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The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence

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  • Diop, Samba
  • Asongu, Simplice
  • Tchamyou, Vanessa

Abstract

This paper measures the macroeconomic impact of recent political crisis, protest and uprisings in Africa with the generalized synthetic control method and evaluates the role played by natural resource dependence in the modulation of the impact. We find that political crisis, protests and uprisings have a significant and negative impact on economic growth while the impact is positive on investment and price level. For economic growth, the deviation of the actual series from the counterfactual is negative, instantaneous, persistent and highly significant; indicating non-negligible costs of the shock. Indeed, dependence on natural resources amplifies the negative effect of political crisis, protests and uprisings on GDP. Finally, the more the treated country depends on natural resources, the more it becomes resilient from the investment losses caused by political crisis.

Suggested Citation

  • Diop, Samba & Asongu, Simplice & Tchamyou, Vanessa, 2021. "The Macroeconomic Impact of Recent Political Conflicts in Africa: Generalized Synthetic Counterfactual Evidence," MPRA Paper 110696, University Library of Munich, Germany.
    • Handle: RePEc:pra:mprapa:110696
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    Cited by:

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    More about this item

    Keywords

    political conflicts; economic growth; Africa;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • K42 - Law and Economics - - Legal Procedure, the Legal System, and Illegal Behavior - - - Illegal Behavior and the Enforcement of Law
    • O17 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economic Development - - - Formal and Informal Sectors; Shadow Economy; Institutional Arrangements
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa
    • P17 - Political Economy and Comparative Economic Systems - - Capitalist Economies - - - Performance and Prospects

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