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To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis

Author

Listed:
  • Martina Sartori

    (Department of Economics, University Of Venice CÃ Foscari and Bocconi University)

  • Davide Geneletti

    (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering)

  • Stefano Schiavo

    (University of Trento, Department of Economics and Management and School of International Studies)

  • Rocco Scolozzi

    (University of Trento, Department of Civil, Environmental and Mechanical Engineering)

Abstract

This paper assesses the structural, joint implications of climate and land-use change on agriculture in the European Union, by means of a computable general equilibrium model of the world economy. The counterfactual simulations are conducted at the year 2050 under the second Shared Socioeconomic Pathway. We find that climate and land-use change are likely to affect agricultural systems very differently across Europe. Northern countries are expected to benefit from climate change impacts, whereas other areas in Europe will suffer negative consequences in terms of reduced agricultural output, real income and welfare. The most vulnerable region is not made of Mediterranean countries, but rather Central Europe. Our results suggest that climate and land-use changes may exacerbate existing disparities within the EU. Therefore, appropriate adaptation strategies and a more flexible land-use are required to limit these negative consequences and possibly exploit the beneficial effects of climate change in some countries.

Suggested Citation

  • Martina Sartori & Davide Geneletti & Stefano Schiavo & Rocco Scolozzi, 2017. "To what extent will climate and land-use change affect EU-28 agriculture? A computable general equilibrium analysis," Working Papers 2017:19, Department of Economics, University of Venice "Ca' Foscari".
    • Handle: RePEc:ven:wpaper:2017:19
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Wolfram Schlenker & W. Michael Hanemann & Anthony C. Fisher, 2005. "Will U.S. Agriculture Really Benefit from Global Warming? Accounting for Irrigation in the Hedonic Approach," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 95(1), pages 395-406, March.
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    Cited by:

    1. Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mainar, Alfredo & Sartori, Martina, 2018. "Economy-wide impact of changing water availability in Senegal: an application of the JRC.DEMETRA CGE model," Conference papers 332934, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Agricultural productivity; climate change; land-use change; general equilibrium analysis;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • C68 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Mathematical Methods; Programming Models; Mathematical and Simulation Modeling - - - Computable General Equilibrium Models
    • Q11 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Agriculture - - - Aggregate Supply and Demand Analysis; Prices

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