IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ucl/cepeow/25-10.html

Estimating heterogeneous returns to college by cognitive and non-cognitive ability

Author

Listed:
  • Oliver Cassagneau-Francis

    (UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities)

Abstract

Recent work has highlighted the significant variation in returns to higher education across individuals. I develop a novel methodology --- exploiting recent advances in the identification of mixture models --- which groups individuals according to their prior ability and estimates the wage returns to a university degree by group, and show that the model is non-parametrically identified. Applying the method to data from a UK cohort study, the findings reflect recent evidence that skills and ability are multidimensional. The flexible model allows the returns to university to vary across the (multi-dimensional) ability distribution, a flexibility missing from commonly used additive models, but which I show is empirically important. Returns are generally increasing in ability for both men and women, but vary non-monotonically across the ability distribution.

Suggested Citation

  • Oliver Cassagneau-Francis, 2025. "Estimating heterogeneous returns to college by cognitive and non-cognitive ability," CEPEO Working Paper Series 25-10, UCL Centre for Education Policy and Equalising Opportunities, revised Sep 2025.
  • Handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-10
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: https://repec-cepeo.ucl.ac.uk/cepeow/cepeowp25-10.pdf
    File Function: Initial version, 2025
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Robert J. Gary‐Bobo & Marion Goussé & Jean‐Marc Robin, 2016. "Grade retention and unobserved heterogeneity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 781-820, November.
    2. Jeremy P. Smith & Robin A. Naylor, 2001. "Dropping out of university: A statistical analysis of the probability of withdrawal for UK university students," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 164(2), pages 389-405.
    3. Bonhomme, Stphane & Robin, Jean-Marc, 2009. "Consistent noisy independent component analysis," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 149(1), pages 12-25, April.
    4. James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2005. "Structural Equations, Treatment Effects, and Econometric Policy Evaluation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 73(3), pages 669-738, May.
    5. Stéphane Bonhomme & Elena Manresa, 2015. "Grouped Patterns of Heterogeneity in Panel Data," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 83(3), pages 1147-1184, May.
    6. Blundell, Richard, et al, 2000. "The Returns to Higher Education in Britain: Evidence from a British Cohort," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(461), pages 82-99, February.
    7. Petra E. Todd & Weilong Zhang, 2020. "A dynamic model of personality, schooling, and occupational choice," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 11(1), pages 231-275, January.
    8. Flavio Cunha & James J. Heckman & Susanne M. Schennach, 2010. "Estimating the Technology of Cognitive and Noncognitive Skill Formation," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(3), pages 883-931, May.
    9. Christopher R. Taber, 2001. "The Rising College Premium in the Eighties: Return to College or Return to Unobserved Ability?," The Review of Economic Studies, Review of Economic Studies Ltd, vol. 68(3), pages 665-691.
    10. repec:spo:wpecon:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j01si09a2 is not listed on IDEAS
    11. Imbens, Guido W & Angrist, Joshua D, 1994. "Identification and Estimation of Local Average Treatment Effects," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 62(2), pages 467-475, March.
    12. Robert J. Gary‐Bobo & Marion Goussé & Jean‐Marc Robin, 2016. "Grade retention and unobserved heterogeneity," Quantitative Economics, Econometric Society, vol. 7(3), pages 781-820, November.
    13. Cawley, John & Heckman, James & Vytlacil, Edward, 2001. "Three observations on wages and measured cognitive ability," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(4), pages 419-442, September.
    14. Jean-Marc Robin & Stéphane Bonhomme, 2009. "Consistent Noisy Independent Component Analysis," SciencePo Working papers hal-01022621, HAL.
    15. Robert Gary-Bobo & Jean-Marc Robin & Marion Goussé, 2016. "Grade Retention and Unobserved Heterogeneity," Post-Print hal-03572141, HAL.
    16. Gary S. Becker, 1964. "Human Capital: A Theoretical and Empirical Analysis with Special Reference to Education, First Edition," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number beck-5, December.
    17. Richard Blundell & Lorraine Dearden & Barbara Sianesi, 2005. "Evaluating the effect of education on earnings: models, methods and results from the National Child Development Survey," Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, Royal Statistical Society, vol. 168(3), pages 473-512, July.
    18. Delaney, Liam & Harmon, Colm & Ryan, Martin, 2013. "The role of noncognitive traits in undergraduate study behaviours," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 32(C), pages 181-195.
    19. Orley Ashenfelter & Cecilia Rouse, 1998. "Income, Schooling, and Ability: Evidence from a New Sample of Identical Twins," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, President and Fellows of Harvard College, vol. 113(1), pages 253-284.
    20. repec:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/eu4vqp9ompqllr09j01si09a2 is not listed on IDEAS
    21. Jacob Mincer, 1958. "Investment in Human Capital and Personal Income Distribution," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 66(4), pages 281-281.
    22. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward Vytlacil, 2010. "Evaluating Marginal Policy Changes and the Average Effect of Treatment for Individuals at the Margin," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(1), pages 377-394, January.
    23. Adrian O’Hagan & Thomas Brendan Murphy & Luca Scrucca & Isobel Claire Gormley, 2019. "Investigation of parameter uncertainty in clustering using a Gaussian mixture model via jackknife, bootstrap and weighted likelihood bootstrap," Computational Statistics, Springer, vol. 34(4), pages 1779-1813, December.
    24. Stephane Bonhomme, 2021. "Teams: Heterogeneity, Sorting, and Complementarity," Papers 2102.01802, arXiv.org.
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Oliver Cassagneau-Francis, 2022. "Revisiting the Returns to Higher Education: Heterogeneity by Cognitive and Non-Cognitive Abilities," Sciences Po Economics Publications (main) hal-04067399, HAL.
    2. Hugo Reis & Emilio Borghesan, 2022. "Learning Through Repetition? A Dynamic Evaluation of Grade Retention in Portugal," Working Papers w202220, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    3. Meghir, Costas & Rivkin, Steven, 2011. "Econometric Methods for Research in Education," Handbook of the Economics of Education, in: Erik Hanushek & Stephen Machin & Ludger Woessmann (ed.), Handbook of the Economics of Education, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 1, pages 1-87, Elsevier.
    4. Heckman, James J. & Humphries, John Eric & Veramendi, Gregory, 2016. "Dynamic treatment effects," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 191(2), pages 276-292.
    5. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman & Edward J. Vytlacil, 2011. "Estimating Marginal Returns to Education," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 101(6), pages 2754-2781, October.
    6. Oliver Cassagneau-Francis & Robert Gary-Bobo & Julie Pernaudet & Jean-Marc Robin, 2022. "A Nonparametric Finite Mixture Approach to Difference-in-Difference Estimation, with an Application to On-the-job Training and Wages," Working Papers hal-03869547, HAL.
    7. Mourifié, Ismael & Wan, Yuanyuan, 2025. "Layered policy analysis in program evaluation using the marginal treatment effect," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 251(C).
    8. Zhang, Shiying & Huang, Ao, 2022. "The long-term effects of automatic grade promotion on child development," China Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 74(C).
    9. Ge, Suqin, 2013. "Estimating the returns to schooling: Implications from a dynamic discrete choice model," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 20(C), pages 92-105.
    10. Olivier De Groote, 2025. "Dynamic Effort Choice in High School: Costs and Benefits of an Academic Track," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 43(2), pages 467-502.
    11. Schennach, Susanne M., 2020. "Mismeasured and unobserved variables," Handbook of Econometrics, in: Steven N. Durlauf & Lars Peter Hansen & James J. Heckman & Rosa L. Matzkin (ed.), Handbook of Econometrics, edition 1, volume 7, chapter 0, pages 487-565, Elsevier.
    12. Rojas, Eugenio & Sánchez, Rafael & Villena, Mauricio G., 2016. "Credit constraints in higher education in a context of unobserved heterogeneity," Economics of Education Review, Elsevier, vol. 52(C), pages 225-250.
    13. Sokbae Lee & Bernard Salanié, 2018. "Identifying Effects of Multivalued Treatments," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 86(6), pages 1939-1963, November.
    14. Christian Belzil, 2008. "Testing the Specification of the Mincer Wage Equation," Annals of Economics and Statistics, GENES, issue 91-92, pages 427-451.
    15. Schennach, Susanne & White, Halbert & Chalak, Karim, 2012. "Local indirect least squares and average marginal effects in nonseparable structural systems," Journal of Econometrics, Elsevier, vol. 166(2), pages 282-302.
    16. Moffitt, Robert A. & Zahn, Matthew V., 2022. "The Marginal Labor Supply Disincentives of Welfare: Evidence from Administrative Barriers to Participation," Economics Working Paper Archive 66674, The Johns Hopkins University,Department of Economics.
    17. Pedro Carneiro & Michael Lokshin & Nithin Umapathi, 2017. "Average and Marginal Returns to Upper Secondary Schooling in Indonesia," Journal of Applied Econometrics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 32(1), pages 16-36, January.
    18. Hans‐Peter Y. Qvist & Anders Holm & Martin D. Munk, 2021. "Demand and Supply Effects and Returns to College Education: Evidence from a Natural Experiment with Engineers in Denmark," Scandinavian Journal of Economics, Wiley Blackwell, vol. 123(2), pages 676-704, April.
    19. Heckman, James J. & Humphries, John Eric & Veramendi, Gregory & Urzua, Sergio, 2014. "Education, Health and Wages," IZA Discussion Papers 8027, IZA Network @ LISER.
    20. Pedro Carneiro & James J. Heckman, 2002. "The Evidence on Credit Constraints in Post--secondary Schooling," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(482), pages 705-734, October.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;
    ;

    JEL classification:

    • E24 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Consumption, Saving, Production, Employment, and Investment - - - Employment; Unemployment; Wages; Intergenerational Income Distribution; Aggregate Human Capital; Aggregate Labor Productivity
    • I23 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Higher Education; Research Institutions
    • I26 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Education - - - Returns to Education
    • J24 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demand and Supply of Labor - - - Human Capital; Skills; Occupational Choice; Labor Productivity

    NEP fields

    This paper has been announced in the following NEP Reports:

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ucl:cepeow:25-10. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Jake Anders (email available below). General contact details of provider: https://edirc.repec.org/data/epucluk.html .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service. RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.