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Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan During and After the Global Financial Crisis

Author

Listed:
  • Ira Gang

    () (Rutgers University)

  • Kseniia Gatskova

    () (OS–Regensburg)

  • John Landon-Lane

    () (Rutgers University)

  • Myeong-Su Yun

    () (Inha University)

Abstract

We examine vulnerability to poverty in Tajikistan during the global financial crisis, focusing on the roles played by international migration and remittances, using a formal, practical, and easily decomposable vulnerability measure. Our strategy is to estimate a Markov transition probability matrix with the aim of identifying the vulnerability of households to poverty. Importantly, by introducing the index of vulnerability as the weighted probability of a household falling into poverty over a given time horizon, we can use the estimated dynamics to assess the short, medium and long-run vulnerability. We find that during the “recession transition†almost all households were vulnerable to poverty while almost none were during the “recovery period†. Overall, urban households, more educated households and households receiving remittances from international labor migrants were less vulnerable to poverty. While households with a current or very recent migrant did not have a significantly lower measured vulnerabilit to poverty, those households receiving remittances from migrants had a lower vulnerability to poverty. Our findings stress that the international labor migration from Tajikistan may not be considered as a reliable means of welfare security for the households because external economic shocks and internal political decisions may negatively affect Russian economy and lead to a reduction of remittances flow to Tajikistan.

Suggested Citation

  • Ira Gang & Kseniia Gatskova & John Landon-Lane & Myeong-Su Yun, 2016. "Vulnerability to Poverty: Tajikistan During and After the Global Financial Crisis," CReAM Discussion Paper Series 1612, Centre for Research and Analysis of Migration (CReAM), Department of Economics, University College London.
  • Handle: RePEc:crm:wpaper:1612
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Abdulloev, Ilhom, 2020. "Changes in the Forsaken Schooling and Migration Relationship in Tajikistan," IZA Discussion Papers 13435, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    2. Liaqat Ali & Muhammad Kamran Naqi Khan & Habib Ahmad, 2020. "Education of the Head and Financial Vulnerability of Households: Evidence from a Household’s Survey Data in Pakistan," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 147(2), pages 439-463, January.
    3. Antonio Acconcia & Maria Carannante & Michelangelo Misuraca & Germana Scepi, 2020. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty with Latent Transition Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 151(1), pages 1-31, August.
    4. Gatskova, Kseniia & Kozlov, Vladimir, 2018. "Doubling Up or Moving Out? The Effect of International Labor Migration on Household Size," CEI Working Paper Series 2017-6, Center for Economic Institutions, Institute of Economic Research, Hitotsubashi University.
    5. Arjola Arapi-Gjini & Judith Möllers & Thomas Herzfeld, 2020. "Measuring Dynamic Effects of Remittances on Poverty and Inequality with Evidence from Kosovo," Eastern European Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 58(4), pages 283-308, July.
    6. Antonio Acconcia & Maria Carannante & Michelangelo Misuraca & Germana Scepi, 0. "Measuring Vulnerability to Poverty with Latent Transition Analysis," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 0, pages 1-31.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    mobility measurement; vulnerability; poverty; inequality; measurement; Tajikistan;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J60 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - General
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement
    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty

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