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Welfare dynamics measurement : two definitions of a vulnerability line and their empirical application

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  • Dang , Hai-Anh H.
  • Lanjouw, Peter F.

Abstract

Little research currently exists on a vulnerability line that distinguishes the poor population from the population that is not poor but that still faces significant risk of falling back into poverty. This paper attempts to fill this gap by proposing vulnerability lines that can be straightforwardly estimated with panel or cross-sectional household survey data, in rich- and poor-country settings. These vulnerability lines offer a means to broaden traditional poverty analysis and can also assist with the identification of the middle class or resilient population groups. Empirical illustrations are provided using panel data from the United States (Panel Study of Income Dynamics) and Vietnam (Vietnam Household Living Standards Survey) for the period 2004-2008 and cross-sectional data from India (National Sample Survey) for the period 2004-2009. The estimation results indicate that in Vietnam and India during this time period, the population living in poverty and the middle class have been falling and expanding, respectively, while the opposite has been occurring in the United States.

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  • Dang , Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw, Peter F., 2014. "Welfare dynamics measurement : two definitions of a vulnerability line and their empirical application," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6944, The World Bank.
  • Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:6944
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    Cited by:

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    2. Nicolas Hérault & Stephen P. Jenkins, 2019. "How valid are synthetic panel estimates of poverty dynamics?," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 17(1), pages 51-76, March.
    3. Grant J. Cameron & Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Mustafa Dinc & James Foster & Michael M. Lokshin, 2021. "Measuring the Statistical Capacity of Nations," Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, Department of Economics, University of Oxford, vol. 83(4), pages 870-896, August.
    4. César Calvo, 2016. "Vulnerability to Poverty: Theory," Working Papers 2016-3, Lima School of Economics.
    5. Dang,Hai-Anh H. & Lokshin,Michael M. & Abanokova,Ksenia & Bussolo,Maurizio, 2018. "Inequality and Welfare Dynamics in the Russian Federation during 1994-2015," Policy Research Working Paper Series 8629, The World Bank.
    6. Alfani, Federica & Dabalen, Andrew & Fisker, Peter & Molini, Vasco, 2015. "Vulnerability to malnutrition in the West African Sahel," Policy Research Working Paper Series 7171, The World Bank.
    7. Jehovaness Aikaeli & David Garcés‐Urzainqui & Kenneth Mdadila, 2021. "Understanding poverty dynamics and vulnerability in Tanzania: 2012–2018," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1869-1894, November.
    8. World Bank, 2016. "Tunisia Poverty Assessment 2015," World Bank Publications - Reports 24410, The World Bank Group.
    9. Anh Thu Quang Pham & Pundarik Mukhopadhaya & Ha Vu, 2021. "Estimating poverty and vulnerability to monetary and non-monetary poverty: the case of Vietnam," Empirical Economics, Springer, vol. 61(6), pages 3125-3177, December.
    10. Peter Lanjouw & Hai-Anh Dang, 2018. "Welfare dynamics in India over a quarter-century: Poverty, vulnerability, and mobility, 1987–2012," WIDER Working Paper Series 175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    11. Eric Rougier & Jean‐Philippe Berrou & Matthieu Clément & François Combarnous & Dominique Darbon, 2021. "Should we call it a (middle) class? A socio‐economic exploration of the Vietnamese middle‐income group," Journal of International Development, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 33(8), pages 1321-1345, November.
    12. Hai-Anh H. Dang & Michael M. Lokshin & Kseniya Abanokova & Maurizio Bussolo, 2020. "Welfare Dynamics and Inequality in the Russian Federation During 1994–2015," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 32(4), pages 812-846, September.
    13. Vincenzo Salvucci & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Poverty and vulnerability in Mozambique: An analysis of dynamics and correlates in light of the Covid‐19 crisis using synthetic panels," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1895-1918, November.
    14. María Edo & Walter Sosa Escudero & Marcela Svarc, 2021. "A multidimensional approach to measuring the middle class," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 19(1), pages 139-162, March.
    15. Hai-Anh H. Dang, 2019. "To impute or not to impute, and how? A review of alternative poverty estimation methods in the context of unavailable consumption data," Working Papers 507, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    16. Dang, Hai-Anh H. & Abanokova, Kseniya & Lokshin, Michael M., 2020. "Life Satisfaction, Subjective Wealth, and Adaptation to Vulnerability in the Russian Federation during 2002-2017," GLO Discussion Paper Series 492, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    17. Hai‐Anh Dang & Peter Lanjouw & Elise Vrijburg, 2021. "Poverty in India in the face of Covid‐19: Diagnosis and prospects," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1816-1837, November.
    18. Hai‐Anh H. Dang, 2021. "To impute or not to impute, and how? A review of poverty‐estimation methods in the absence of consumption data," Development Policy Review, Overseas Development Institute, vol. 39(6), pages 1008-1030, November.
    19. Peter Lanjouw & Hai-Anh Dang, 2018. "Inequality trends and dynamics in India: The bird’s-eye and the granular perspectives," WIDER Working Paper Series 189, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    20. Ira N. Gang & Kseniia Gatskova & John Landon-Lane & Myeong-Su Yun, 2018. "Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan During and After the Global Financial Crisis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 925-951, August.
    21. Alfani, Federica & Dabalen, Andrew & Fisker, Peter & Molini, Vasco, 2019. "Vulnerability to stunting in the West African Sahel," Food Policy, Elsevier, vol. 83(C), pages 39-47.
    22. Hai?Anh H. Dang & Peter Lanjouw, 2018. "Inequality trends and dynamics in India: The bird's-eye and the granular perspectives," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-189, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    23. Upton, Joanna & Tennant, Elizabeth & Florella, Kathryn J. & Barrett, Christopher B., 2021. "A Comparative Assessment of Resilience Measuremen tApproaches," Working Papers 316614, Cornell University, Department of Applied Economics and Management.
    24. Hai‐Anh H. Dang & Peter Lanjouw, 2018. "Welfare dynamics in India over a quarter-century: Poverty, vulnerability, and mobility, 1987-2012," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2018-175, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    25. Tseday Jemaneh Mekasha & Finn Tarp, 2021. "Understanding poverty dynamics in Ethiopia: Implications for the likely impact of COVID‐19," Review of Development Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 25(4), pages 1838-1868, November.

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    Keywords

    Rural Poverty Reduction; Regional Economic Development; Population Policies; Inequality;
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