IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/zbw/bubdps/052017.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany

Author

Listed:
  • Stähler, Nikolai

Abstract

By simulating various (labour market) integration scenarios with the aid of a New Keynesian DSGE model, this paper explores the potential economic consequences and transmission mechanisms resulting from the recent refugee migration to Germany. We find that the long-run costs and benefits for domestic agents depend critically on the skill levels migrants will obtain in the long run. A failure to integrate the about 800,000 migrants (equivalent to 1% of initial German population) could reduce per capita output and consumption by 0.43% and 0.48%, respectively, while integration measures that improve their qualification structure could even yield per capita output and consumption gains of 0.34% and 0.38%, respectively. Measures that cause the migrant qualification structure to closely match that of the native population over the long term do not lead to significant changes in GDP and consumption. Overall, our model simulations suggest that the macroeconomic impact of refugee migration is small.

Suggested Citation

  • Stähler, Nikolai, 2017. "A model-based analysis of the macroeconomic impact of the refugee migration to Germany," Discussion Papers 05/2017, Deutsche Bundesbank.
  • Handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052017
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://www.econstor.eu/bitstream/10419/157252/1/884260739.pdf
    Download Restriction: no

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Forni, Lorenzo & Monteforte, Libero & Sessa, Luca, 2009. "The general equilibrium effects of fiscal policy: Estimates for the Euro area," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(3-4), pages 559-585, April.
    2. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2017. "On the economics and politics of refugee migration," Economic Policy, CEPR;CES;MSH, vol. 32(91), pages 497-550.
    3. Christian Dustmann & Kristine Vasiljeva & Anna Piil Damm, 2019. "Refugee Migration and Electoral Outcomes," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(5), pages 2035-2091.
    4. Michele Battisti & Gabriel Felbermayr & Panu Poutvaara, 2015. "Einwanderung: Welchen Nutzen hat die einheimische Bevölkerung?," ifo Schnelldienst, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich, vol. 68(18), September.
    5. Cavallari, Lilia, 2010. "Exports and foreign direct investments in an endogenous-entry model with real and nominal uncertainty," Journal of Macroeconomics, Elsevier, vol. 32(1), pages 300-313, March.
    6. Beyer, Robert, 2016. "The Labor Market Performance of Immigrants in Germany," Annual Conference 2016 (Augsburg): Demographic Change 145799, Verein für Socialpolitik / German Economic Association.
    7. Attinasi, Maria-Grazia & Prammer, Doris & Stähler, Nikolai & Tasso, Martino & Van Parys, Stefan, 2016. "Budget-neutral labour tax wedge reductions: A simulation-based analysis for selected euro area countries," Discussion Papers 26/2016, Deutsche Bundesbank.
    8. Christian Dustmann & Francesco Fasani & Tommaso Frattini & Luigi Minale & Uta Schönberg, 2016. "On the Economics and Politics of Refugee Migration," CESifo Working Paper Series 6111, CESifo Group Munich.
    9. Braun, Sebastian & Weber, Henning, 2016. "How do regional labor markets adjust to immigration? A dynamic analysis for post-war Germany," Kiel Working Papers 2025, Kiel Institute for the World Economy (IfW).
    10. Joakim Ruist, 2015. "The Fiscal Cost of Refugee Immigration: The Example of Sweden," Population and Development Review, The Population Council, Inc., vol. 41(4), pages 567-581, December.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Refugee Migration; Labour Market Integration; Macroeconomics;

    JEL classification:

    • F22 - International Economics - - International Factor Movements and International Business - - - International Migration
    • J61 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Geographic Labor Mobility; Immigrant Workers
    • J31 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Wages, Compensation, and Labor Costs - - - Wage Level and Structure; Wage Differentials
    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:zbw:bubdps:052017. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (ZBW - Leibniz Information Centre for Economics). General contact details of provider: http://edirc.repec.org/data/dbbgvde.html .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.