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Lasting Impacts of Indonesia’s Financial Crisis

  • Martin Ravallion
  • Michael Lokshin

We study the poverty impacts over time and space of Indonesia’s severe economy-wide crisis of 1998, using 10 large national surveys spanning 1993–2002. On allowing for shifts in relative prices stemming from the crisis, we find a sharp but geographically uneven increase in the poverty rate in 1998, reflecting both the unevenness in the extent of the economic contraction and the differing initial conditions at the local level. Our counterfactual analyses indicate geographically diverse recovery rates 4 years later. Proportionate impacts on the poverty rate in both 1998 and 2002 were greater in initially better-off and less unequal districts. In the aggregate, a large share—possibly half—of the poverty count in 2002 is attributed to the 1998 crisis.

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File URL: http://dx.doi.org/10.1086/520558
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Article provided by University of Chicago Press in its journal Economic Development and Cultural Change.

Volume (Year): 56 (2007)
Issue (Month): ()
Pages: 27-56

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Handle: RePEc:ucp:ecdecc:v:56:y:2007:p:27-56
DOI: 10.1086/520558
Contact details of provider: Web page: http://www.journals.uchicago.edu/EDCC/

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  1. Dercon, Stefan, 2004. "Growth and shocks: evidence from rural Ethiopia," Journal of Development Economics, Elsevier, vol. 74(2), pages 309-329, August.
  2. Olivier Frecaut, 2004. "Indonesia's banking crisis: a new perspective on $50 billion of losses," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 37-57.
  3. Frankenberg, E. & Thomas, D. & Beegle, K., 1999. "The Real Costs of Indonesia's Economic Crisis: Preliminary Findings from the Indonesia Family Life Surveys," Papers 99-04, RAND - Labor and Population Program.
  4. Jed Friedman & James Levinsohn, 2002. "The Distributional Impacts of Indonesia's Financial Crisis on Household Welfare: A "Rapid Response" Methodology," World Bank Economic Review, World Bank Group, vol. 16(3), pages 397-423, December.
  5. Ross McLeod, 2004. "Dealing with bank system failure: Indonesia, 1997-2003," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 40(1), pages 95-116.
  6. Arsenio Balisacan & Ernesto Pernia & Abuzar Asra, 2003. "Revisiting growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia: what do subnational data show?," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 39(3), pages 329-351.
  7. Radelet Steven & Sachs Jeffrey & Lee Jong-Wha, 2001. "The Determinants and Prospects of Economic Growth in Asia," International Economic Journal, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 15(3), pages 1-29.
  8. Tommy Bengtsson & Cameron Campbell & James Z. Lee, 2004. "Life Under Pressure: Mortality and Living Standards in Europe and Asia, 1700-1900," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262025515, March.
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