IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/unp/wpaper/201406.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Who are likely to be the future poor in Indonesia? Evidence on primary school non-completion from six rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, 1991-2012

Author

Listed:
  • Andy Sumner

    (King's International Development Institute, King's College London)

Abstract

The non-completion of primary school and educational attainment in general in Indonesia has been associated with an increased likelihood of being or remaining poor. In light of this, this paper considers the evolution of primary school non-completion using six rounds of the Indonesia Demographic and Health Survey covering the period 1991–2012. The paper presents new, consistent estimates of the evolution of the incidence of and total composition of, primary education non-completion in Indonesia over two decades by the characteristics of household heads. The paper argues that although such deprivations remain concentrated among households in rural areas and in households with heads not in work or employed in agriculture, counter-intuitively, as deprivations decline,there are growing and sizable proportions in urban and non-agriculture headed households meaning a policy focus largely on the ‘traditional’ characteristics of deprived households might risk missing substantial proportions of the remaining and likely future poor in Indonesia.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy Sumner, 2014. "Who are likely to be the future poor in Indonesia? Evidence on primary school non-completion from six rounds of the Demographic and Health Survey, 1991-2012," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201406, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised May 2014.
    • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201406
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://ceds.feb.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201406.pdf
    File Function: First version, 2014
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Teguh Dartanto & Nurkholis, 2013. "The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 61-84, April.
    2. Streeten, Paul, 1984. "Basic needs: Some unsettled questions," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 12(9), pages 973-978, September.
    3. Esther Duflo, 2001. "Schooling and Labor Market Consequences of School Construction in Indonesia: Evidence from an Unusual Policy Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(4), pages 795-813, September.
    4. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1560 is not listed on IDEAS
    5. Grimm, Michael & Gräb, Johannes, 2007. "Robust Multiperiod Poverty Comparisons," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 8, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    6. Armida Alisjahbana & Arief Anshory Yusuf, 2003. "Poverty Dynamics In Indonesia: Panel Data Evidence," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 200303, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2003.
    7. Riyana Miranti & Yogi Vidyattama & Erick Hansnata & Rebecca Cassells & Alan Duncan, 2013. "Trends in Poverty and Inequality in Decentralising Indonesia," OECD Social, Employment and Migration Working Papers 148, OECD Publishing.
    8. Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114.
    9. Miles Corak, 2006. "Do Poor Children Become Poor Adults? Lessons from a Cross-Country Comparison of Generational Earnings Mobility," Research on Economic Inequality, in: Dynamics of Inequality and Poverty, pages 143-188, Emerald Group Publishing Limited.
    10. Yus Medina Pakpahan & Daniel Suryadarma & Asep Suryahadi, "undated". "Destined for Destitution: Intergenerational Poverty Persistence in Indonesia," Working Papers 338, Publications Department.
    11. Asep Suryahadi & Daniel Suryadarma & Sudarno Sumarto, 2006. "The Effects of Location and Sectoral Components of Growth," Development Economics Working Papers 22550, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    12. Andrew M. Fischer, 2010. "Towards Genuine Universalism within Contemporary Development Policy," IDS Bulletin, Blackwell Publishing, vol. 41(1), pages 36-44, January.
    13. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, 2013. "From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201310, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2013.
    14. Hicks, Norman & Streeten, Paul, 1979. "Indicators of development: The search for a basic needs yardstick," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 7(6), pages 567-580, June.
    15. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Lant Pritchett, 2003. "Evolution of Poverty During the Crisis in Indonesia," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(3), pages 221-241, September.
    16. Wenefrida Dwi Widyanti & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Athia Yumna, "undated". "The Relationship between Chronic Poverty and Household Dynamics: Evidence from Indonesia," Working Papers 339, Publications Department.
    17. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
    18. Mohamad Fahmi & Ben Satriatna, 2013. "Development in Education Sector: Are the Poor Catching Up?," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201315, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2013.
    19. Sudarno Sumarto & Daniel Suryadarma & Asep Suryahadi, 2007. "Predicting Consumption Poverty using Non-Consumption Indicators: Experiments using Indonesian Data," Social Indicators Research: An International and Interdisciplinary Journal for Quality-of-Life Measurement, Springer, vol. 81(3), pages 543-578, May.
    20. Gary Fields & Paul Cichello & Samuel Freije & Marta Menéndez & David Newhouse, 2003. "For Richer or for Poorer? Evidence from Indonesia, South Africa, Spain, and Venezuela," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 1(1), pages 67-99, April.
    21. World Bank, 2014. "World Development Indicators 2014," World Bank Publications - Books, The World Bank Group, number 18237, December.
    22. Asep Suryahadi & Gracia Hadiwidjaja & Sudarno Sumarto, 2012. "Economic growth and poverty reduction in Indonesia before and after the asian financial crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 48(2), pages 209-227, August.
    23. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, March.
    24. Kar‐yiu Wong & Richard Y. K. Ho, 2002. "The Asian Crisis, 1997," Review of International Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 10(1), pages 1-1, February.
    25. Priebe, Jan & Rudolf, Robert & Klasen, Stephan & Weisbrod, Julian, 2009. "Rural Income Dynamics in Post-Crisis Indonesia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 29, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andy Sumner & Peter Edward, 2013. "From Low Income, High Poverty to High-Income, No Poverty? An Optimistic View of the Long-Run Evolution of Poverty in Indonesia By International Poverty Lines, 1984–2030," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201310, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jun 2013.
    2. Andy Sumner & Arief Anshory Yusuf & Yangki Imade Suara, 2014. "The Prospects of the Poor: A Set of Poverty Measures Based on the Probability of Remaining Poor (or Not) in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201410, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2014.
    3. Andy Sumner, 2013. "The Evolution Of Education And Health Poverty During Economic Development:The Case Of Indonesia, 1991–2007," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201311, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised May 2013.
    4. Takahiro Akita & Ni Made Inna Dariwardani, 2013. "Chronic and Transient Poverty in Indonesia: A Spatial Perspective with the 2008-2010 Susenas Panel Data," Working Papers EMS_2013_19, Research Institute, International University of Japan.
    5. Purwono, Rudi & Wardana, Wahyu Wisnu & Haryanto, Tri & Khoerul Mubin, M., 2021. "Poverty dynamics in Indonesia: empirical evidence from three main approaches," World Development Perspectives, Elsevier, vol. 23(C).
    6. Mai, Tung & Mahadevan, Renuka, 2016. "A research note on the poverty dynamics and cost of poverty inequality: Case study of Indonesia," Economic Analysis and Policy, Elsevier, vol. 49(C), pages 100-107.
    7. Dartanto, Teguh & Otsubo, Shigeru, 2016. "Intrageneration Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia: Households’ Welfare Mobility Before, During, and After the Asian Financial Crisis," Working Papers 117, JICA Research Institute.
    8. Adama BAH, 2013. "Estimating Vulnerability to Poverty using Panel data: Evidence from Indonesia," Working Papers 201325, CERDI.
    9. Agus Surachman & Hartoyo, 2015. "Parental Investment and Poverty Dynamics in West Java, Indonesia," Journal of Family and Economic Issues, Springer, vol. 36(3), pages 340-352, September.
    10. KAYA Halil Dincer, 2018. "The Global Crisis And Poverty," Studies in Business and Economics, Lucian Blaga University of Sibiu, Faculty of Economic Sciences, vol. 13(3), pages 63-73, December.
    11. Adama Bah, 2015. "Estimating Vulnerability to Poverty using Panel data: Evidence from Indonesia," CERDI Working papers halshs-00936199, HAL.
    12. Teguh Dartanto & Nurkholis, 2013. "The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 61-84, April.
    13. Teguh, Dartanto & Nurkholis, Nurkholis, 2011. "Finding out of the Determinants of Poverty Dynamics in Indonesia: Evidence from Panel Data," MPRA Paper 41185, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    14. Andrew Sumner, 2010. "Economic Well-being and Non-economic Well-being: A Review of the Meaning and Measurement of Poverty," Working Papers id:3268, eSocialSciences.
    15. Mduduzi Biyase & Talent Zwane, 2018. "An Empirical Analysis Of The Determinants Of Poverty And Household Welfare In South Africa," Journal of Developing Areas, Tennessee State University, College of Business, vol. 52(1), pages 115-130, January-M.
    16. Daniel Suryadarma & Rima Prama Artha & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, "undated". "A Reassessment of Inequality and Its Role in Poverty Reduction in Indonesia," Working Papers 364, Publications Department.
    17. Andy Sumner, 2004. "Economic Well-being and Non-economic Well-being: A Review of the Meaning and Measurement of Poverty," WIDER Working Paper Series RP2004-30, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).
    18. Pritchett, Lant & Sumarto, Sudarno & Suryahadi, Asep, 2001. "Targeted Programs in an Economic Crisis: Empirical Findings from Indonesia’s Experience," MPRA Paper 58727, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    19. Wonhyung Lee & Nurul Widyaningrum, 2019. "Multidimensional access to financial services: Insights from Indonesia," Progress in Development Studies, , vol. 19(1), pages 21-35, January.
    20. Emmanuel Skoufias & Yasuhiro Kawasoe & Eric Strobl & Pablo Acosta, 2020. "Identifying the Vulnerable to Poverty from Natural Disasters: The Case of Typhoons in the Philippines," Economics of Disasters and Climate Change, Springer, vol. 4(1), pages 45-82, April.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Indonesia; deprivation; education; inequality; economic development;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I32 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Welfare, Well-Being, and Poverty - - - Measurement and Analysis of Poverty
    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201406. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Arief Anshory Yusuf (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/lppadid.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.