IDEAS home Printed from https://ideas.repec.org/p/ubc/clssrn/clsrn_admin-2012-21.html
   My bibliography  Save this paper

Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment

Author

Listed:
  • Kroft, Kory
  • Lange, Fabian
  • Notowidigdo, Matthew J.

Abstract

This paper studies the role of employer behavior in generating “negative duration dependence†– the adverse effect of a longer unemployment spell – by sending fictitious resumes to real job postings in 100 U.S. cities. Our results indicate that the likelihood of receiving a callback for an interview significantly decreases with the length of a worker’s unemployment spell, with the majority of this decline occurring during the first eight months. We explore how this effect varies with local labor market conditions, and find that duration dependence is stronger when the labor market is tighter. We develop a theoretical framework that shows how the sign of this interaction effect can be used to discern among leading models of duration dependence based on employer screening, employer ranking, and human capital depreciation. Our results suggest that employer screening plays an important role in generating duration dependence; employers use the unemployment spell length as a signal of unobserved productivity and recognize that this signal is less informative in weak labor markets.

Suggested Citation

  • Kroft, Kory & Lange, Fabian & Notowidigdo, Matthew J., 2012. "Duration Dependence and Labor Market Conditions: Theory and Evidence from a Field Experiment," CLSSRN working papers clsrn_admin-2012-21, Vancouver School of Economics, revised 28 Sep 2012.
  • Handle: RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2012-21
    as

    Download full text from publisher

    File URL: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/workingpapers/CLSRN%20Working%20Paper%20no.%20101%20-%20Kroft,%20Lange%20and%20Notowidigo.pdf
    Download Restriction: no
    ---><---

    Other versions of this item:

    References listed on IDEAS

    as
    1. Guido Imbens & Lisa Lynch, 2006. "Re-employment probabilities over the business cycle," Portuguese Economic Journal, Springer;Instituto Superior de Economia e Gestao, vol. 5(2), pages 111-134, August.
    2. van den Berg, Gerard J & van Ours, Jan C, 1996. "Unemployment Dynamics and Duration Dependence," Journal of Labor Economics, University of Chicago Press, vol. 14(1), pages 100-125, January.
    3. V. Chernozhukov & I. Fernández-Val & A. Galichon, 2009. "Improving point and interval estimators of monotone functions by rearrangement," Biometrika, Biometrika Trust, vol. 96(3), pages 559-575.
    4. Christopher A. Pissarides & Barbara Petrongolo, 2001. "Looking into the Black Box: A Survey of the Matching Function," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 39(2), pages 390-431, June.
    5. Shavell, Steven & Weiss, Laurence, 1979. "The Optimal Payment of Unemployment Insurance Benefits over Time," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 87(6), pages 1347-1362, December.
    6. Alan B. Krueger & Andreas Mueller, 2011. "Job Search, Emotional Well-Being and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," Brookings Papers on Economic Activity, Economic Studies Program, The Brookings Institution, vol. 42(1 (Spring), pages 1-81.
    7. Machin, Stephen & Manning, Alan, 1999. "The causes and consequences of longterm unemployment in Europe," Handbook of Labor Economics, in: O. Ashenfelter & D. Card (ed.), Handbook of Labor Economics, edition 1, volume 3, chapter 47, pages 3085-3139, Elsevier.
    8. Lars Ljungqvist & Thomas J. Sargent, 1998. "The European Unemployment Dilemma," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 106(3), pages 514-550, June.
    9. Francisco M. Gonzalez & Shouyong Shi, 2010. "An Equilibrium Theory of Learning, Search, and Wages," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 78(2), pages 509-537, March.
    10. J. Heckman & B. Singer, 1984. "The Identifiability of the Proportional Hazard Model," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 51(2), pages 231-241.
    11. Acemoglu, Daron, 1995. "Public Policy in a Model of Long-Term Unemployment," Economica, London School of Economics and Political Science, vol. 62(246), pages 161-178, May.
    12. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas I., 2011. "Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    13. Stefan Eriksson & Dan-Olof Rooth, 2014. "Do Employers Use Unemployment as a Sorting Criterion When Hiring? Evidence from a Field Experiment," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 104(3), pages 1014-1039, March.
    14. Sushil Bikhchandani & David Hirshleifer & Ivo Welch, 1998. "Learning from the Behavior of Others: Conformity, Fads, and Informational Cascades," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 12(3), pages 151-170, Summer.
    15. Nicola Pavoni, 2009. "Optimal Unemployment Insurance, With Human Capital Depreciation, And Duration Dependence," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 50(2), pages 323-362, May.
    16. Marianne Bertrand & Sendhil Mullainathan, 2004. "Are Emily and Greg More Employable Than Lakisha and Jamal? A Field Experiment on Labor Market Discrimination," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 94(4), pages 991-1013, September.
    17. Ben Lockwood, 1991. "Information Externalities in the Labour Market and the Duration of Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 58(4), pages 733-753.
    18. Krueger, Alan B. & Mueller, Andreas I., 2011. "Job Search and Job Finding in a Period of Mass Unemployment: Evidence from High-Frequency Longitudinal Data," IZA Discussion Papers 5450, Institute of Labor Economics (IZA).
    Full references (including those not matched with items on IDEAS)

    Citations

    Blog mentions

    As found by EconAcademics.org, the blog aggregator for Economics research:
    1. Unemployment dynamics
      by James_Hamilton in Econbrowser on 2014-05-08 02:54:52

    Citations

    Citations are extracted by the CitEc Project, subscribe to its RSS feed for this item.
    as


    Cited by:

    1. Bennmarker, Helge & Skans, Oskar Nordström & Vikman, Ulrika, 2013. "Workfare for the old and long-term unemployed," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 25(C), pages 25-34.
    2. Shuaizhang Feng & Lars Lefgren & Brennan C. Platt & Bingyong Zheng, 2019. "Job search under asymmetric information: endogenous wage dispersion and unemployment stigma," Economic Theory, Springer;Society for the Advancement of Economic Theory (SAET), vol. 67(4), pages 817-851, June.
    3. R. Jason Faberman & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 327-357, July.
    4. Marianna Kudlyak & Damba Lkhagvasuren & Roman Susuyev, 2012. "Sorting by Skill over the Course of Job Search," Working Papers 12011, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    5. Warren Mosler & Damiano B. Silipo, 2016. "Maximizing Price Stability in a Monetary Economy," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_864, Levy Economics Institute.
    6. William D. Craighead, 2019. "Hysteresis In A New Keynesian Model," Economic Inquiry, Western Economic Association International, vol. 57(2), pages 1082-1097, April.
    7. Schwartz, J., 2015. "Optimal unemployment insurance: When search takes effort and money," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 36(C), pages 1-17.
    8. Regis Barnichon & Andrew Figura, 2014. "The Effects of Unemployment Benefits on Unemployment and Labor Force Participation: Evidence from 35 Years of Benefits Extensions," Finance and Economics Discussion Series 2014-65, Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (U.S.).
    9. Jon D. Wisman & Aaron Pacitti, 2013. "Ending the Crisis With Guaranteed Employment and Retraining," Working Papers 2013-12, American University, Department of Economics.
    10. Luc Behaghel & Bruno Crépon & Thomas Le Barbanchon, 2015. "Unintended Effects of Anonymous Résumés," American Economic Journal: Applied Economics, American Economic Association, vol. 7(3), pages 1-27, July.
    11. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2014. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit of the Labor Market for College Graduates," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    12. Richard B. Freeman, 2013. "Failing the Test? The Flexible U.S. Job Market in the Great Recession," NBER Working Papers 19587, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    13. Mosler, Warren & Silipo, Damiano B., 2017. "Maximizing price stability in a monetary economy," Journal of Policy Modeling, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 272-289.
    14. Nunley, John M. & Pugh, Adam & Romero, Nicholas & Seals, R. Alan, 2016. "College major, internship experience, and employment opportunities: Estimates from a résumé audit," Labour Economics, Elsevier, vol. 38(C), pages 37-46.
    15. Fernando Martins & Domingos Seward, 2019. "Into the heterogeneities in the Portuguese labour market: an empirical assessment," Working Papers w201908, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.
    16. Laura Pilossoph & Gregor Jarosch, 2014. "Hiring Practices, Duration Dependence, and Long-Term Unemployment," 2014 Meeting Papers 1256, Society for Economic Dynamics.
    17. Hacı Mehmet TAŞÇI & Ali Rıza ÖZDEMİR & Burak DARICI, 2015. "Which Group of Individuals are subjected to Get Long-Term Unemployed During and After a Recession? Evidence from Turkey," Sosyoekonomi Journal, Sosyoekonomi Society, issue 23(24).
    18. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2014. "An Examination of Racial Discrimination in the Labor Market for Recent College Graduates: Estimates from the Field," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-06, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    19. Fernando Martins & Domingos Seward, 2020. "The measurement of labour market slack: An empirical analysis for Portugal," Economic Bulletin and Financial Stability Report Articles and Banco de Portugal Economic Studies, Banco de Portugal, Economics and Research Department.

    Most related items

    These are the items that most often cite the same works as this one and are cited by the same works as this one.
    1. Andrey Launov & Klaus Wälde, 2013. "Estimating Incentive And Welfare Effects Of Nonstationary Unemployment Benefits," International Economic Review, Department of Economics, University of Pennsylvania and Osaka University Institute of Social and Economic Research Association, vol. 54(4), pages 1159-1198, November.
    2. Namingit, Sheryll & Blankenau, William & Schwab, Benjamin, 2021. "Sick and tell: A field experiment analyzing the effects of an illness-related employment gap on the callback rate," Journal of Economic Behavior & Organization, Elsevier, vol. 185(C), pages 865-882.
    3. Nicola Pavoni & G. L. Violante, 2007. "Optimal Welfare-to-Work Programs," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 74(1), pages 283-318.
    4. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2014. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit of the Labor Market for College Graduates," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2014-04, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    5. R. Jason Faberman & Marianna Kudlyak, 2019. "The Intensity of Job Search and Search Duration," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 11(3), pages 327-357, July.
    6. Spinnewijn, Johannes, 2013. "Training and search during unemployment," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 99(C), pages 49-65.
    7. Gabriel P. Mathy, 2018. "Hysteresis and persistent long-term unemployment: the American Beveridge Curve of the Great Depression and World War II," Cliometrica, Springer;Cliometric Society (Association Francaise de Cliométrie), vol. 12(1), pages 127-152, January.
    8. Nüß, Patrick, 2017. "Duration Dependence as an Unemployment Stigma: Evidence from a Field Experiment in Germany," GLO Discussion Paper Series 88, Global Labor Organization (GLO).
    9. Wolfgang Nagl & Michael Weber, 2016. "Stuck in a trap? Long-term unemployment under two-tier unemployment compensation schemes," ifo Working Paper Series 231, ifo Institute - Leibniz Institute for Economic Research at the University of Munich.
    10. Michael W. L. Elsby & Ryan Michaels & David Ratner, 2015. "The Beveridge Curve: A Survey," Journal of Economic Literature, American Economic Association, vol. 53(3), pages 571-630, September.
    11. John M. Nunley & Adam Pugh & Nicholas Romero & Richard Alan Seals, Jr., 2015. "Unemployment, Underemployment, and Employment Opportunities: Results from a Correspondence Audit," Auburn Economics Working Paper Series auwp2015-13, Department of Economics, Auburn University.
    12. Kyle Herkenhoff & Lee Ohanian, 2019. "The Impact of Foreclosure Delay on U.S. Employment," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 31, pages 63-83, January.
    13. Robert E. Hall & Sam Schulhofer-Wohl, 2018. "Measuring Job-Finding Rates and Matching Efficiency with Heterogeneous Job-Seekers," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, American Economic Association, vol. 10(1), pages 1-32, January.
    14. Marianna Kudlyak & Damba Lkhagvasuren & Roman Susuyev, 2012. "Sorting by Skill over the Course of Job Search," Working Papers 12011, Concordia University, Department of Economics, revised 18 Apr 2012.
    15. Camille Landais, 2015. "Assessing the Welfare Effects of Unemployment Benefits Using the Regression Kink Design," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, American Economic Association, vol. 7(4), pages 243-278, November.
    16. Johannes F. Schmieder & Till von Wachter & Stefan Bender, 2013. "The Causal Effect of Unemployment Duration on Wages: Evidence from Unemployment Insurance Extensions," NBER Working Papers 19772, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kyle F Herkenhoff, 2019. "The Impact of Consumer Credit Access on Unemployment," Review of Economic Studies, Oxford University Press, vol. 86(6), pages 2605-2642.
    18. Hie Ahn & James Hamilton, 2016. "Heterogeneity and Unemployment Dynamics," Working Papers id:11130, eSocialSciences.
    19. Ioannis Kospentaris, 2021. "Unobserved Heterogeneity and Skill Loss in a Structural Model of Duration Dependence," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 39, pages 280-303, January.
    20. Fernández-Blanco, Javier & Preugschat, Edgar, 2018. "On the effects of ranking by unemployment duration," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 104(C), pages 92-110.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Duration dependence; screening; business cycle; skill depreciation;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • J64 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Mobility, Unemployment, Vacancies, and Immigrant Workers - - - Unemployment: Models, Duration, Incidence, and Job Search

    Statistics

    Access and download statistics

    Corrections

    All material on this site has been provided by the respective publishers and authors. You can help correct errors and omissions. When requesting a correction, please mention this item's handle: RePEc:ubc:clssrn:clsrn_admin-2012-21. See general information about how to correct material in RePEc.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: . General contact details of provider: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/ .

    If you have authored this item and are not yet registered with RePEc, we encourage you to do it here. This allows to link your profile to this item. It also allows you to accept potential citations to this item that we are uncertain about.

    If CitEc recognized a bibliographic reference but did not link an item in RePEc to it, you can help with this form .

    If you know of missing items citing this one, you can help us creating those links by adding the relevant references in the same way as above, for each refering item. If you are a registered author of this item, you may also want to check the "citations" tab in your RePEc Author Service profile, as there may be some citations waiting for confirmation.

    For technical questions regarding this item, or to correct its authors, title, abstract, bibliographic or download information, contact: Vivian Tran The email address of this maintainer does not seem to be valid anymore. Please ask Vivian Tran to update the entry or send us the correct address (email available below). General contact details of provider: http://www.clsrn.econ.ubc.ca/ .

    Please note that corrections may take a couple of weeks to filter through the various RePEc services.

    IDEAS is a RePEc service hosted by the Research Division of the Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis . RePEc uses bibliographic data supplied by the respective publishers.