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Economy-wide impact of changing water availability in Senegal: an application of the JRC.DEMETRA CGE model

Author

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  • Dudu, Hasan
  • Ferrari, Emanuele
  • Mainar, Alfredo
  • Sartori, Martina

Abstract

The aim of this research is assessing the structural economic consequences of changing water availability in Senegal, with a focus on the agricultural sector, under uncertain climate change and socio-economic scenarios as described in the Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs) and Share Socio Economic Pathway (SPPs), at the year 2030. In such a context, evaluating the effects of changing water availability for the different economic sectors requires a complex modelling approach, where separate models are integrated, possibly under shared and common assumptions. Indeed, the modelling framework must capture both the economic processes at play and the biophysical condition of the water and crop systems. In this study, we therefore follow an integrated and sequential modelling approach, where models coming from different disciplines and working at different time and spatial scales are soft-integrated. A number of studies propose a similar modelling integration, but focus on other countries and river basins (Robinson and Gueneau, 2013; Kahsay et al., 2017), or take a global perspective (Liu et al., 2017). We advance on this literature by coupling a dynamic computable general equilibrium (CGE) model, tailored on the economic features of developing countries, with separate water-hydrological and crop-biophysical models, where water is modelled explicitly with its links to the water cycle and agricultural production. Changes in key parameters of the CGE model reflecting changing in water availability are provided by the complementary models. The CGE model is calibrated on a self-developed 2014 Social Accounting Matrix for Senegal, disaggregated into the 14 Senegalese administrative divisions.

Suggested Citation

  • Dudu, Hasan & Ferrari, Emanuele & Mainar, Alfredo & Sartori, Martina, 2018. "Economy-wide impact of changing water availability in Senegal: an application of the JRC.DEMETRA CGE model," Conference papers 332934, Purdue University, Center for Global Trade Analysis, Global Trade Analysis Project.
    • Handle: RePEc:ags:pugtwp:332934
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