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The Evolution of Longevity: Evidence from Canada

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  • Kevin Milligan
  • Tammy Schirle

Abstract

We find a steep earnings-longevity gradient using fifty years of administrative data from Canada, with men in the top ventile of earnings living eight years (11 percent) longer than those in the bottom ventile. For women, the difference is 3.6 years. Unlike the United States, this longevity gradient in Canada has shifted uniformly through time, with approximately equal gains across the earnings distribution. We compare our results using cross-sectional and cohort-based methods, finding similar trends but a steeper gradient when using cohorts. For middle-aged men, we find a cessation of mortality improvements in recent years, comparable to changes observed in the United States. Changes in income do not explain cross-time or cross-country differences.

Suggested Citation

  • Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2018. "The Evolution of Longevity: Evidence from Canada," NBER Working Papers 24929, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    • Handle: RePEc:nbr:nberwo:24929
    Note: AG
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    Cited by:

    1. James Banks & Janet Currie & Sonya Krutikova & Kjell G. Salvanes & Hannes Schwandt, 2021. "The Evolution of Mortality Inequality in 11 OECD Countries: Introduction," Fiscal Studies, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 42(1), pages 9-23, March.
    2. Jan L. M. Dhaene & Moshe A. Milevsky, 2024. "Egalitarian pooling and sharing of longevity risk', a.k.a. 'The many ways to skin a tontine cat," Papers 2402.00855, arXiv.org.
    3. Glenzer, Franca & Michaud, Pierre-Carl & Staubli, Stefan, 2025. "Frames, incentives, and education: Effectiveness of interventions to delay public pension claiming," Journal of Public Economics, Elsevier, vol. 248(C).
    4. Connolly, Marie & Leroux, Marie-Louise & Konou, Akakpo Domefa, 2025. "Evaluating the relationship between income, survival and loss of autonomy among older Canadians," The Journal of the Economics of Ageing, Elsevier, vol. 31(C).
    5. Guy Lacroix & Francois Laliberté‐Auger & Pierre‐Carl Michaud & Daniel Parent, 2021. "The effect of college education on health and mortality: Evidence from Canada," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 105-118, November.
    6. Paul Bingley & Claus Thustrup Kreiner & Benjamin Ly Serena, 2025. "Socioeconomic Inequality in Longevity: A Multidimensional Approach," CESifo Working Paper Series 12249, CESifo.
    7. Adriana Lleras‐Muney, 2022. "Education and income gradients in longevity: The role of policy," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 55(1), pages 5-37, February.
    8. Dhaene, Jan & Milevsky, Moshe A., 2024. "Egalitarian pooling and sharing of longevity risk a.k.a. can an administrator help skin the tontine cat?," Insurance: Mathematics and Economics, Elsevier, vol. 119(C), pages 238-250.
    9. Milevsky, Moshe A., 2020. "Swimming with wealthy sharks: longevity, volatility and the value of risk pooling," Journal of Pension Economics and Finance, Cambridge University Press, vol. 19(2), pages 217-246, April.
    10. Brant Abbott & Giovanni Gallipoli, 2018. "Human Capital Inequality: Empirical Evidence," Working Papers 2018-085, Human Capital and Economic Opportunity Working Group.
    11. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2025. "Retirement Incentives and Decisions Across the Income Distribution: Evidence in Canada," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: The Effects of Pension Reforms on the Income Distribution of Retirees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    12. Mathieu Lefebvre & Pierre Pestieau & Gregory Ponthiere, 2024. "Missing Poor in the U.S," The Journal of Economic Inequality, Springer;Society for the Study of Economic Inequality, vol. 22(4), pages 865-891, December.
    13. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2018. "Rich Man, Poor Man: The Policy Implications of Canadians Living Longer," e-briefs 282, C.D. Howe Institute.
    14. Frank T Denton & Byron G Spencer & Terry A Yip, 2019. "Age-Income Dynamics Over The Life Course: Cohort Transition Patterns In Relative Income Based On Canadian Tax Returns," Department of Economics Working Papers 2019-02, McMaster University.
    15. Ana Debon & Steven Haberman & Gabriella Piscopo, 2024. "Multipopulation mortality analysis: bringing out the unobservable with latent clustering," Quality & Quantity: International Journal of Methodology, Springer, vol. 58(6), pages 5107-5123, December.
    16. Kevin Milligan & Tammy Schirle, 2025. "Health Inequality at Older Ages in Canada," NBER Chapters, in: Social Security Programs and Retirement Around the World: Pension Reforms and the Health Distribution of Retirees, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    17. Kevin Milligan, 2024. "Innis Lecture: The time of your life: The mortality and longevity of Canadians," Canadian Journal of Economics/Revue canadienne d'économique, John Wiley & Sons, vol. 57(4), pages 1088-1108, November.

    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I14 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health - - - Health and Inequality
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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