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International Risk Sharing in the EMU

Author

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  • Alessandro Ferrari
  • Anna Rogantini Picco

Abstract

This paper aims at empirically assessing the effect of the adoption of the euro on the ability of euro area member states to smooth consumption and share risk. With the objective of evaluating the economic performance of euro area countries in the scenario where the euro had not been adopted, we construct a counterfactual dataset of macroeconomic variables via the Synthetic Control Method. In order to get some preliminary measures of risk sharing, we first compute bilateral consumption correlations and Brandt-Cochrane- Santa Clara Indexes across euro area member states. We then decompose risk sharing in different channels by means of the Asdrubali, Sorensen and Yosha (1996) output decomposition. Our preliminary measures and our decomposition of risk sharing are computed with both actual and synthetic data so as to identify whether there has been any effect of the adoption of the euro on risk sharing and through which channels it has occurred. We find that the euro has not affected the level of risk sharing across euro area countries, but has partially reduced the ability of member states to smooth consumption. We attribute this change to the higher GDP growth generated by the adoption of the euro, which has been accompanied by a greater output volatility. We also report differential effects for core and periphery countries, showing that the former have not suffered any negative effects from the adoption of the euro in terms of risk sharing.

Suggested Citation

  • Alessandro Ferrari & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2016. "International Risk Sharing in the EMU," Working Papers 17, European Stability Mechanism.
  • Handle: RePEc:stm:wpaper:17
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    File URL: https://edit.esm.europa.eu/sites/default/files/wp_17_final.pdf
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Gabrisch, Hubert, 2018. "A fire department for the Euro area: reflections on a fiscal risk-sharing capacity," MPRA Paper 83965, University Library of Munich, Germany.

    More about this item

    Keywords

    Risk Sharing Mechansims; Consumption Smoothing Channels; Euro Area; Synthetic Control Method;

    JEL classification:

    • F32 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Current Account Adjustment; Short-term Capital Movements
    • F36 - International Economics - - International Finance - - - Financial Aspects of Economic Integration
    • F41 - International Economics - - Macroeconomic Aspects of International Trade and Finance - - - Open Economy Macroeconomics

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