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Population Aging and Fiscal Policy in Europe and the United States

Author

Listed:
  • Jagadeesh Gokhale
  • Bernd Raffelhüschen

Abstract

In this paper, we compare the total size of intertemporal public liabilities (IPLs) of several European countries and the United States. We utilize the machinery of generational accounting in order to calculate the composition of the countries IPLs, that is the sum of the explicit and implicit liabilities embedded in the respective fiscal policies. The findings suggest that present fiscal policies of all countries with the exception of Ireland have positive intertemporal liabilities and, hence, are unsustainable over the long-term. The study also confirms the claim made by advocates of generational accounting that explicit debt is a poor indicator of long-term fiscal sustainability. Among all EMU participants, those with the highest implicit liabilities report the lowest explicit debt. However, countries with the smallest or negative implicit liabilities have rather high explicit debt levels in the base year of the calculations reported here - 1995.

Suggested Citation

  • Jagadeesh Gokhale & Bernd Raffelhüschen, 2000. "Population Aging and Fiscal Policy in Europe and the United States," CESifo Working Paper Series 237, CESifo.
    • Handle: RePEc:ces:ceswps:_237
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    References listed on IDEAS

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    1. Alan J. Auerbach & Laurence J. Kotlikoff & Willi Leibfritz, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the World," NBER Books, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc, number auer99-1, October.
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    3. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1991. "Generational Accounts: A Meaningful Alternative to Deficit Accounting," NBER Chapters, in: Tax Policy and the Economy, Volume 5, pages 55-110, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
    4. Alan J. Auerbach & Jagadeesh Gokhale & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1994. "Generational Accounting: A Meaningful Way to Evaluate Fiscal Policy," Journal of Economic Perspectives, American Economic Association, vol. 8(1), pages 73-94, Winter.
    5. Bernd Raffelhuschen & Laurence J. Kotlikoff, 1999. "Generational Accounting around the Globe," American Economic Review, American Economic Association, vol. 89(2), pages 161-166, May.
    6. Cardarelli, Roberto & Sefton, James & Kotlikoff, Laurence J, 2000. "Generational Accounting in the UK," Economic Journal, Royal Economic Society, vol. 110(467), pages 547-574, November.
    7. Jagadeesh Gokhale & Benjamin R. Page & John Sturrock, 1999. "Generational Accounts for the United States: An Update," NBER Chapters, in: Generational Accounting around the World, pages 489-518, National Bureau of Economic Research, Inc.
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    Citations

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    Cited by:

    1. Christian Keuschnigg & Mirela Keuschnigg & Reinhard Koman & Erik Lüth & Bernd Raffelüschen, 2000. "Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria," Empirica, Springer;Austrian Institute for Economic Research;Austrian Economic Association, vol. 27(3), pages 225-252, September.
    2. repec:rnp:ppaper:2310 is not listed on IDEAS
    3. Marek Loužek, 2007. "Pension Reform in the Czech Republic - A Contribution into the Debate," Prague Economic Papers, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2007(1), pages 55-69.
    4. Christine Mayrhuber & Gerhard Rünstler & Thomas Url & Werner Eichhorst & Michael J. Kendzia & Maarten Gerard & Connie Nielsen, 2011. "Pension Systems in the EU. Contingent Liabilities and Assets in the Public and Private Sector," WIFO Studies, WIFO, number 43938.
    5. repec:rnp:ppaper:2308 is not listed on IDEAS
    6. Keuschnigg, Christian & Keuschnigg, Mirela & Koman, Reinhard, 2000. "Public Debt and Generational Balance in Austria Lueth, Erik; Raffelhueschen, Bernd," Economics Series 80, Institute for Advanced Studies.
    7. Marek Loužek, 2006. "Má důchodová reforma se zadlužením smysl? [Has pension reform with indebtedness a sense?]," Politická ekonomie, Prague University of Economics and Business, vol. 2006(2), pages 247-260.
    8. Westerhout, Ed, 2018. "Paying for the Ageing Crisis : Who, How and When?," Other publications TiSEM 417903d2-6318-4744-891e-1, Tilburg University, School of Economics and Management.
    9. Westerhout, Ed, 2018. "Paying for the Ageing Crisis : Who, How and When?," Discussion Paper 2018-001, Tilburg University, Center for Economic Research.
    10. repec:rnp:ppaper:2309 is not listed on IDEAS

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