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Lasting local impacts of an economywide crisis

  • Ravallion, Martin
  • Lokshin, Michael

The immediate welfare costs of an economywide crisis can be high, but are there also lasting impacts? And are they greater in some geographic areas than others? The authors study Indonesia’s severe financial crisis of 1998. They use 10 national surveys spanning 1993–2002, each covering 200,000 randomly sampled households, to estimate the impacts on mean consumption and the incidence of poverty across each of 260 districts. Counterfactual analyses indicate geographically diverse impacts years after the crisis. Proportionate impacts on the poverty rate were greater in initially better off and less unequal areas. In the aggregate, a large share - possibly the majority - of those Indonesians who were still poor in 2002 would not have been so without the 1998 crisis.

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Paper provided by The World Bank in its series Policy Research Working Paper Series with number 3503.

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Date of creation: 01 Feb 2005
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Handle: RePEc:wbk:wbrwps:3503
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  1. Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114.
  2. Ravallion, Martin & Bidani, Benu, 1994. "How Robust Is a Poverty Profile?," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 8(1), pages 75-102, January.
  3. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Lant Pritchett, 2003. "Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, 09.
  4. Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2001. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology," NBER Working Papers 8564, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  5. Thomas, Duncan & Beegle, Kathleen & Frankenberg, Elizabeth & Sikoki, Bondan & Strauss, John & Teruel, Graciela, 2004. "Education in a crisis," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(1), pages 53-85, June.
  6. Stefan Dercon, 2003. "Growth and Shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," CSAE Working Paper Series 2003-12, Centre for the Study of African Economies, University of Oxford.
  7. Shaohua Chen & Martin Ravallion, 2004. "How Have the World's Poorest Fared since the Early 1980s?," World Bank Research Observer, World Bank Group, vol. 19(2), pages 141-169.
  8. Ravallion, Martin, 1997. "Can high-inequality developing countries escape absolute poverty?," Policy Research Working Paper Series 1775, The World Bank.
  9. Elizabeth Frankenberg & James P. Smith & Duncan Thomas, 2004. "Economic Shocks, Wealth and Welfare," Labor and Demography 0403030, EconWPA.
  10. Lokshin Michael & Ravallion Martin, 2004. "Household Income Dynamics in Two Transition Economies," Studies in Nonlinear Dynamics & Econometrics, De Gruyter, vol. 8(3), pages 1-33, September.
  11. Pradhan, Menno & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno & Pritchett, Lant, 2000. "Measurements of poverty in Indonesia - 1996, 1999, and beyond," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2438, The World Bank.
  12. Arsenio Balisacan & Ernesto Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 329-351.
  13. Banerjee, Abhijit V & Newman, Andrew F, 1994. "Poverty, Incentives, and Development," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 84(2), pages 211-15, May.
  14. Jyotsna Jalan & Martin Ravallion, 1998. "Geographic Poverty Traps?," Boston University - Institute for Economic Development 86, Boston University, Institute for Economic Development.
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