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The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: the Great Fire of 1910

Author

Listed:
  • Sarah Meier

    (University of Exeter)

  • Eric Strobl

    (University of Bern
    University of Birmingham)

  • Robert J. R. Elliott

    (University of Birmingham)

Abstract

The Great Fire of 1910 in the northwestern United States burnt more than 1.2 million hectares in just two days and stands as one of the largest wildfires ever recorded. While it is known for having led to the introduction of a rigorous fire suppression regime that lasted for much of the twentieth century, it also generated a considerable amount of smoke far beyond the burnt areas that is likely to have impacted the health of those exposed. This paper examines the short- and long-term impact of this fire-sourced smoke pollution on children, combining historical data with smoke emission and dispersion modelling. The econometric results indicate a 119% increase in excess mortality during the week of the fire and a decrease of 4–14% in later-life socioeconomic status scores 20 and 30 years after the event. This research offers novel insights into wildfire smoke repercussions on health and long-run human capital formation in a setting where avoidance behaviour was minimal.

Suggested Citation

  • Sarah Meier & Eric Strobl & Robert J. R. Elliott, 2025. "The impact of wildfire smoke exposure on excess mortality and later-life socioeconomic outcomes: the Great Fire of 1910," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 19(2), pages 279-342, May.
  • Handle: RePEc:spr:cliomt:v:19:y:2025:i:2:d:10.1007_s11698-024-00297-0
    DOI: 10.1007/s11698-024-00297-0
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Wildfire; Air pollution; Health effects; Human capital; Socioeconomic outcomes;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • N3 - Economic History - - Labor and Consumers, Demography, Education, Health, Welfare, Income, Wealth, Religion, and Philanthropy
    • N5 - Economic History - - Agriculture, Natural Resources, Environment and Extractive Industries
    • Q5 - Agricultural and Natural Resource Economics; Environmental and Ecological Economics - - Environmental Economics

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