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From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030

  • Andy Sumner

    ()

    (King's International Development Institute, King's College London)

  • Peter Edward

    ()

    (Newcastle University Business School)

Registered author(s):

    Indonesia has achieved well-documented and drastic improvements in average incomes and in the reduction of poverty. Much research has discussed this progress. This paper adds to the literature with a new perspective. We discuss poverty in Indonesia using the international poverty lines ($1.25, $2 and we add $10/day). We generate historic estimates of poverty and make projections based on various growth and inequality trends. We find that Indonesia has the potential to attain high-income country status in a decade or so and at the same time, the potential to end $1.25/day and $2/day poverty but this would require favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may be accompanied by a large proportion of the population vulnerable to poverty for some considerable time to come, suggesting public policy priorities may need to balance insurance and risk management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy. We also find, in contrast to national poverty line analysis, that poverty by the various international poverty lines, is considerably more urbanised,with more than half the poor residing in urban areas currently and the urban proportion of total poverty likely to rise further in the years ahead.

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    File URL: http://lp3e.fe.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201310.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2013
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    Paper provided by Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University in its series Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) with number 201310.

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    Length: 54 pages
    Date of creation: May 2013
    Date of revision: Jun 2013
    Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201310
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    4. Arsenio Balisacan & Ernesto Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 329-351.
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    11. Pradhan, Menno & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno & Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Measurements of poverty in Indonesia - 1996, 1999, and beyond," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2438, The World Bank.
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    28. repec:dgr:rugggd:gd-93 is not listed on IDEAS
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