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The Future of the Elderly Population Health Status: Filling a Knowledge Gap




The ageing process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model (FEM) family for thirteen OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable longterm trends in individual health status across OECD. The FEM is a multi-risk multi-morbidity dynamic microsimulation model to project health status and health demand. Given the dynamic structure of the model, we allow individual health status to evolve over time according to individual characteristics. Our model provides forecasts of the evolution of life expectancy and prevalences of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find a catch-up of the considered European countries main chronic conditions prevalence with the US and a relevant and persistent educational gradient in the health status of elderly patients. Our findings represent a valid contribution to support policy makers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

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  • Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Kim Daejung & Dana Goldman & Tadeja Gracner & Andrea Piano Mortari & Bryan Tysinger, 2020. "The Future of the Elderly Population Health Status: Filling a Knowledge Gap," CEIS Research Paper 504, Tor Vergata University, CEIS, revised 22 Dec 2020.
  • Handle: RePEc:rtv:ceisrp:504

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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Giordana, Gastón A. & Pi Alperin, María Noel, 2023. "Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item


    Population ageing; Disease burden; Microsimulation; Health care demand; Education gradient; OECD.;
    All these keywords.

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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