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International Risk Sharing in the EMU

Author

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  • Alessandro Ferrari
  • Anna Rogantini Picco

Abstract

This paper aims at empirically assessing the effect of the adoption of the euro on the ability of euro area member states to smooth consumption and share risk. With the objective of evaluating the economic performance of euro area countries in the scenario where the euro had not been adopted, we construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables via the Synthetic Control Method. In order to get some preliminary measures of risk sharing, we first compute bilateral consumption correlations and Brandt-Cochrane- Santa Clara Indexes across euro area member states. We then decompose risk sharing in different channels by means of the Asdrubali, Sorensen and Yosha (1996) output decomposition. Our preliminary measures and our decomposition of risk sharing are computed with both actual and synthetic data so as to identify whether there has been any effect of the adoption of the euro on risk sharing and through which channels it has occurred. We find that the euro has not affected the level of risk sharing across euro area countries, but has partially reduced the ability of member states to smooth consumption. We attribute this change to the higher GDP growth generated by the adoption of the euro, which has been accompanied by a greater output volatility. We also report differential effects for core and periphery countries, showing that the former have not suffered any negative effects from the adoption of the euro in terms of risk sharing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Ferrari & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2016. "International Risk Sharing in the EMU," Working Papers 17, European Stability Mechanism.
  • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:17
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    Cited by:

    1. Lannoo, Karel & Thomadakis, Apostolos, 2019. "Rebranding Capital Markets Union: A market finance action plan," ECMI Papers 500, Centre for European Policy Studies.
    2. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2018. "A fire department for the Euro area: reflections on a fiscal risk-sharing capacity," MPRA Paper 83965, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    3. Jeongseok Song & Doojin Ryu, 2018. "Aging effects on consumption risk-sharing channels in European countries," Zbornik radova Ekonomskog fakulteta u Rijeci/Proceedings of Rijeka Faculty of Economics, University of Rijeka, Faculty of Economics, vol. 36(2), pages 585-617.
    4. Plamen Nikolov & Paolo Pasimeni, 2019. "Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions," Economics Working Paper Archive wp_926, Levy Economics Institute.
    5. Valentina Milano, 2017. "Risk Sharing in the Euro Zone: the Role of European Institutions," Working Papers CELEG 1701, Dipartimento di Economia e Finanza, LUISS Guido Carli.
    6. Gilles Dufrénot & Jean-Baptiste Gossé & Caroline Clerc, 2021. "Risk sharing in Europe: new empirical evidence on the capital markets channel," Applied Economics, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 53(2), pages 262-276, January.
    7. Balli, Faruk & Pericoli, Filippo M. & Pierucci, Eleonora, 2018. "Globalization and international risk-sharing: The role of social and political integration," European Journal of Political Economy, Elsevier, vol. 55(C), pages 324-345.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Sharing Mechansims; Consumption Smoothing Channels; Euro Area; Synthetic Control Method;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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