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The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap

Author

Listed:
  • Vincenzo Atella
  • Federico Belotti
  • Daejung Kim
  • Dana Goldman
  • Tadeja Gracner
  • Andrea Piano Mortari
  • Bryan Tysinger

Abstract

The aging process in OECD countries calls for a better understanding of the future disease prevalence, life expectancy (LE) and patterns of inequalities in health outcomes. In this paper we present the results obtained from several dynamic microsimulation models of the Future Elderly Model family for 12 OECD countries, with the aim of reproducing for the first time comparable long‐term projections in individual health status across OECD countries. We provide projections of LE and prevalence of major chronic conditions and disabilities, overall, by gender and by education. We find that the prevalence of main chronic conditions in Europe is catching‐up with the United States and significant heterogeneity in the evolution of gender and educational gradients. Our findings represent a contribution to support policymakers in designing and implementing effective interventions in the healthcare sector.

Suggested Citation

  • Vincenzo Atella & Federico Belotti & Daejung Kim & Dana Goldman & Tadeja Gracner & Andrea Piano Mortari & Bryan Tysinger, 2021. "The future of the elderly population health status: Filling a knowledge gap," Health Economics, John Wiley & Sons, Ltd., vol. 30(S1), pages 11-29, November.
    • Handle: RePEc:wly:hlthec:v:30:y:2021:i:s1:p:11-29
    DOI: 10.1002/hec.4258
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    2. Giordana, Gastón A. & Pi Alperin, María Noel, 2023. "Old age takes its toll: Long-run projections of health-related public expenditure in Luxembourg," Economics & Human Biology, Elsevier, vol. 50(C).

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    More about this item

    JEL classification:

    • I1 - Health, Education, and Welfare - - Health
    • J1 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics
    • J11 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Demographic Trends, Macroeconomic Effects, and Forecasts
    • J14 - Labor and Demographic Economics - - Demographic Economics - - - Economics of the Elderly; Economics of the Handicapped; Non-Labor Market Discrimination

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