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Exact Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chain Models

Author

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  • John Geweke
  • Robert C. Marshall
  • Gary A. Zarkin

Abstract

Methods for exact Bayesian inference under a uniform diffuse prior are set forth for the continuous time homogeneous Markov chain model. It is shown how the exact posterior distribution of any function of interest may be computed using Monte Carlo integration. The solution handles the problems of embeddability in a very natural way, and provides (to our knowledge) the only solution that systematically takes this problem into account. The methods are illustrated using several sets of data.

Suggested Citation

  • John Geweke & Robert C. Marshall & Gary A. Zarkin, 1986. "Exact Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chain Models," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 53(4), pages 653-669.
    • Handle: RePEc:oup:restud:v:53:y:1986:i:4:p:653-669.
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    File URL: http://hdl.handle.net/10.2307/2297610
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2010. "Comparative analysis of labor market dynamics using Markov processes: An application to informality," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 17(4), pages 621-631, August.
    2. Sripad Motiram & Ashish Singh, 2012. "How Close Does the Apple Fall to the Tree?: Some Evidence on Intergenerational Occupational Mobility from India," WIDER Working Paper Series wp-2012-101, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    3. Ralitza Dimova & Ira N. Gang & John S. Landon-Lane, 2005. "The Informal Sector During Crisis and Transition," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2005-18, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    4. Ira N. Gang & Kseniia Gatskova & John Landon-Lane & Myeong-Su Yun, 2018. "Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan During and After the Global Financial Crisis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 138(3), pages 925-951, August.
    5. Denis Fougère & Thierry Kamionka, 2003. "Bayesian inference for the mover-stayer model in continuous time with an application to labour market transition data," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 18(6), pages 697-723.
    6. John S. Landon-Lane & Catherine Y. Co & Myeong-Su Yun, 2006. "Inter-state dynamics of invention activities, 1930-2000," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1111-1134.
    7. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William F., 2008. "Cyclical Movements in Unemployment and Informality in Developing Countries," IZA Discussion Papers 3514, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    8. Pavla Nikolovova & Filip Pertold & Mario Vozar, 2014. "Self-employment and Small Workplaces in the Czech and Slovak Republics: Microeconometric Analysis of Labor Force Transitions," Proceedings of Economics and Finance Conferences 0402132, International Institute of Social and Economic Sciences.
    9. Bosch, Mariano & Maloney, William, 2006. "Gross worker flows in the presence of informal labor markets. The Mexican experience 1987-2002," LSE Research Online Documents on Economics 19798, London School of Economics and Political Science, LSE Library.
    10. Sripad Motiram & Ashish Singh, 2012. "How close does the apple fall to the tree? Some evidence on intergenerational occupational mobility from India," Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai Working Papers 2012-017, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research, Mumbai, India.
    11. D. Lederman & W.F. Maloney & J. Messina, 2011. "The Fall of Wage Flexibility," World Bank Publications - Reports 23575, The World Bank Group.

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