From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030
Indonesia has achieved well-documented and drastic improvements in average incomes and in the reduction of poverty. Much research has discussed this progress. This paper adds to the literature with a new perspective. We discuss poverty in Indonesia using the international poverty lines ($1.25, $2 and we add $10/day). We generate historic estimates of poverty and make projections based on various growth and inequality trends. We find that Indonesia has the potential to attain high-income country status in a decade or so and at the same time, the potential to end $1.25/day and $2/day poverty but this would require favourable changes in distribution. Looking ahead, the end of poverty in Indonesia may be accompanied by a large proportion of the population vulnerable to poverty for some considerable time to come, suggesting public policy priorities may need to balance insurance and risk management mechanisms with more ‘traditional’ poverty policy. We also find, in contrast to national poverty line analysis, that poverty by the various international poverty lines, is considerably more urbanised,with more than half the poor residing in urban areas currently and the urban proportion of total poverty likely to rise further in the years ahead.
|Date of creation:||May 2013|
|Date of revision:||Jun 2013|
|Contact details of provider:|| Postal: Jalan Cimandiri No.6, Bandung 40115|
Web page: http://ceds.fe.unpad.ac.id
More information through EDIRC
References listed on IDEAS
Please report citation or reference errors to , or , if you are the registered author of the cited work, log in to your RePEc Author Service profile, click on "citations" and make appropriate adjustments.:
- Neil McCulloch & C. Peter Timmer & Julian Weisbrod, 2007.
"Pathways Out of Poverty During an Economic Crisis: An Empirical Assessment of Rural Indonesia,"
115, Center for Global Development.
- Neil McCulloch & Julian Weisbrod & C. Peter Timmer, 2007. "Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis: An empirical assessment of rural Indonesia," Departmental Discussion Papers 131, University of Goettingen, Department of Economics.
- McCulloch, Neil & Weisbrod, Julian & Timmer, C. Peter, 2007. "Pathways out of poverty during an economic crisis : an empirical assessment of rural Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 4173, The World Bank.
- Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
- repec:dau:papers:123456789/1560 is not listed on IDEAS
- Alkire, Sabina & Santos, María Emma, 2011.
"Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries,"
Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Berlin 2011
3, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
- Sabina Alkire & Maria Emma Santos, 2010. "Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries," Human Development Research Papers (2009 to present) HDRP-2010-11, Human Development Report Office (HDRO), United Nations Development Programme (UNDP).
- Sabina Alkire and Maria Emma Santos, . "Acute Multidimensional Poverty: A New Index for Developing Countries," OPHI Working Papers ophiwp038, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
- Frankema, Ewout & Marks, Daan, 2007. "Was It Really â€œGrowth with Equityâ€ under Soeharto? A Theil Analysis of Indonesian Income Inequality, 1961-2002," GGDC Research Memorandum GD-93, Groningen Growth and Development Centre, University of Groningen.
- Asep Suryahadi & Daniel Suryadarma & Sudarno Sumarto, 2006. "The Effects of Location and Sectoral Components of Growth," Development Economics Working Papers 22550, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2002.
"The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology,"
World Bank Economic Review,
World Bank Group, vol. 16(3), pages 397-423, December.
- Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2001. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: "A Rapid Response Methodology"," William Davidson Institute Working Papers Series 387, William Davidson Institute at the University of Michigan.
- Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2001. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology," NBER Working Papers 8564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
- Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2001. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A 'Rapid Response' Methodology," Working Papers 482, Research Seminar in International Economics, University of Michigan.
- Sabina Alkire and James Foster, 2009.
"Counting and Multidimensional Poverty Measurement,"
OPHI Working Papers
ophiwp007, Queen Elizabeth House, University of Oxford.
- Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James, 2011. "Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7-8), pages 476-487, August.
- Alkire, Sabina & Foster, James, 2011. "Counting and multidimensional poverty measurement," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 95(7), pages 476-487.
- Takahiro Akita, 2003. "Decomposing regional income inequality in China and Indonesia using two-stage nested Theil decomposition method," The Annals of Regional Science, Springer;Western Regional Science Association, vol. 37(1), pages 55-77, 02.
- Daniel Suryadarma & Wenefrida Widyanti & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2006. "From Access to Income : Regional and Ethnic Inequality in Indonesia," Development Economics Working Papers 22547, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Pradhan, Menno, et al, 2001. "Eating Like Which "Joneses?" An Iterative Solution to the Choice of a Poverty Line "Reference Group."," Review of Income and Wealth, International Association for Research in Income and Wealth, vol. 47(4), pages 473-87, December.
- Takahiro Akita & Puji Agus Kurniawan & Sachiko Miyata, 2009.
"Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bi-dimensional Decomposition Analysis,"
EMS_2009_13, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
- Takahiro Akita & Puji Agus Kurniawan & Sachiko Miyata, 2011. "Structural Changes and Regional Income Inequality in Indonesia: A Bidimensional Decomposition Analysis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 25(1), pages 55-77, 03.
- Andrew Leigh & Pierre van der Eng, 2007.
"Top Incomes in Indonesia, 1920-2004,"
CEPR Discussion Papers
549, Centre for Economic Policy Research, Research School of Economics, Australian National University.
- Leigh, Andrew & van der Eng, Pierre, 2009. "Inequality in Indonesia: What can we learn from top incomes?," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 93(1-2), pages 209-212, February.
- Martin Ravallion & Michael Lokshin, 2007. "Lasting Impacts of Indonesiaâ€™s Financial Crisis," Economic Development and Cultural Change, University of Chicago Press, vol. 56, pages 27-56.
- Akita, Takahiro & Miyata, Sachiko, 2007. "Urbanization, educational expansion, and expenditures inequality in Indonesia in 1996, 1999, and 2002:," IFPRI discussion papers 728, International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI).
- Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Lant Pritchett, 2003. "Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, 09.
- Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, 03.
- Arsenio Balisacan & Ernesto Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 329-351.
- Sudarno Sumarto & Daniel Suryadarma & Asep Suryahadi, 2006.
"Predicting Consumption Poverty Using Non-consumption Indicators : Experiments Using Indonesian Data,"
Development Economics Working Papers
22542, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
- Sudarno Sumarto & Daniel Suryadarma & Asep Suryahadi, 2007. "Predicting Consumption Poverty using Non-Consumption Indicators: Experiments using Indonesian Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 81(3), pages 543-578, May.
- C. Peter Timmer, 2004.
"The road to pro-poor growth: the Indonesian experience in regional perspective,"
Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies,
Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(2), pages 177-207.
- Peter Timmer, 2004. "The Road to Pro-Poor Growth: The Indonesian Experience in Regional Perspective," Working Papers 38, Center for Global Development.
- Pradhan, Menno & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno & Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Measurements of poverty in Indonesia - 1996, 1999, and beyond," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2438, The World Bank.
- Lisa A. Cameron, 2001.
"The Impact of the Indonesian Financial Crisis on Children: An analysis using the 100 villages data,"
inwopa01/10, Innocenti Working Papers.
- Lisa Cameron, 2001. "The Impact Of The Indonesian Financial Crisis On Children: An Analysis Using The 100 Villages Data," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 37(1), pages 43-64.
- Hal Hill & RBudy Resosudarmo & Yogi Vidyattama, 2008.
"Indonesia's Changing Economic Geography,"
Departmental Working Papers
2008-02, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
- Hal Hill & Budy Resosudarmo & Yogi Vidyattama, 2007. "Indonesia’s Changing Economic Geography," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200713, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Nov 2007.
- Anne Booth, 2000. "Poverty and Inequality in The Soeharto Era: An Assessment," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(1), pages 73-104.
- Gary Fields & Paul Cichello & Samuel Freije & Marta Menéndez & David Newhouse, 2003. "For Richer or for Poorer? Evidence from Indonesia, South Africa, Spain, and Venezuela," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 1(1), pages 67-99, April.
- Bas van Leeuwen & Peter Foldvari, 2012. "The development of inequality and poverty in Indonesia, 1932-1999," Working Papers 0026, Utrecht University, Centre for Global Economic History.
- Armida Alisjahbana & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2003. "Poverty Dynamics In Indonesia: Panel Data Evidence," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200303, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2003.
- van der Eng, Pierre, 2009. "Growth and Inequality: The Case of Indonesia, 1960-1997," MPRA Paper 12725, University Library of Munich, Germany.
- Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114.
- Wenefrida Widyanti & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Athia Yumna, 2009. "The Relationship between Chronic Poverty and Household Dynamics : Evidence from Indonesia," Microeconomics Working Papers 22554, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201310. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.
For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: (Arief Anshory Yusuf)
If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.
If references are entirely missing, you can add them using this form.
If the full references list an item that is present in RePEc, but the system did not link to it, you can help with this form.
If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.
Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.