uver), Charles University Prague, Faculty of Social Sciences, vol. 68(1), pages 2-17, February.
  75. Lin, Jianhao & Mei, Ziwei & Chen, Liangyuan & Zhu, Chuanqi, 2023. "Is the People's Bank of China consistent in words and deeds?," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 78(C).
  76. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/3mgbd73vkp9f9oje7utooe7vpg is not listed on IDEAS
  77. Rieder, Kilian, 2022. "Monetary policy decision-making by committee: Why, when and how it can work," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 72(C).
  78. Paweł Baranowski & Hamza Bennani & Wirginia Doryń, 2020. "Do ECB introductory statements help to predict monetary policy: evidence from tone analysis," NBP Working Papers 323, Narodowy Bank Polski.
  79. Thiago Cacicedo Cidad & Gabriel Caldas Montes, 2016. "Does Central Bank’S Perception Regarding The State Of The Economy Affect Entrepreneurs’ Expectations? Are Entrepreneurs’ Expectations Important For Investment? Empirical Evidence From Brazil," Anais do XLIII Encontro Nacional de Economia [Proceedings of the 43rd Brazilian Economics Meeting] 035, ANPEC - Associação Nacional dos Centros de Pós-Graduação em Economia [Brazilian Association of Graduate Programs in Economics].
  80. El-Shagi, Makram & Jung, Alexander, 2015. "Have minutes helped markets to predict the MPC's monetary policy decisions?," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 39(C), pages 222-234.
  81. Alexander Jung & Patrick Kuehl, 2021. "Can central bank communication help to stabilise inflation expectations?," Scottish Journal of Political Economy, Scottish Economic Society, vol. 68(3), pages 298-321, July.
  82. Neuenkirch, Matthias & Tillmann, Peter, 2014. "Inflation targeting, credibility, and non-linear Taylor rules," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 41(C), pages 30-45.
  83. M. Middeldorp, 2011. "Central Bank Transparency, the Accuracy of Professional Forecasts, and Interest Rate Volatility," Working Papers 11-12, Utrecht School of Economics.
  84. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/7v8fvu0bf08jcoi4epn8cutjm8 is not listed on IDEAS
  85. Baranowski, Paweł & Doryń, Wirginia & Łyziak, Tomasz & Stanisławska, Ewa, 2021. "Words and deeds in managing expectations: Empirical evidence from an inflation targeting economy," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 95(C), pages 49-67.
  86. Roxana Scantee & Ovidiu Stoica, 2013. "Evaluation of the European Central Bank’s Monetary Policy in Terms of Taylor Rule," Accounting and Finance Research, Sciedu Press, vol. 2(4), pages 104-104, November.
  87. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/2g6qj1trtu8q2r79ee4jp49krd is not listed on IDEAS
  88. Florian Eckert & Nina Mühlebach, 2023. "Global and local components of output gaps," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 65(5), pages 2301-2331, November.
  89. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/61ma1iq1299m89uud61kkjcjot is not listed on IDEAS
  90. Donato Masciandaro & Davide Romelli, 2016. "From Silence to Voice: Monetary Policy, Central Bank Governance and Communication," BAFFI CAREFIN Working Papers 1627, BAFFI CAREFIN, Centre for Applied Research on International Markets Banking Finance and Regulation, Universita' Bocconi, Milano, Italy.
  91. Tobback, Ellen & Nardelli, Stefano & Martens, David, 2017. "Between hawks and doves: measuring central bank communication," Working Paper Series 2085, European Central Bank.
  92. repec:hal:spmain:info:hdl:2441/52p48pif5099i9i8uilpqhgnt4 is not listed on IDEAS
  93. Bluhm, Marcel, 2011. "Investigating the monetary policy of central banks with assessment indicators," CFS Working Paper Series 2011/20, Center for Financial Studies (CFS).
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