Human Capital under Climate Stress: Evidence from Extreme Shocks

This chapter synthesizes global evidence on how climate-related and disaster shocks affect human capital formation through educational attainment, learning outcomes, child health, and long-run economic mobility. Drawing on quasi-experimental and experimental evidence from low-, middle-, and high-income countries, the review documents substantial heterogeneity in impacts driven by shock type, timing, baseline poverty, and institutional capacity. Short-run disruptions to school attendance and health are well-documented, though evidence on learning losses and long-run earnings effects remains considerably thinner and warrants urgent attention. Key transmission mechanisms are mapped—including household budget constraints, child labor responses, school infrastructure damage, disease burden, and fetal and early-life programming—alongside a critical evaluation of causal identification strategies and their limitations. Policy evidence indicates that well-designed social protection programs, resilient school infrastructure, early warning systems, and education continuity planning can mitigate impacts, though rigorous evaluations remain scarce and external validity concerns persist. Five priority research gaps are identified: measuring and mitigating learning losses; understanding cumulative effects of repeated shocks; evaluating cost-effective adaptation strategies; linking childhood exposure to long-run labor outcomes; and studying behavioral adaptation to increasing climate risk.