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La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, un bilan critique

  • Jérôme Creel


  • Henri Sterdyniak


La théorie budgétaire du niveau des prix, soit en anglais la Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, (FTPL), a donné lieu à une intense littérature dans les années récentes1 (Leeper [1991], Sims [1994], Woodford [1994, 1995, 1996, 1998, 1999 et 2000], Canzoneri et alii [1998], Cochrane [1999, 2000], Christiano et Fitzgerald [2000], et, de façon critique, McCallum [1998] et Buiter [1998, 1999, 2000]). Cette littérature présente plusieurs particularités curieuses. Elle est purement théorique ; elle ne part d’aucun fait empirique observé ; elle n’a aucune application pratique ; elle n’a aucun retentissement dans le débat public de politique économique. Il s’agit d’une pure scholastique puisqu’il s’agit d’étudier la détermination de l’inflation dans une économie sans autorités monétaires actives, à prix parfaitement flexibles (...).

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number 2000-03.

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Date of creation: Nov 2000
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Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/5122
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  1. Willem Buiter, 2000. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level, Again," CESifo Working Paper Series 303, CESifo Group Munich.
  2. Richard H. Clarida & Jordi Gali & Mark Gertler, 1998. "Monetary policy rules in practice," Proceedings, Federal Reserve Bank of San Francisco, issue Mar.
  3. Charles T. Carlstrom & Timothy S. Fuerst, 1999. "Money growth and inflation: does fiscal policy matter?," Economic Commentary, Federal Reserve Bank of Cleveland, issue Apr.
  4. Jeffrey C. Fuhrer, 1995. "The [un]importance of forward-looking behavior in price specifications," Working Papers 95-6, Federal Reserve Bank of Boston.
  5. Cushing, Matthew J., 1999. "The indeterminacy of prices under interest rate pegging: The non-Ricardian case," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 44(1), pages 131-148, August.
  6. Gerlach, Stefan & Schnabel, Gert, 2000. "The Taylor rule and interest rates in the EMU area," Economics Letters, Elsevier, vol. 67(2), pages 165-171, May.
  7. Woodford, Michael, 1994. "Monetary Policy and Price Level Determinacy in a Cash-in-Advance Economy," Economic Theory, Springer, vol. 4(3), pages 345-80.
  8. Barro, Robert J., 1989. "Interest-rate targeting," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 23(1), pages 3-30, January.
  9. Thomas J. Sargent & Neil Wallace, 1981. "Some unpleasant monetarist arithmetic," Quarterly Review, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis, issue Fall.
  10. McCallum, Bennett T., 1981. "Price level determinacy with an interest rate policy rule and rational expectations," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 8(3), pages 319-329.
  11. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak & Jean-Claude Berthlemy, 1999. "Pour en finir avec la masse monétaire," Revue Économique, Programme National Persée, vol. 50(3), pages 523-533.
  12. Bergin, Paul R., 2000. "Fiscal solvency and price level determination in a monetary union," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 45(1), pages 37-53, February.
  13. Canzoneri, Matthew B & Cumby, Robert & Diba, Behzad, 1998. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," CEPR Discussion Papers 1772, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  14. Barro, Robert J, 1974. "Are Government Bonds Net Wealth?," Journal of Political Economy, University of Chicago Press, vol. 82(6), pages 1095-1117, Nov.-Dec..
  15. Buiter, Willem H., 1999. "The Fallacy of the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," CEPR Discussion Papers 2205, C.E.P.R. Discussion Papers.
  16. Thomas J. Sargent, 1982. "Beyond demand and supply curves in macroeconomics," Staff Report 77, Federal Reserve Bank of Minneapolis.
  17. John H. Cochrane, 2000. "Money as Stock: Price Level Determination with no Money Demand," NBER Working Papers 7498, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  18. Jérôme Creel & Henri Sterdyniak, 1999. "La politique monétaire sans monnaie," Revue de l'OFCE, Programme National Persée, vol. 70(1), pages 111-153.
  19. Stephanie Schmitt-Grohe & Martin Uribe, 1998. "Price Level Determinacy and Monetary Policy under a Balanced-Budget Requirement," Departmental Working Papers 199833, Rutgers University, Department of Economics.
  20. Rao Aiyagari, S. & Gertler, Mark, 1985. "The backing of government bonds and monetarism," Journal of Monetary Economics, Elsevier, vol. 16(1), pages 19-44, July.
  21. Wicksell, Knut, 1907. "The Influence of the Rate of Interest on Prices," History of Economic Thought Articles, McMaster University Archive for the History of Economic Thought, vol. 17, pages 213-220.
  22. Lawrence J. Christiano & Terry J. Fitzgerald, 2000. "Understanding the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level," NBER Working Papers 7668, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
  23. Blanchard, Olivier Jean & Kahn, Charles M, 1980. "The Solution of Linear Difference Models under Rational Expectations," Econometrica, Econometric Society, vol. 48(5), pages 1305-11, July.
  24. repec:oup:qjecon:v:113:y:1998:i:3:p:949-963 is not listed on IDEAS
  25. Olivier Jean Blanchard & Stanley Fischer, 1989. "Lectures on Macroeconomics," MIT Press Books, The MIT Press, edition 1, volume 1, number 0262022834, June.
  26. Woodford, Michael, 1995. "Price-level determinacy without control of a monetary aggregate," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 43(1), pages 1-46, December.
  27. Taylor, John B., 1993. "Discretion versus policy rules in practice," Carnegie-Rochester Conference Series on Public Policy, Elsevier, vol. 39(1), pages 195-214, December.
  28. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages C93-108, March.
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