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Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying

Author

Listed:
  • Bodrova, Vera

    () (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Gvozdeva, Margarita

    () (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA))

  • Kazakova, Maria

    () (Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration (RANEPA); Gaidar Institute for Economic Policy)

Abstract

This paper examines the existing methods of long-term forecasting of macroeconomic indicators and analyzes the concept and theoretical basis of long-term fiscal sustainability of the country. In particular, we show that the planning and forecasting cover all aspects of socio-economic systems throughout the world's history. It is also noted that the analysis of current indicators of fiscal sustainability, such as budget deficits and public debt, are not enough for a full assessment of sustainability, since such figures do not take into account the implicit liabilities of the budget that may arise in the future. This requires a long-term forecast of socio-economic development of the country, based on internationally accepted methods of forecasting.

Suggested Citation

  • Bodrova, Vera & Gvozdeva, Margarita & Kazakova, Maria, 2015. "Methods of Long-term Forecasting: Comparative Analysis and Foreign Experience of Applying," Published Papers 2310, Russian Presidential Academy of National Economy and Public Administration.
  • Handle: RePEc:rnp:ppaper:2310
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    Keywords

    forecasting; prediction; socio-economic development; fiscal sustainability; macroeconomics;

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