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Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry


  • Peter Egger
  • Michael Pfaffermayr


This paper develops a structural empirical general equilibrium model of aggregate bilateral trade with path dependence of country-pair level exporter status. Such path dependence is motivated through informational costs about serving a foreign market for first-time entry of (firms in) an export market versus continued export services to that market. We embed the theoretical model into a structural dynamic stochastic econometric model of bilateral selection into import markets and apply it to a data-set of aggregate bilateral exports among 120 countries over the period 1995-2004. In particular, we disentangle the role of changes in trade costs, in labor endowments, and in total factor productivity for trade, bilateral market entry, numbers of firms active, and welfare. Dynamic gains from trade differ significantly from static ones, and path-dependence in market entry cushions effects of impulses in fundamental variables that are detrimental to bilateral trade.

Suggested Citation

  • Peter Egger & Michael Pfaffermayr, 2011. "Structural Estimation of Gravity Models with Path-Dependent Market Entry," FIW Research Reports series III-007, FIW.
  • Handle: RePEc:wsr:ecbook:2011:i:iii-007

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Lota D. Tamini & Maurice Doyon & Rodrigue Simon, 2016. "Analyzing Trade Liberalization Effects in the Egg Sector Using a Dynamic Gravity Model," Canadian Journal of Agricultural Economics/Revue canadienne d'agroeconomie, Canadian Agricultural Economics Society/Societe canadienne d'agroeconomie, vol. 64(2), pages 383-411, June.
    2. Chiţu, Livia & Eichengreen, Barry & Mehl, Arnaud, 2014. "History, gravity and international finance," Journal of International Money and Finance, Elsevier, vol. 46(C), pages 104-129.
    3. Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj, 2012. "Distance Sensitivity of Export: A Firm-Product Level Approach," Working Papers 2012:33, Lund University, Department of Economics.
    4. Tamini, Lota D. & Doyon, Maurice & Simon, Rodrigue, 2012. "Analyzing trade liberalization effect in egg sector using a dynamic gravity model," MPRA Paper 39315, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    5. Jienwatcharamongkhol, Viroj, 2012. "Distance Sensitivity of Export: A Firm-Product Level Approach," Ratio Working Papers 201, The Ratio Institute.
    6. Egger, Peter H. & Tarlea, Filip, 2015. "Multi-way clustering estimation of standard errors in gravity models," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 134(C), pages 144-147.
    7. Buongiorno, Joseph & Rougieux, Paul & Barkaoui, Ahmed & Zhu, Shushuai & Harou, Patrice, 2014. "Potential impact of a Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership on the global forest sector," Journal of Forest Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(3), pages 252-266.

    More about this item


    Bilateral trade flows; Gravity equation; Dynamic random effects model; Sample selection;

    JEL classification:

    • F10 - International Economics - - Trade - - - General
    • F12 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Models of Trade with Imperfect Competition and Scale Economies; Fragmentation
    • F17 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Trade Forecasting and Simulation

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