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Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers

Author

Listed:
  • Christophe Blot

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Marion Cochard
  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Bruno Ducoudre

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Danielle Schweisguth

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Xavier Timbeau

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

Abstract

EMU countries have engaged in fiscal consolidation since 2011. This paper deals with the public debt and output dynamic consequences of this strategy. To this end, we develop a simple macroeconomic model of the Euro area, where fiscal multiplier is time-varying. Recent empirical evidence has indeed shown that fiscal multipliers were higher in time of crisis. We then analyze the ability of EMU countries to comply with the new fiscal rules on public debt. The path of public debt and output gap is simulated according to different hypotheses related to fiscal multiplier, monetary policy and hysteresis effects. Not all EMU countries would be able to reach a 60 % debt-to-GDP ratio in 2032. An alternative strategy may be to spread austerity in order to report part of consolidation to periods where the fiscal multiplier will be weaker. The gain of spreading austerity may yet be partly offset by higher risk premium. There is then a need to find institutional arrangements to avoid panics in the sovereign debt markets. Finally, it is shown that it would not be very efficient to implement an expansionary fiscal policy in Germany in order to balance austerity in the Euro area. Since output gap is nearly closed in Germany, the multiplier effect of a positive fiscal stance would be low and spillover effects would not be significant.

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  • Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudre & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/5rnlf639ie8, Sciences Po.
  • Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5rnlf639ie8pcbhohrk7dr9haa
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Cited by:

    1. Christophe Blot & Jerôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Xavier Timeau, 2015. "Back to fiscal consolidation in Europe and its dual tradeoff : now of later, through spending cuts or tax hikes," Documents de Travail de l'OFCE 2015-11, Observatoire Francais des Conjonctures Economiques (OFCE).
    2. Christophe Blot & Marion Cochard & Jérôme Creel & Bruno Ducoudré & Danielle Schweisguth & Xavier Timbeau, 2014. "Fiscal Consolidation, Public Debt and Output Dynamics in the Euro Area: lessons from a simple model with time-varying fiscal multipliers," Revue d'économie politique, Dalloz, vol. 124(6), pages 953-989.
    3. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Christophe Blot & Christine Rifflart & Xavier Timbeau & Sabine Le Bayon & Catherine Mathieu & Mathieu Plane & Christi, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation: Perspectives économiques 2014-2015 pour l'économie mondiale," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/3rkj9m8cf38, Sciences Po.
    4. Xavier Timbeau, 2015. "A diverging Europe on the edge: The independent Annual Growth Survey 2015," Sciences Po publications info:hdl:2441/4s2r6d8kua9, Sciences Po.
    5. Serranito, Francisco, 2015. "Dévaluation interne, politiques structurelles et réductions des déficits publics : les réponses apportées par la « troïka » sont-elles un remède aux déséquilibres externes des pays périphériques de la," Revue de la Régulation - Capitalisme, institutions, pouvoirs, Association Recherche et Régulation, vol. 18.
    6. Céline Antonin & Christophe Blot & Amel Falah & Sabine Le Bayon & Hervé Péléraux & Christine Rifflart & Xavier Timbeau & Catherine Mathieu & Mathieu Plane, 2014. "Le piège de la déflation," Post-Print hal-01093020, HAL.
    7. Christian Thimann, 2015. "The Microeconomic Dimensions of the Eurozone Crisis and Why European Politics Cannot Solve Them," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 29(3), pages 141-164, Summer.
    8. Gerard Cornilleau & Jerome Creel, 2014. "Financialisation and the Financial and Economic Crises: The Case of France," FESSUD studies fstudy22, Financialisation, Economy, Society & Sustainable Development (FESSUD) Project.
    9. Karim Triki, 2016. "Expenditure-based Consolidation: Experiences and Outcomes – Workshop proceedings," European Economy - Discussion Papers 2015 - 026, Directorate General Economic and Financial Affairs (DG ECFIN), European Commission.

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    Keywords

    Fiscal consolidation; Fiscal multiplier; Public debt; Macroeconomic Performance;

    JEL classification:

    • E61 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Policy Objectives; Policy Designs and Consistency; Policy Coordination
    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy
    • E47 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Money and Interest Rates - - - Forecasting and Simulation: Models and Applications

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