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The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations

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  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan
  • Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji
  • Mr. Carlo Cottarelli

Abstract

We assess the extent to which fiscal transfers smooth regional shocks in three large federations: the U.S., Canada, and Australia. We find that fiscal transfers offset 4-11 percent of idiosyncratic shocks (risk-sharing) and 13-24 percent of permanent shocks (redistribution). This fiscal insurance largely operates through automatic stabilizers embedded in a central budget primarily through federal taxes and transfers to individuals, rather than transfers from the central government to state budgets. These results have implications for the design of fiscal risk-sharing mechanisms in the euro area.

Suggested Citation

  • Mr. Tigran Poghosyan & Mr. Abdelhak S Senhadji & Mr. Carlo Cottarelli, 2016. "The Role of Fiscal Transfers in Smoothing Regional Shocks: Evidence from Existing Federations," IMF Working Papers 2016/141, International Monetary Fund.
    • Handle: RePEc:imf:imfwpa:2016/141
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    2. Linda Andersson, 2004. "Regional Risk-sharing Provided by the Fiscal System: Empirical Evidence from Sweden," Regional Studies, Taylor & Francis Journals, vol. 38(3), pages 269-280.
    3. Fabian Bornhorst & Ms. Annalisa Fedelino & Jan Gottschalk & Miss Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 2011/002, International Monetary Fund.
    4. Bayoumi, Tamim & Masson, Paul R., 1995. "Fiscal flows in the United States and Canada: Lessons for monetary union in Europe," European Economic Review, Elsevier, vol. 39(2), pages 253-274, February.
    5. Fabian Bornhorst & Annalisa Fedelino & Jan Gottschalk & Gabriela Dobrescu, 2011. "When and How to Adjust Beyond the Business Cycle? A Guide to Structural Fiscal Balances," IMF Technical Notes and Manuals 11/02, International Monetary Fund.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Roel Beetsma & Simone Cima & Jacopo Cimadomo, 2021. "Fiscal Transfers without Moral Hazard?," International Journal of Central Banking, International Journal of Central Banking, vol. 17(3), pages 95-153, September.
    2. Dynnikova, O. & Kyobe, A. & Slavov, S., 2022. "Regional disparities and fiscal federalism in Russia," Journal of the New Economic Association, New Economic Association, vol. 55(3), pages 102-138.
    3. Hansj?rg Bl?chliger & Bal?zs ?gert, 2017. "Intergovernmental Transfers: Are they pro- or counter-cyclical?," ECONOMIA PUBBLICA, FrancoAngeli Editore, vol. 2017(3), pages 5-20.
    4. Alessandro Ferrari & Anna Rogantini Picco, 2016. "International Risk Sharing in the EMU," Working Papers 17, European Stability Mechanism.
    5. Plamen Nikolov & Paolo Pasimeni, 2023. "Fiscal Stabilization in the United States: Lessons for Monetary Unions," Open Economies Review, Springer, vol. 34(1), pages 113-153, February.
    6. Beetsma, Roel & Cima, Simone & Cimadomo, Jacopo, 2018. "A minimal moral hazard central stabilisation capacity for the EMU based on world trade," CEPR Discussion Papers 12600, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
    7. Maxime Uhoda, 2020. "Which competences for sub-national jurisdictions and how to finance them? The economic theory of fiscal federalism from the foundations to nowadays," Journal of Social and Economic Development, Springer;Institute for Social and Economic Change, vol. 22(1), pages 91-112, June.
    8. Luca Rossi, 2021. "Revisiting the Case for a Fiscal Union: the Federal Fiscal Channel of Downside-Risk Sharing in the United States," Temi di discussione (Economic working papers) 1351, Bank of Italy, Economic Research and International Relations Area.

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    WP; risk pooling; fiscal federalism; risk-sharing; redistribution; estimation result; two-step estimation method; OLS estimator; coefficient estimate; confidence level; redistribution effect; redistribution estimate; per capita income; potential GDP; risk-sharing estimate; Fiscal transfers; Disposable income; Personal income; Global;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E6 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook
    • C4 - Mathematical and Quantitative Methods - - Econometric and Statistical Methods: Special Topics
    • H6 - Public Economics - - National Budget, Deficit, and Debt

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