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Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan during and after the Global Financial Crisis

Author

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  • Gang, Ira N.
  • Gatskova, Kseniia
  • Landon-Lane, John
  • Yun, Myeong-Su

Abstract

We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Gang, Ira N. & Gatskova, Kseniia & Landon-Lane, John & Yun, Myeong-Su, 2017. "Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan during and after the Global Financial Crisis," GLO Discussion Paper Series 11, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:glodps:11
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    Cited by:

    1. Abdulloev, Ilhom, 2020. "Changes in the Forsaken Schooling and Migration Relationship in Tajikistan," IZA Discussion Papers 13435, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Education of the Head and Financial Vulnerability of Households: Evidence from a Household’s Survey Data in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 439-463, January.
    3. Antonio Acconcia & Maria Carannante & Michelangelo Misuraca & Germana Scepi, 2020. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty with Latent Transition Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 1-31, August.
    4. Arapi-Gjini, Arjola & Möllers, Judith & Herzfeld, Thomas, 2020. "Measuring dynamic effects of remittances on poverty and inequality with evidence from Kosovo," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 283-308.
    5. Gatskova, Kseniia & Kozlov, Vladimir, 2019. "Doubling Up or Moving Out? The Effect of International Labour Migration on Household Size," EconStor Open Access Articles and Book Chapters, ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics, pages 162-179.
    6. Antonio Acconcia & Maria Carannante & Michelangelo Misuraca & Germana Scepi, 0. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty with Latent Transition Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-31.
    7. Khac Linh Bui & Thanh Hang Bui, 2022. "Does Rural Credit Mediate Vulnerability Under Idiosyncratic and Covariate Shocks? Empirical Evidence from Vietnam Using a Multilevel Model," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 34(1), pages 172-224, February.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mobility measurement; vulnerability; poverty; inequality; measurement; Tajikistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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