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The Prospects of the Poor: A Set of Poverty Measures Based on the Probability of Remaining Poor (or Not) in Indonesia

Author

Listed:
  • Andy Sumner

    () (King's International Development Institute, King's College London)

  • Arief Anshory Yusuf

    () (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

  • Yangki Imade Suara

    () (Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University)

Abstract

This paper proposes and operationalizes an approach to measuring poverty based on the probability of remaining poor or not. The paper does the following: we review the global and Indonesia literature on poverty dynamics; we propose a set of poverty lines based on the prospects for the poor using the Indonesian Family Life Survey for 2000–2007; we discuss determinants of poverty at the various poverty lines and consider the poverty probability trends in Indonesia for the period 2000–2013 using the national socio-economic survey, the Susenas.

Suggested Citation

  • Andy Sumner & Arief Anshory Yusuf & Yangki Imade Suara, 2014. "The Prospects of the Poor: A Set of Poverty Measures Based on the Probability of Remaining Poor (or Not) in Indonesia," Working Papers in Economics and Development Studies (WoPEDS) 201410, Department of Economics, Padjadjaran University, revised Jul 2014.
  • Handle: RePEc:unp:wpaper:201410
    as

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    File URL: http://ceds.feb.unpad.ac.id/wopeds/201410.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Teguh Dartanto & Nurkholis, 2013. "The determinants of poverty dynamics in Indonesia: evidence from panel data," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 49(1), pages 61-84, April.
    2. Martin Ravallion & Shaohua Chen, 2013. "A Proposal for Truly Global Poverty Measures," Global Policy, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 4(3), pages 258-265, September.
    3. repec:dau:papers:123456789/1560 is not listed on IDEAS
    4. Luis López-Calva & Eduardo Ortiz-Juarez, 2014. "A vulnerability approach to the definition of the middle class," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 12(1), pages 23-47, March.
    5. Grimm, Michael & Gräb, Johannes, 2007. "Robust Multiperiod Poverty Comparisons," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Göttingen 2007 8, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
    6. James Foster & Joel Greer & Erik Thorbecke, 2010. "The Foster–Greer–Thorbecke (FGT) poverty measures: 25 years later," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 8(4), pages 491-524, December.
    7. James E. Foster & Joel Greer & Erik Thorbecke, 2010. "The Foster-Greer-Thorbecke (FGT) Poverty Measures: Twenty-Five Years Later," Working Papers 2010-14, The George Washington University, Institute for International Economic Policy.
    8. Emmanuel Skoufias & Asep Suryahadi, 2000. "Changes in Household Welfare, Poverty and Inequality During the Crisis," Bulletin of Indonesian Economic Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(2), pages 97-114.
    9. Yus Medina Pakpahan & Daniel Suryadarma & Asep Suryahadi, 2009. "Destined for Destitution : Intergenerational Poverty Persistence in Indonesia," Development Economics Working Papers 23041, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    10. Wood, Geof, 2003. "Staying Secure, Staying Poor: The "Faustian Bargain"," World Development, Elsevier, vol. 31(3), pages 455-471, March.
    11. Stefan Dercon & Joseph S. Shapiro, 2007. "Moving On, Staying Behind, Getting Lost: Lessons on poverty mobility from longitudinal data," Economics Series Working Papers GPRG-WPS-075, University of Oxford, Department of Economics.
    12. Neil McCulloch & Bob Baulch, 2000. "Simulating the impact of policy upon chronic and transitory poverty in rural Pakistan," Journal of Development Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 36(6), pages 100-130.
    13. Wenefrida Widyanti & Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto & Athia Yumna, 2009. "The Relationship between Chronic Poverty and Household Dynamics : Evidence from Indonesia," Microeconomics Working Papers 22554, East Asian Bureau of Economic Research.
    14. Pritchett, Lant & Suryahadi, Asep & Sumarto, Sudarno, 2000. "Quantifying vulnerability to poverty - a proposed measure, applied to Indonesia," Policy Research Working Paper Series 2437, The World Bank.
    15. Gary Fields & Paul Cichello & Samuel Freije & Marta Menéndez & David Newhouse, 2003. "For Richer or for Poorer? Evidence from Indonesia, South Africa, Spain, and Venezuela," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 1(1), pages 67-99, April.
    16. Asep Suryahadi & Sudarno Sumarto, 2003. "Poverty and Vulnerability in Indonesia Before and After the Economic Crisis," Asian Economic Journal, East Asian Economic Association, vol. 17(1), pages 45-64, March.
    17. Priebe, Jan & Rudolf, Robert & Klasen, Stephan & Weisbrod, Julian, 2009. "Rural Income Dynamics in Post-Crisis Indonesia," Proceedings of the German Development Economics Conference, Frankfurt a.M. 2009 29, Verein für Socialpolitik, Research Committee Development Economics.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Arief Anshory Yusuf & Andy Sumner, 2017. "Multidimensional poverty in Indonesia: How inclusive has economic growth been?," Departmental Working Papers 2017-09, The Australian National University, Arndt-Corden Department of Economics.
    2. Peter Edward & Andy Sumner, 2015. "New estimates of global poverty and inequality: How much difference do price data," Working Papers 365, ECINEQ, Society for the Study of Economic Inequality.
    3. Andy Sumner, 2016. "The world's two new middles Growth, precarity, structural change, and the limitations of the special case," WIDER Working Paper Series 034, World Institute for Development Economic Research (UNU-WIDER).

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Poverty;

    JEL classification:

    • D63 - Microeconomics - - Welfare Economics - - - Equity, Justice, Inequality, and Other Normative Criteria and Measurement

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