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Forecasting Economic Time Series with Structural and Box-Jenkins Models: A Case Study

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  1. [Reference to Proietti], Tommaso, 2000. "Comparing seasonal components for structural time series models," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 16(2), pages 247-260.
  2. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso & Grassi, Stefano, 2018. "A data-cleaning augmented Kalman filter for robust estimation of state space models," Econometrics and Statistics, Elsevier, vol. 5(C), pages 107-123.
  3. Guido Ascari & Paolo Bonomolo & Qazi Haque, 2023. "The Long-Run Phillips Curve is ... a Curve," Working Papers 789, DNB.
  4. Sen Cheong Kon & Lindsay W. Turner, 2005. "Neural Network Forecasting of Tourism Demand," Tourism Economics, , vol. 11(3), pages 301-328, September.
  5. Sbrana, Giacomo, 2013. "The exact linkage between the Beveridge–Nelson decomposition and other permanent-transitory decompositions," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 30(C), pages 311-316.
  6. Franses, P.H. & McAleer, M., 1995. "Testing Nested and Non-Nested Periodically Integrated Autoregressive Models," Discussion Paper 1995-10, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
  7. Nelson, Charles R., 1988. "Spurious trend and cycle in the state space decomposition of a time series with a unit root," Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, Elsevier, vol. 12(2-3), pages 475-488.
  8. Paolo Maranzano & Alessandro Fassò & Matteo Pelagatti & Manfred Mudelsee, 2020. "Statistical Modeling of the Early-Stage Impact of a New Traffic Policy in Milan, Italy," IJERPH, MDPI, vol. 17(3), pages 1-22, February.
  9. Victor Gomez & Jorg Breitung, 1999. "The Beveridge–Nelson Decomposition: A Different Perspective with New Results," Journal of Time Series Analysis, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 20(5), pages 527-535, September.
  10. Paolo Guarda, 2002. "Potential output and the output gap in Luxembourg: some alternative methods," BCL working papers 4, Central Bank of Luxembourg.
  11. Andrés Bujosa Brun & Marcos Bujosa Brun & Antonio García-Ferrer, 2013. "Mathematical framework for pseudo-spectra of linear stochastic difference equations," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 2013-13, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico, revised May 2015.
  12. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh Dinh Minh, 2021. "A century of gaps: Untangling business cycles from secular trends," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 100(C).
  13. Ralf Dewenter & Ulrich Heimeshoff, 2017. "Predicting Advertising Volumes Using Structural Time Series Models: A Case Study," Economics Bulletin, AccessEcon, vol. 37(3), pages 1644-1652.
  14. Stephen Pollock, 2001. "Signal Extraction, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Start-up Problem," Working Papers 433, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  15. Thornton, Michael A., 2013. "Removing seasonality under a changing regime: Filtering new car sales," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 58(C), pages 4-14.
  16. Joshua C.C. Chan & Rodney W. Strachan, 2023. "Bayesian State Space Models In Macroeconometrics," Journal of Economic Surveys, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 37(1), pages 58-75, February.
  17. Bengtsson, Thomas & Cavanaugh, Joseph E., 2006. "An improved Akaike information criterion for state-space model selection," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 50(10), pages 2635-2654, June.
  18. Mihnea Constantinescu & Anh Dinh Minh Nguyen, 2017. "Unemployment or Credit: Who Holds The Potential? Results From a Small-Open Economy," Bank of Lithuania Discussion Paper Series 4, Bank of Lithuania.
  19. Marczak, Martyna & Proietti, Tommaso, 2016. "Outlier detection in structural time series models: The indicator saturation approach," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 180-202.
  20. Mr. Sebastian Acevedo Mejia & Lu Han & Miss Marie S Kim & Ms. Nicole Laframboise, 2016. "Flying to Paradise: The Role of Airlift in the Caribbean Tourism Industry," IMF Working Papers 2016/033, International Monetary Fund.
  21. Pollock, D. S. G., 2003. "Recursive estimation in econometrics," Computational Statistics & Data Analysis, Elsevier, vol. 44(1-2), pages 37-75, October.
  22. Kosei Fukuda, 2010. "Three new empirical perspectives on the Hodrick–Prescott parameter," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 39(3), pages 713-731, December.
  23. repec:zbw:bofrdp:1998_006 is not listed on IDEAS
  24. Maravall, Agustin & Planas, Christophe, 1999. "Estimation error and the specification of unobserved component models," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 92(2), pages 325-353, October.
  25. Stephen Pollock, 2001. "Signal Extraction, Maximum Likelihood Estimation and the Start-up Problem," Working Papers 433, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  26. Pollock, D. S. G., 2001. "Methodology for trend estimation," Economic Modelling, Elsevier, vol. 18(1), pages 75-96, January.
  27. Garcia-Ferrer, Antonio & Queralt, Ricardo A., 1998. "Can univariate models forecast turning points in seasonal economic time series?," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 14(4), pages 433-446, December.
  28. Breitung, Jörg, 1998. "On model based seasonal adjustment procedures," SFB 373 Discussion Papers 1998,12, Humboldt University of Berlin, Interdisciplinary Research Project 373: Quantification and Simulation of Economic Processes.
  29. Huishu Zhang & Jianrong Wei & Jiping Huang, 2014. "Scaling and Predictability in Stock Markets: A Comparative Study," PLOS ONE, Public Library of Science, vol. 9(3), pages 1-5, March.
  30. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The time-varying NAIRU and potential output in Finland," Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  31. J. S. Shonkwiler, 1992. "A Structural Time Series Model Of Nevada Gross Taxable Gaming Revenues," The Review of Regional Studies, Southern Regional Science Association, vol. 22(3), pages 239-249, Winter.
  32. Shah, Muhammad Ibrahim & Kirikkaleli, Dervis & Adedoyin, Festus Fatai, 2021. "Regime switching effect of COVID-19 pandemic on renewable electricity generation in Denmark," Renewable Energy, Elsevier, vol. 175(C), pages 797-806.
  33. Constantinescu, Mihnea & Nguyen, Anh D.M., 2018. "Unemployment or credit: Which one holds the potential? Results for a small open economy with a low degree of financialization," Economic Systems, Elsevier, vol. 42(4), pages 649-664.
  34. Stephen Pollock, 2002. "Recursive Estimation in Econometrics," Working Papers 462, Queen Mary University of London, School of Economics and Finance.
  35. Saligari, Grant R. & Snyder, Ralph D., 1997. "Trends, lead times and forecasting," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(4), pages 477-488, December.
  36. Harry M. Karamujic, 2011. "Comparative Analysis of Australian Residential Mortgage (Home Loan) Interest Rates," Margin: The Journal of Applied Economic Research, National Council of Applied Economic Research, vol. 5(3), pages 311-341, August.
  37. Pollock, D. S. G., 2000. "Trend estimation and de-trending via rational square-wave filters," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 99(2), pages 317-334, December.
  38. Shujie Shen & Gang Li & Haiyan Song, 2009. "Effect of Seasonality Treatment on the Forecasting Performance of Tourism Demand Models," Tourism Economics, , vol. 15(4), pages 693-708, December.
  39. Candy Mei Fung Tang & Brian King & Stephen Pratt, 2017. "Predicting hotel occupancies with public data," Tourism Economics, , vol. 23(5), pages 1096-1113, August.
  40. Fanhua Yu & Huibowen Hao & Qingliang Li, 2021. "An Ensemble 3D Convolutional Neural Network for Spatiotemporal Soil Temperature Forecasting," Sustainability, MDPI, vol. 13(16), pages 1-16, August.
  41. Quanrui Song & Jianxu Liu & Songsak Sriboonchitta, 2019. "Risk Measurement of Stock Markets in BRICS, G7, and G20: Vine Copulas versus Factor Copulas," Mathematics, MDPI, vol. 7(3), pages 1-16, March.
  42. Wright, Brian D. & Williams, Jeffrey C., 1990. "The Behavior of Markets for Storable Commodities," 1990 Conference (34th), February 13-15, 1990, Brisbane, Australia 145482, Australian Agricultural and Resource Economics Society.
  43. Ester Ruiz & Fernando Lorenzo, 1997. "Prediction with univariate time series models: The Iberia case," Documentos de Trabajo (working papers) 0298, Department of Economics - dECON.
  44. Johan Verbeeck & Christel Faes & Thomas Neyens & Niel Hens & Geert Verbeke & Patrick Deboosere & Geert Molenberghs, 2023. "A linear mixed model to estimate COVID‐19‐induced excess mortality," Biometrics, The International Biometric Society, vol. 79(1), pages 417-425, March.
  45. Hotta, Luiz K. & Morettin, Pedro A. & Pereira, Pedro L. Valls, 1992. "The Effect of Overlapping Aggregation on Time Series Models: An Application to the Unemployment Rate in Brazil," Brazilian Review of Econometrics, Sociedade Brasileira de Econometria - SBE, vol. 12(2), November.
  46. Thury, Gerhard & Witt, Stephen F., 1998. "Forecasting industrial production using structural time series models," Omega, Elsevier, vol. 26(6), pages 751-767, December.
  47. Ardeni, Pier Giorgio & Wright, Brian, 1990. "The long term behavior of commodity prices," Policy Research Working Paper Series 358, The World Bank.
  48. Kaiser Remiro, Regina, 1998. "Detection and estimation of structural changes and ouliers in unobserved components," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 9847, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  49. Fackler, Paul L., 1989. "Modeling Trend and Higher Moment Properties of U.S. Corn Yields," 1989 Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk Meeting, April 9-12, 1989, Sanibel Island, Florida 271523, Regional Research Projects > S-232: Quantifying Long Run Agricultural Risks and Evaluating Farmer Responses to Risk.
  50. C. R. McKenzie & Michael McAleer, 2001. "Comparing Tests of Autoregressive Versus Moving Average Errors in Regression Models Using Bahadur's Asymptotic Relative Efficiency," ISER Discussion Paper 0537, Institute of Social and Economic Research, Osaka University.
  51. Panayotis G. Michaelides & Efthymios G. Tsionas & Angelos T. Vouldis & Konstantinos N. Konstantakis & Panagiotis Patrinos, 2018. "A Semi-Parametric Non-linear Neural Network Filter: Theory and Empirical Evidence," Computational Economics, Springer;Society for Computational Economics, vol. 51(3), pages 637-675, March.
  52. Walter Labys, 2005. "Commodity Price Fluctuations: A Century of Analysis," Working Papers Working Paper 2005-01, Regional Research Institute, West Virginia University.
  53. Kaiser Remiro, Regina & Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Short-term and long-term trends, seasonal and the business cycle," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6291, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  54. Antonio García Ferrer & Juan del Hoyo Bernat & Peter C. Young & Alfonso Novales Cinca, 1993. "Further evidence on forecasting international GNP growth rates using unobserved components transfer function models," Documentos de Trabajo del ICAE 9312, Universidad Complutense de Madrid, Facultad de Ciencias Económicas y Empresariales, Instituto Complutense de Análisis Económico.
  55. Chen, Chunhang, 1997. "Robustness properties of some forecasting methods for seasonal time series: A Monte Carlo study," International Journal of Forecasting, Elsevier, vol. 13(2), pages 269-280, June.
  56. Jo C. Vu, 2006. "Effect of Demand Volume on Forecasting Accuracy," Tourism Economics, , vol. 12(2), pages 263-276, June.
  57. Francis X. Diebold & Lutz Kilian & Marc Nerlove, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," PIER Working Paper Archive 06-019, Penn Institute for Economic Research, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania.
    • Diebold, F.X. & Kilian, L. & Nerlove, Marc, 2006. "Time Series Analysis," Working Papers 28556, University of Maryland, Department of Agricultural and Resource Economics.
  58. Kaiser Remiro, Regina & Maravall, Agustín, 1999. "Seasonal outliers in time series," DES - Working Papers. Statistics and Econometrics. WS 6333, Universidad Carlos III de Madrid. Departamento de Estadística.
  59. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2020. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Papers 2005.02535, arXiv.org, revised Mar 2021.
  60. Valadkhani, Abbas & Costello, Greg & Ratti, Ronald, 2016. "House price cycles in Australia’s four largest capital cities," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 11-22.
  61. Sucharita Ghosh & Donald Lien, 2001. "Forecasting with preliminary data: a comparison of two methods," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 33(6), pages 721-726.
  62. Naci H. Mocan & Kudret Topyan, 1993. "Illicit Drug Use and Health: Analysis and Projections of New York City Birth Outcomes Using a Kalman Filter Model," NBER Working Papers 4359, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  63. Rasi, Chris-Marie & Viikari, Jan-Markus, 1998. "The time-varying NAIRU and potential output in Finland," Bank of Finland Research Discussion Papers 6/1998, Bank of Finland.
  64. repec:rri:wpaper:200501 is not listed on IDEAS
  65. Philippe Goulet Coulombe & Maximilian Gobel, 2021. "Arctic Amplification of Anthropogenic Forcing: A Vector Autoregressive Analysis," Working Papers 21-04, Chair in macroeconomics and forecasting, University of Quebec in Montreal's School of Management.
  66. Pablo Marshall, 1998. "Prediccion De Series De Ventas: Un Analisis De Cointegracion Con El Pib," Abante, Escuela de Administracion. Pontificia Universidad Católica de Chile., vol. 1(1), pages 89-109.
  67. Michael A. Kouparitsas, 1999. "Is there evidence of the new economy in the data?," Working Paper Series WP-99-22, Federal Reserve Bank of Chicago.
  68. Park, Gonyung, 1996. "The role of detrending methods in a model of real business cycles," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 18(3), pages 479-501.
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