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Convergence et divergence budgétaire en Afrique : le rôle des Communautés économiques régionales et des Unions économiques et monétaires

Author

Listed:
  • Vigninou Gammadigbe

    (Université de Lomé [Togo])

  • Ismaël Issifou

    (UO - Université d'Orléans)

  • Daouda Sembene

    (Fonds Monétaire International)

  • Sampawende Jules Tapsoba

    (Fonds Monétaire International)

Abstract

La théorie de l'endogénéité des Zones Monétaires Optimales (ZMO) a identifié deux canaux de justification ex-post du critère de synchronisation des cycles : l'intensité commerciale et la convergence budgétaire des pays membres. Dans ce papier, nous analysons dans une perspective empirique le rôle des Unions Économiques et Monétaires africaines dans la convergence budgétaire des pays membres sur la période de 1990 à 2015. Les résultats de nos estimations montrent que les Communautés Économiques Régionales (CER) africaines réduisent significativement la divergence budgétaire des pays membres. En usant d'une approche séquentielle d'estimation, l'étude démontre que les Zones Monétaires africaines sont plus efficaces que les autres Communautés Économiques Régionales (CER) en matière d'accélération de la convergence des indicateurs budgétaires. Ces résultats mettent en lumière la vraisemblance et la pertinence de l'hypothèse d'auto-validation dans le temps des Unions Monétaires africaines existantes et prospectives malgré les faibles niveaux de synchronisation des cycles et d'intensité commerciale.

Suggested Citation

  • Vigninou Gammadigbe & Ismaël Issifou & Daouda Sembene & Sampawende Jules Tapsoba, 2018. "Convergence et divergence budgétaire en Afrique : le rôle des Communautés économiques régionales et des Unions économiques et monétaires," Post-Print hal-01723117, HAL.
    • Handle: RePEc:hal:journl:hal-01723117
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    More about this item

    Keywords

    Politique Budgétaire; Zone Monétaire; Convergence; Afrique;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • E62 - Macroeconomics and Monetary Economics - - Macroeconomic Policy, Macroeconomic Aspects of Public Finance, and General Outlook - - - Fiscal Policy; Modern Monetary Theory
    • F15 - International Economics - - Trade - - - Economic Integration
    • O55 - Economic Development, Innovation, Technological Change, and Growth - - Economywide Country Studies - - - Africa

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