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Using Structural Balance Data to Test the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level: Some International Evidence

Listed author(s):
  • Jérôme Creel

    (Observatoire français des conjonctures économiques)

  • Hervé Le Bihan

    (Centre de recherche de la Banque de France)

The fiscal theory of the price level has recently received important attention as an alternative theory of price determination. Empirical tests of the FTPL have been rare, and have undergone forceful criticism by Cochrane [Cochrane, J., 1998. A frictionless view of US inflation. NBER Macroeconomics Annual. MIT Press, pp. 323–384] based on “observational equivalence” arguments. This paper proposes two extensions to the empirics of the FTPL. First, we apply the methodology initiated by Canzoneri et al. [Canzoneri, M.B., Cumby, R.E., Diba, B.T., 2001. Is the price level determined by the needs of fiscal solvency? American Economic Review 91, 1221–1238] to European data. Second, we use structural balance data, in order to overcome Cochrane’s critique. Our conclusion is that for neither country the data support a FTPL interpretation.

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Paper provided by Sciences Po in its series Sciences Po publications with number info:hdl:2441/3263.

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Date of creation: Jun 2006
Publication status: Published in Journal of Macroeconomics, 2006, pp.338-360
Handle: RePEc:spo:wpmain:info:hdl:2441/3263
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  1. Michael Woodford, 1998. "Doing Without Money: Controlling Inflation in a Post-Monetary World," Review of Economic Dynamics, Elsevier for the Society for Economic Dynamics, vol. 1(1), pages 173-219, January.
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  15. Matthew B. Canzoneri & Robert E. Cumby & Behzad T. Diba, 2001. "Is the Price Level Determined by the Needs of Fiscal Solvency?," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 91(5), pages 1221-1238, December.
  16. Leith, Campbell & Wren-Lewis, Simon, 2000. "Interactions between Monetary and Fiscal Policy Rules," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(462), pages 93-108, March.
  17. Willem H. Buiter, 2002. "The Fiscal Theory Of The Price Level: A Critique," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 112(481), pages 459-480, July.
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