Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan during and after the Global Financial Crisis
We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition” almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period”. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerability to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan.
|Date of creation:||29 Jul 2016|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: New Jersey Hall - 75 Hamilton Street, New Brunswick, NJ 08901-1248|
Phone: (732) 932-7363
Fax: (732) 932-7416
Web page: http://economics.rutgers.edu/
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Wim Naude & Amelia Santos-Paulino & Mark McGillivray, 2009. "Measuring Vulnerability: An Overview and Introduction," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 183-191.
- Nicola Angelillo, 2014. "Vulnerability to poverty in China: a subjective poverty line approach," Journal of Chinese Economic and Business Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 12(4), pages 315-331, November.
- Dang , Hai-Anh H. & Lanjouw, Peter F., 2014. "Welfare dynamics measurement : two definitions of a vulnerability line and their empirical application," Policy Research Working Paper Series 6944, The World Bank.
- John S. Landon-Lane & Catherine Y. Co & Myeong-Su Yun, 2006.
"Inter-state dynamics of invention activities, 1930-2000,"
Journal of Applied Econometrics,
John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 21(8), pages 1111-1134.
- Catherine Co & John Landon-Lane & Myeong-Su Yun, 2005. "Inter-State Dynamics of Invention Activities, 1930-2000," Departmental Working Papers 200511, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Ilhom Abdulloev & Ira N Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," The European Journal of Development Research, Palgrave Macmillan;European Association of Development Research and Training Institutes (EADI), vol. 26(4), pages 509-526, September.
- Ilhom Abdulloev & Ira Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1420, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
- Ilhom Abdulloev & Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," Working Papers 342, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
- Abdulloev, Ilhom & Gang, Ira N. & Yun, Myeong-Su, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," IZA Discussion Papers 8226, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ira N. Gang, 2014. "Migration, Education and the Gender Gap in Labour Force Participation," Departmental Working Papers 201407, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Alexander M. Danzer & Barbara Dietz & Kseniia Gatskova, 2013. "Migration and Remittances in Tajikistan: Survey Technical Report," Working Papers 327, Leibniz Institut für Ost- und Südosteuropaforschung (Institute for East and Southeast European Studies).
- John Geweke & Robert C. Marshall & Gary A. Zarkin, 1986. "Exact Inference for Continuous Time Markov Chain Models," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 53(4), pages 653-669.
- Gang, Ira N. & Landon-Lane, John & Yun, Myeong-Su, 2002. "Gender Differences in German Upward Income Mobility," IZA Discussion Papers 580, Institute for the Study of Labor (IZA).
- Ira N. Gang & Myeong-Su Yun & John Landon-Lane, 2002. "Gender Differences in German Upward Income Mobility," Departmental Working Papers 200221, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
- Raghbendra Jha & Tu Dang & Yusuf Tashrifov, 2010. "Economic vulnerability and poverty in Tajikistan," Economic Change and Restructuring, Springer, vol. 43(2), pages 95-112, May.
- Raghbendra Jha & Tu Dang & Yusuf Tashrifov, 2008. "Economic Vulnerability and Poverty in Tajikistan," Departmental Working Papers 2008-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Indranil Dutta & James Foster & Ajit Mishra, 2011. "On measuring vulnerability to poverty," Social Choice and Welfare, Springer;The Society for Social Choice and Welfare, vol. 37(4), pages 743-761, October.
- James E. Foster & Indranil Dutta & Ajit Mishra, 2010. "On Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty," Working Papers 2010-13, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
- Shorrocks, Anthony, 1978. "Income inequality and income mobility," Journal of Economic Theory, Elsevier, vol. 19(2), pages 376-393, December.
- Ira N. Gang & John Landon-Lane & Myeong-Su Yun, 2009. "Measuring Income Assimilation of Migrants to Germany," Schmollers Jahrbuch : Journal of Applied Social Science Studies / Zeitschrift für Wirtschafts- und Sozialwissenschaften, Duncker & Humblot, Berlin, vol. 129(2), pages 333-342.
- Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2014. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements into and out of poverty," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 107(C), pages 112-128.
- Dang, Hai-Anh & Lanjouw, Peter & Luoto, Jill & McKenzie, David, 2011. "Using repeated cross-sections to explore movements in and out of poverty," Policy Research Working Paper Series 5550, The World Bank.
- Alexander M. Danzer & Oleksiy Ivaschenko, 2010. "Migration patterns in a remittances dependent economy: Evidence from Tajikistan during the global financial crisis," Migration Letters, Transnational Press London, UK, vol. 7(2), pages 190-202, October.
- Narin Kruy & Donghun Kim & Makoto Kakinaka, 2010. "Poverty and Vulnerability: An Examination of Chronic and Transient Poverty in Cambodia," International Area Studies Review, Center for International Area Studies, Hankuk University of Foreign Studies, vol. 13(4), pages 3-23, Winter.
- Shorrocks, A F, 1976. "Income Mobility and the Markov Assumption," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 86(343), pages 566-578, September.
- Yuan Zhang & Guanghua Wan, 2009. "How Precisely Can We Estimate Vulnerability to Poverty?," Oxford Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(3), pages 277-287.
- Geweke, John & Marshall, Robert C & Zarkin, Gary A, 1986. "Mobility Indices in Continuous Time Markov Chains," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 54(6), pages 1407-1423, November.
- Katsushi Imai & Raghav Gaiha & Woojin Kang, 2011. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 43(25), pages 3603-3618.
- Raghav Gaiha & Katsushi Imai & Woojin Kang, 2007. "Vulnerability and poverty dynamics in Vietnam," The School of Economics Discussion Paper Series 0708, Economics, The University of Manchester.
- Dilip Ratha & Sanket Mohapatra & Ani Silwal, 2009. "Outlook for Remittance Flows 2009-2011 : Remittances Expected to Fall by 7-10 Percent in 2009," World Bank Other Operational Studies 10975, The World Bank.
- World Bank, 2011. "Migration and Remittances Factbook 2011 : Second Edition," World Bank Publications, The World Bank, number 2522, June.
- Martina Celidoni, 2015. "Decomposing Vulnerability to Poverty," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 61(1), pages 59-74, 03.
- Shorrocks, A F, 1978. "The Measurement of Mobility," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 46(5), pages 1013-1024, September. Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:rut:rutres:201608. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: ()
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.